Sam Lair
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slair.bsky.social
Sam Lair
@slair.bsky.social
520 followers 260 following 80 posts
Research Associate at CNS | Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter
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slair.bsky.social
Get all the details, including what my analysis suggests for future regional conflicts here:
www.fpri.org/article/2025...
Shallow Ramparts: Air and Missile Defenses in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Sam Lair, “Exhaustion and Inflection: Estimating Interceptor Expenditures in the Israel-Iran Conflict ,” Arms Control Wonk, June 24, 2025,
www.fpri.org
October 17, 2025 at 7:30 PM
slair.bsky.social
Please decker, it was only 8 million per year
August 28, 2025 at 10:48 PM
slair.bsky.social
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Ninety Percent Of The Time, The Missile Works Every Time: Iranian Missile Failure Rates During True Promise II
This is the first in a series of posts I am writing on True Promise II to complement the piece I did on ABM expenditures during the 12 Day War. I hope it [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
August 22, 2025 at 11:35 PM
slair.bsky.social
Seth wrote about the Houthis converting Russian air-to-air missiles to SAMs and mounting them on trucks. Truly some of the technicals of all time:

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
Thaqib-1 Anti-Air Missiles, In This Climate!? Potential Limitations of Houthi Ingenuity
What do the Houthis and Mad Max have in common? They share an amazing tenacity when it comes to being scrappy with their supplies. For example, this Houthi [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
August 21, 2025 at 10:56 PM
slair.bsky.social
Congrats! Very excited
June 28, 2025 at 8:28 PM