Seahawk Nerd
@seahawknerd.bsky.social
Bringing mathematical thinking to all things Seattle Seahawks. Results are retrospective; process-based analysis is more predictive of future outcomes.
Here are the best and worst picks by the Seahawks in the 2025 draft, from the perspective of whether each selection was a "steal" or a "reach" relative to consensus rankings.
Emmanwori and Zabel essentially cancel each other out. Martinez and Horton were excellent Day 3 steals.
Emmanwori and Zabel essentially cancel each other out. Martinez and Horton were excellent Day 3 steals.
April 27, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Here are the best and worst picks by the Seahawks in the 2025 draft, from the perspective of whether each selection was a "steal" or a "reach" relative to consensus rankings.
Emmanwori and Zabel essentially cancel each other out. Martinez and Horton were excellent Day 3 steals.
Emmanwori and Zabel essentially cancel each other out. Martinez and Horton were excellent Day 3 steals.
Using consensus big board rankings prior to the draft, we can evaluate how much value each team got from its draft selections and trades. Here's how each team did:
April 27, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Using consensus big board rankings prior to the draft, we can evaluate how much value each team got from its draft selections and trades. Here's how each team did:
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
OFFENSIVE TACKLES🧵
Ozzy Trapilo, Boston College
Logan Brown, Kansas
Jalen Travis, Iowa State
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Florida
OFFENSIVE TACKLES🧵
Ozzy Trapilo, Boston College
Logan Brown, Kansas
Jalen Travis, Iowa State
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Florida
April 11, 2025 at 6:11 PM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
OFFENSIVE TACKLES🧵
Ozzy Trapilo, Boston College
Logan Brown, Kansas
Jalen Travis, Iowa State
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Florida
OFFENSIVE TACKLES🧵
Ozzy Trapilo, Boston College
Logan Brown, Kansas
Jalen Travis, Iowa State
Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, Florida
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
DEFENSIVE LINE🧵
Kenneth Grant, Michigan
Darius Alexander, Toledo
Joshua Farmer, Florida State
Jamaree Caldwell, Oregon
Elijah Roberts, SMU
DEFENSIVE LINE🧵
Kenneth Grant, Michigan
Darius Alexander, Toledo
Joshua Farmer, Florida State
Jamaree Caldwell, Oregon
Elijah Roberts, SMU
April 7, 2025 at 3:06 AM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
DEFENSIVE LINE🧵
Kenneth Grant, Michigan
Darius Alexander, Toledo
Joshua Farmer, Florida State
Jamaree Caldwell, Oregon
Elijah Roberts, SMU
DEFENSIVE LINE🧵
Kenneth Grant, Michigan
Darius Alexander, Toledo
Joshua Farmer, Florida State
Jamaree Caldwell, Oregon
Elijah Roberts, SMU
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
EDGE RUSHERS🧵
Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
Landon Jackson, Arkansas
Jordan Burch, Oregon
Bradyn Swinson, LSU
Jared Ivey, Ole Miss
Honorable mentions:
Jah Joyner, Minnesota
Kaimon Rucker, North Carolina
EDGE RUSHERS🧵
Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
Landon Jackson, Arkansas
Jordan Burch, Oregon
Bradyn Swinson, LSU
Jared Ivey, Ole Miss
Honorable mentions:
Jah Joyner, Minnesota
Kaimon Rucker, North Carolina
March 26, 2025 at 4:18 AM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
EDGE RUSHERS🧵
Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
Landon Jackson, Arkansas
Jordan Burch, Oregon
Bradyn Swinson, LSU
Jared Ivey, Ole Miss
Honorable mentions:
Jah Joyner, Minnesota
Kaimon Rucker, North Carolina
EDGE RUSHERS🧵
Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
Landon Jackson, Arkansas
Jordan Burch, Oregon
Bradyn Swinson, LSU
Jared Ivey, Ole Miss
Honorable mentions:
Jah Joyner, Minnesota
Kaimon Rucker, North Carolina
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
LINEBACKERS🧵
Demetrius Knight Jr., South Carolina
Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma
Jack Kiser, Notre Dame
Cody Simon, Ohio State
Jay Higgins, Iowa
Nick Martin, Oklahoma State
Teddye Buchanan, California
LINEBACKERS🧵
Demetrius Knight Jr., South Carolina
Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma
Jack Kiser, Notre Dame
Cody Simon, Ohio State
Jay Higgins, Iowa
Nick Martin, Oklahoma State
Teddye Buchanan, California
March 19, 2025 at 4:38 AM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
LINEBACKERS🧵
Demetrius Knight Jr., South Carolina
Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma
Jack Kiser, Notre Dame
Cody Simon, Ohio State
Jay Higgins, Iowa
Nick Martin, Oklahoma State
Teddye Buchanan, California
LINEBACKERS🧵
Demetrius Knight Jr., South Carolina
Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma
Jack Kiser, Notre Dame
Cody Simon, Ohio State
Jay Higgins, Iowa
Nick Martin, Oklahoma State
Teddye Buchanan, California
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
SAFETIES🧵
Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
Andrew Mukuba, Texas
Billy Bowman Jr., Oklahoma
Jonas Sanker, Virginia
Jaylen Reed, Penn State
Kitan Crawford, Nevada
SAFETIES🧵
Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
Andrew Mukuba, Texas
Billy Bowman Jr., Oklahoma
Jonas Sanker, Virginia
Jaylen Reed, Penn State
Kitan Crawford, Nevada
March 11, 2025 at 10:39 PM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
SAFETIES🧵
Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
Andrew Mukuba, Texas
Billy Bowman Jr., Oklahoma
Jonas Sanker, Virginia
Jaylen Reed, Penn State
Kitan Crawford, Nevada
SAFETIES🧵
Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
Andrew Mukuba, Texas
Billy Bowman Jr., Oklahoma
Jonas Sanker, Virginia
Jaylen Reed, Penn State
Kitan Crawford, Nevada
Top 5 quarterbacks in EPA/play in close games over the past three seasons
(2022-2024, second half and overtime, win prob. 30-70%):
1. Jalen Hurts
2. Sam Darnold
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. C.J. Stroud
5. Josh Allen
(2022-2024, second half and overtime, win prob. 30-70%):
1. Jalen Hurts
2. Sam Darnold
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. C.J. Stroud
5. Josh Allen
March 10, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Top 5 quarterbacks in EPA/play in close games over the past three seasons
(2022-2024, second half and overtime, win prob. 30-70%):
1. Jalen Hurts
2. Sam Darnold
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. C.J. Stroud
5. Josh Allen
(2022-2024, second half and overtime, win prob. 30-70%):
1. Jalen Hurts
2. Sam Darnold
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. C.J. Stroud
5. Josh Allen
Sam Darnold's 2024 season
(w/o garbage time, win prob. 10-90%)
8.7 air yards per attempt (6th)
72.5% completion (8th)
6.2% CPOE (3rd)
53.1% success rate (4th)
0.211 EPA/play (6th)
0.234 adjusted EPA/play (5th)
0.166 EPA+CPOE composite (4th)
(w/o garbage time, win prob. 10-90%)
8.7 air yards per attempt (6th)
72.5% completion (8th)
6.2% CPOE (3rd)
53.1% success rate (4th)
0.211 EPA/play (6th)
0.234 adjusted EPA/play (5th)
0.166 EPA+CPOE composite (4th)
March 10, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Sam Darnold's 2024 season
(w/o garbage time, win prob. 10-90%)
8.7 air yards per attempt (6th)
72.5% completion (8th)
6.2% CPOE (3rd)
53.1% success rate (4th)
0.211 EPA/play (6th)
0.234 adjusted EPA/play (5th)
0.166 EPA+CPOE composite (4th)
(w/o garbage time, win prob. 10-90%)
8.7 air yards per attempt (6th)
72.5% completion (8th)
6.2% CPOE (3rd)
53.1% success rate (4th)
0.211 EPA/play (6th)
0.234 adjusted EPA/play (5th)
0.166 EPA+CPOE composite (4th)
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
CORNERBACKS🧵
Quincy Riley, Louisville
Nohl Williams, California
Justin Walley, Minnesota
Robert Longerbeam, Rutgers
CORNERBACKS🧵
Quincy Riley, Louisville
Nohl Williams, California
Justin Walley, Minnesota
Robert Longerbeam, Rutgers
March 6, 2025 at 10:08 PM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
CORNERBACKS🧵
Quincy Riley, Louisville
Nohl Williams, California
Justin Walley, Minnesota
Robert Longerbeam, Rutgers
CORNERBACKS🧵
Quincy Riley, Louisville
Nohl Williams, California
Justin Walley, Minnesota
Robert Longerbeam, Rutgers
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
TIGHT ENDS🧵
Terrance Ferguson, Oregon
Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame
Caden Prieskorn, Ole Miss
Jackson Hawes, Georgia Tech
TIGHT ENDS🧵
Terrance Ferguson, Oregon
Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame
Caden Prieskorn, Ole Miss
Jackson Hawes, Georgia Tech
February 25, 2025 at 8:27 PM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
TIGHT ENDS🧵
Terrance Ferguson, Oregon
Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame
Caden Prieskorn, Ole Miss
Jackson Hawes, Georgia Tech
TIGHT ENDS🧵
Terrance Ferguson, Oregon
Mitchell Evans, Notre Dame
Caden Prieskorn, Ole Miss
Jackson Hawes, Georgia Tech
Seahawk Nerd Mock Draft 1.0
-- Every simulator has different player rankings. When I do mocks, I try to keep my picks realistic based on consensus big boards.
-- As of today, I have only watched QB/RB/WR. For other positions, I defer to what I've read so far.
-- Every simulator has different player rankings. When I do mocks, I try to keep my picks realistic based on consensus big boards.
-- As of today, I have only watched QB/RB/WR. For other positions, I defer to what I've read so far.
February 20, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Seahawk Nerd Mock Draft 1.0
-- Every simulator has different player rankings. When I do mocks, I try to keep my picks realistic based on consensus big boards.
-- As of today, I have only watched QB/RB/WR. For other positions, I defer to what I've read so far.
-- Every simulator has different player rankings. When I do mocks, I try to keep my picks realistic based on consensus big boards.
-- As of today, I have only watched QB/RB/WR. For other positions, I defer to what I've read so far.
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
WIDE RECEIVERS🧵
Jayden Higgins, Iowa State
Jack Bech, TCU
Kobe Hudson, UCF
Ricky White III, UNLV
WIDE RECEIVERS🧵
Jayden Higgins, Iowa State
Jack Bech, TCU
Kobe Hudson, UCF
Ricky White III, UNLV
February 18, 2025 at 10:34 PM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
WIDE RECEIVERS🧵
Jayden Higgins, Iowa State
Jack Bech, TCU
Kobe Hudson, UCF
Ricky White III, UNLV
WIDE RECEIVERS🧵
Jayden Higgins, Iowa State
Jack Bech, TCU
Kobe Hudson, UCF
Ricky White III, UNLV
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
QUARTERBACKS 🧵
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Will Howard, Ohio State
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
QUARTERBACKS 🧵
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Will Howard, Ohio State
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
February 5, 2025 at 8:17 PM
#SeahawkNerdDraftProspects2025
QUARTERBACKS 🧵
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Will Howard, Ohio State
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
QUARTERBACKS 🧵
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Will Howard, Ohio State
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
Vegas win probabilities
Eagles: 72%
Chiefs: 53%
RES win probabilities
Eagles: 73%
Bills: 56%
Eagles: 72%
Chiefs: 53%
RES win probabilities
Eagles: 73%
Bills: 56%
January 24, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Vegas win probabilities
Eagles: 72%
Chiefs: 53%
RES win probabilities
Eagles: 73%
Bills: 56%
Eagles: 72%
Chiefs: 53%
RES win probabilities
Eagles: 73%
Bills: 56%
Algorithm Wild Card Predictions
In Week 19, the algorithm:
- has never been wrong with a probability greater than 90%.
- has a 78% success rate on probabilities ranging 70-90%.
- has a 54% success rate on probabilities ranging 50-55%.
Bucs/Commanders is the game of the weekend!
In Week 19, the algorithm:
- has never been wrong with a probability greater than 90%.
- has a 78% success rate on probabilities ranging 70-90%.
- has a 54% success rate on probabilities ranging 50-55%.
Bucs/Commanders is the game of the weekend!
January 9, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Algorithm Wild Card Predictions
In Week 19, the algorithm:
- has never been wrong with a probability greater than 90%.
- has a 78% success rate on probabilities ranging 70-90%.
- has a 54% success rate on probabilities ranging 50-55%.
Bucs/Commanders is the game of the weekend!
In Week 19, the algorithm:
- has never been wrong with a probability greater than 90%.
- has a 78% success rate on probabilities ranging 70-90%.
- has a 54% success rate on probabilities ranging 50-55%.
Bucs/Commanders is the game of the weekend!
Seahawks vs Vikings Key Matchups
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ MIN early down pass offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA early down pass defense: 19th
⚪ MIN late down offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA late down defense: 7th
🔵 SEA rush offense: 24th
⚪ MIN rush defense: 6th
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ MIN early down pass offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA early down pass defense: 19th
⚪ MIN late down offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA late down defense: 7th
🔵 SEA rush offense: 24th
⚪ MIN rush defense: 6th
December 22, 2024 at 7:01 PM
Seahawks vs Vikings Key Matchups
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ MIN early down pass offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA early down pass defense: 19th
⚪ MIN late down offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA late down defense: 7th
🔵 SEA rush offense: 24th
⚪ MIN rush defense: 6th
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ MIN early down pass offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA early down pass defense: 19th
⚪ MIN late down offense: 3rd
🔵 SEA late down defense: 7th
🔵 SEA rush offense: 24th
⚪ MIN rush defense: 6th
Week 16 Win Probabilities
A Seahawks fan's rooting guide:
1. Jaguars over Raiders
2. Dolphins over 49ers
3. Bears over Lions
4. Packers over Saints
5. Patriots over Bills
6. Cardinals over Panthers
7. Falcons over Giants
A Seahawks fan's rooting guide:
1. Jaguars over Raiders
2. Dolphins over 49ers
3. Bears over Lions
4. Packers over Saints
5. Patriots over Bills
6. Cardinals over Panthers
7. Falcons over Giants
December 20, 2024 at 10:00 PM
Week 16 Win Probabilities
A Seahawks fan's rooting guide:
1. Jaguars over Raiders
2. Dolphins over 49ers
3. Bears over Lions
4. Packers over Saints
5. Patriots over Bills
6. Cardinals over Panthers
7. Falcons over Giants
A Seahawks fan's rooting guide:
1. Jaguars over Raiders
2. Dolphins over 49ers
3. Bears over Lions
4. Packers over Saints
5. Patriots over Bills
6. Cardinals over Panthers
7. Falcons over Giants
🚨Week 16 RES Power Rankings🚨
The Bills are pulling away in the AFC, but it's still a four-way race in the NFC!
The Bills are pulling away in the AFC, but it's still a four-way race in the NFC!
December 20, 2024 at 10:00 PM
🚨Week 16 RES Power Rankings🚨
The Bills are pulling away in the AFC, but it's still a four-way race in the NFC!
The Bills are pulling away in the AFC, but it's still a four-way race in the NFC!
Seahawks vs Packers Key Matchups
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ GB rush offense: 11th
🔵 SEA rush defense: 22nd
⚪ GB late down offense: 13th
🔵 SEA late down defense: 6th
🔵 SEA pass offense: 13th
⚪ GB pass defense: 30th
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ GB rush offense: 11th
🔵 SEA rush defense: 22nd
⚪ GB late down offense: 13th
🔵 SEA late down defense: 6th
🔵 SEA pass offense: 13th
⚪ GB pass defense: 30th
December 15, 2024 at 7:10 PM
Seahawks vs Packers Key Matchups
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ GB rush offense: 11th
🔵 SEA rush defense: 22nd
⚪ GB late down offense: 13th
🔵 SEA late down defense: 6th
🔵 SEA pass offense: 13th
⚪ GB pass defense: 30th
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ GB rush offense: 11th
🔵 SEA rush defense: 22nd
⚪ GB late down offense: 13th
🔵 SEA late down defense: 6th
🔵 SEA pass offense: 13th
⚪ GB pass defense: 30th
Week 15 RES Power Rankings
December 12, 2024 at 12:40 AM
Week 15 RES Power Rankings
Jets vs Seahawks Key Matchups
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ SEA 3rd down offense: 14th
🟢 NYJ 3rd down defense: 14th
🟢 NYJ early down offense: 22nd
⚪ SEA early down defense: 22nd
⚪ SEA rush offense: 25th
🟢 NYJ rush defense: 24th
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ SEA 3rd down offense: 14th
🟢 NYJ 3rd down defense: 14th
🟢 NYJ early down offense: 22nd
⚪ SEA early down defense: 22nd
⚪ SEA rush offense: 25th
🟢 NYJ rush defense: 24th
December 1, 2024 at 3:25 AM
Jets vs Seahawks Key Matchups
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ SEA 3rd down offense: 14th
🟢 NYJ 3rd down defense: 14th
🟢 NYJ early down offense: 22nd
⚪ SEA early down defense: 22nd
⚪ SEA rush offense: 25th
🟢 NYJ rush defense: 24th
(by success rate, win prob. 10-90%)
⚪ SEA 3rd down offense: 14th
🟢 NYJ 3rd down defense: 14th
🟢 NYJ early down offense: 22nd
⚪ SEA early down defense: 22nd
⚪ SEA rush offense: 25th
🟢 NYJ rush defense: 24th