Running fast to stand still risks oversupply, as the policy prescription does not match demand projections. It takes 11-14 years for a discovery to began producing. Even from projects with approval, its 6 years on average. By 2030, demand projections may look wildly different.

Full investment to maintain flat production would also cause risks, as markets push to lowest cost and "leads to a
high concentration in supply among today’s major resource holders"
iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/41800...

The IEA reiterates in the report that on that in NZE, "no new long lead-time conventional upstream projects would need to be approved for development." (pg 59)

Analysis of common demand models show that demand is far from flat. Even in BAU industry projections oil and gas demand falls.

The analysis presupposes that demand is flat, and therefore makes gap projections from there: $500b per year "simply to arrest the decline in existing fields" and "maintain its current production levels." However, nearly few projections show that as a necessity.

media.rff.org/documents/Re...

GOGET includes pages about oil and gas fields, with further details including ownership, production and reserves. See the Bay du Nord page below

www.gem.wiki/Bay_du_Nord_...

The long delayed Bay du Nord project (BdN) sits at 1170 meters deep. Researchers have calculated a 16% chance of a "serious oil spill" from the project.

First oil from the project is now anticipated around "late 2028"

www.greenpeace.org/static/plane...

Read more here globalenergymonitor.org/report/oil-g...

In addition to the direct ocean ecosystem risks, these fields run counter to the no new oil and gas fields for 1.5 consensus. Per CSER: no country can justly develop new oil and gas projects and some countries will need to close existing fields. An IISD graphic: www.iisd.org/system/files...

The trend toward offshore is a long time coming. Per GOGET - offshore discoveries have been growing in share of global discoveries per year, accounting for about 60% in the 2010s and then around 73% so far in the 2020s.

This is despite the grave risks offshore oil and gas projects pose to the oceans. To borrow at graphic from this great report: www.indeepwater.co.uk

And 24 projects began to sell hydrocarbons to market in 2024. Of those, 19 projects accounted for 71% of resource volumes.

These projects took about 15 years from discovery to first production, if that trend holds, any exploration done now might not produce hydrocarbons until nearly 2040.

All new 2024 FIDs tracked in GOGET were located offshore. These 12 projects indicated that project promoters are aiming to exploit an additional 3.8 bboe.

In total, these 12 projects account for at least $43 billion in investment in new oil and gas projects.