Sam Scarpino
@scarpino.bsky.social
Scientist. Director of AI + Life Sciences and Professor of Public Health, Health Sciences, & Computer Sciences at Northeastern University. External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Vermont Complex Systems Institute. scarpino.github.io
Do you have historical data on FluC? Not sure I've seen much surveillance made available in the past. Super interesting.
November 25, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Do you have historical data on FluC? Not sure I've seen much surveillance made available in the past. Super interesting.
@dieworkwear.bsky.social is that true?
November 16, 2025 at 4:17 PM
@dieworkwear.bsky.social is that true?
3/ I haven't seen a formal analysis published from the UK supporting the 1.4 number.
That 1.4 number was quoted from a scientists in media articles.
If anyone has a source describing where or how the 1.4 estimate was determined please let us know!
That 1.4 number was quoted from a scientists in media articles.
If anyone has a source describing where or how the 1.4 estimate was determined please let us know!
November 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM
3/ I haven't seen a formal analysis published from the UK supporting the 1.4 number.
That 1.4 number was quoted from a scientists in media articles.
If anyone has a source describing where or how the 1.4 estimate was determined please let us know!
That 1.4 number was quoted from a scientists in media articles.
If anyone has a source describing where or how the 1.4 estimate was determined please let us know!
2/ Interestingly, they estimate that the viral growth rate is around 1.2.
If this number holds, we'd have a large flu season but not as large as what the UK analysis predicts.
The UK estimated the growth rate to be 1.4 (which is excluded in the US CDC's confidence intervals).
If this number holds, we'd have a large flu season but not as large as what the UK analysis predicts.
The UK estimated the growth rate to be 1.4 (which is excluded in the US CDC's confidence intervals).
November 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM
2/ Interestingly, they estimate that the viral growth rate is around 1.2.
If this number holds, we'd have a large flu season but not as large as what the UK analysis predicts.
The UK estimated the growth rate to be 1.4 (which is excluded in the US CDC's confidence intervals).
If this number holds, we'd have a large flu season but not as large as what the UK analysis predicts.
The UK estimated the growth rate to be 1.4 (which is excluded in the US CDC's confidence intervals).
4/ As I previously reported, the vaccine may not provide much protection against infection by K, BUT should provide protection against severe disease.
Protection is strongest in <17. The CDC reports rates of flu rising fastest in kids.
Now is the time to get vaccinated!
bsky.app/profile/scar...
Protection is strongest in <17. The CDC reports rates of flu rising fastest in kids.
Now is the time to get vaccinated!
bsky.app/profile/scar...
Good news from the UK on the influenza "K" variant.
As expected, vaccine-derived antibodies show reduced effect against the K variant.
But, preliminary real-world data shows that the vaccine is protecting against severe disease.
Especially in kids!
www.gov.uk/government/p...
As expected, vaccine-derived antibodies show reduced effect against the K variant.
But, preliminary real-world data shows that the vaccine is protecting against severe disease.
Especially in kids!
www.gov.uk/government/p...
November 14, 2025 at 5:01 PM
4/ As I previously reported, the vaccine may not provide much protection against infection by K, BUT should provide protection against severe disease.
Protection is strongest in <17. The CDC reports rates of flu rising fastest in kids.
Now is the time to get vaccinated!
bsky.app/profile/scar...
Protection is strongest in <17. The CDC reports rates of flu rising fastest in kids.
Now is the time to get vaccinated!
bsky.app/profile/scar...
3/ The CDC is also reporting that 50% of sub typed H3 viruses are the "K" variant. Importantly, that number is cumulative since May, so I suspect the current prevalence of the K variant is much higher.
November 14, 2025 at 5:01 PM
3/ The CDC is also reporting that 50% of sub typed H3 viruses are the "K" variant. Importantly, that number is cumulative since May, so I suspect the current prevalence of the K variant is much higher.
2/ The CDC is reporting that 2% of clinical samples are flu positive and 2% of outpatient visits had symptoms typically associated with influenza.
For both positive samples and outpatient visits the trend is increasing.
www.cdc.gov/fluview/surv...
For both positive samples and outpatient visits the trend is increasing.
www.cdc.gov/fluview/surv...
November 14, 2025 at 5:01 PM
2/ The CDC is reporting that 2% of clinical samples are flu positive and 2% of outpatient visits had symptoms typically associated with influenza.
For both positive samples and outpatient visits the trend is increasing.
www.cdc.gov/fluview/surv...
For both positive samples and outpatient visits the trend is increasing.
www.cdc.gov/fluview/surv...
So overwhelmingly K (that's J.2.4.1 right?)
November 10, 2025 at 7:21 PM
So overwhelmingly K (that's J.2.4.1 right?)