Sam Greene
@samagreene.bsky.social
Professor of Russian Politics, King's College London. Political sociologist. Progressive. Co-author, Putin v the People. 🇬🇧/🇺🇸
Pinned
Sam Greene
@samagreene.bsky.social
· Feb 10
For the avoidance of doubt: The opinions and analysis I express on this platform are my own and do not reflect the positions of any particular institution.
Once more: The incoherence of the Trump administration should not be confused with incapacity. Trump inherited structures of incomparable global power and is unencumbered by calculations of consequence.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
November 7, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Once more: The incoherence of the Trump administration should not be confused with incapacity. Trump inherited structures of incomparable global power and is unencumbered by calculations of consequence.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
Reupping this article from February — because nothing has changed.
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
This is Europe’s war now
The continent’s future depends on outflanking America. British troops in Ukraine is the first step.
www.newstatesman.com
October 20, 2025 at 6:37 AM
Reupping this article from February — because nothing has changed.
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
Looking for a way to shore up a foundering autocratic regime? Try this:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
Trump Administration Authorizes Covert C.I.A. Action in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
October 15, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Looking for a way to shore up a foundering autocratic regime? Try this:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
Get better analysis of the Russian economy than Trump does. Tune into Sasha & Sasha at The Bell.
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
The Bell — A webinar with Alexandra Prokopenko and Alexander Kolyandr
When Will Russia Run Out of Money?
pro.thebell.io
September 27, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Get better analysis of the Russian economy than Trump does. Tune into Sasha & Sasha at The Bell.
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
The list of countries that have moved to outlaw Soros and the Open Society Foundations is long.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
September 25, 2025 at 10:13 PM
The list of countries that have moved to outlaw Soros and the Open Society Foundations is long.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
Remember when the anti-immigrant MAGA base went to war against Elon and Vivek over visas? Looks like they found a compromise. on.ft.com/4nisPq2
Donald Trump plans to raise cost of H-1B foreign worker visa to $100,000
Shares in IT consulting groups drop on news of changes to scheme popular with Silicon Valley
on.ft.com
September 19, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Remember when the anti-immigrant MAGA base went to war against Elon and Vivek over visas? Looks like they found a compromise. on.ft.com/4nisPq2
Hey New York! Come hang out on Thursday at @nyujordancenter.bsky.social!
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
10 Years of Observing US-Russia Relations
Please join the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia and Harriman Institute at Columbia University for the concluding event in the New York-Russia Public Policy series.
harriman.columbia.edu
September 16, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Hey New York! Come hang out on Thursday at @nyujordancenter.bsky.social!
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
In this view of the world, there is no room for people endowed with free will and inalienable rights. There is only room for humanoid furniture, animatronics whose function is to soothe the aesthetic senses of those who believe that true power—even in a republic—is inherited.
August 23, 2025 at 11:45 AM
In this view of the world, there is no room for people endowed with free will and inalienable rights. There is only room for humanoid furniture, animatronics whose function is to soothe the aesthetic senses of those who believe that true power—even in a republic—is inherited.
So, the party of limited government, strict constitutional originalism and free markets is now lining up for federal troops in cities, government-imposed censorship in education and state ownership of major corporations.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
August 23, 2025 at 10:53 AM
So, the party of limited government, strict constitutional originalism and free markets is now lining up for federal troops in cities, government-imposed censorship in education and state ownership of major corporations.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
For six months now, European leaders have confused Trump‘s malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built.
A quick thread
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A quick thread
/1
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
For six months now, European leaders have confused Trump‘s malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built.
A quick thread
/1
A quick thread
/1
As we wait: the morning after the day before and before the day after
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
TL;DRussia Special Edition
18 August 2025: The morning after the day before and before the day after
tldrussia.substack.com
August 18, 2025 at 2:39 PM
As we wait: the morning after the day before and before the day after
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
Looking ahead to tomorrow’s US-Ukraine-Europe meeting in the White House, for @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
What to expect from Zelenskyy's White House visit, ahead of potential peace deal
NPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks to Sam Greene, Professor of Russian Politics at King's College London, about what kind of deal could be reached to end the war in Ukraine.
www.npr.org
August 17, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Looking ahead to tomorrow’s US-Ukraine-Europe meeting in the White House, for @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
Most of us had assumed, I think, that the Anchorage summit ended early because the sides couldn’t agree on much.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
August 16, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Most of us had assumed, I think, that the Anchorage summit ended early because the sides couldn’t agree on much.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
Ok, so this tweet didn’t age well. The piece did, though:
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”
As expected, Trump and Putin leave Anchorage adrift. As I wrote Thursday for @cepa.org, the question now is as it has long been: can Europe take charge?
cepa.org/article/unmo...
cepa.org/article/unmo...
Unmoored in Anchorage: Europe’s Dangerous Game
Europe has done everything possible to align itself with the US administration. That has avoided difficult decisions, but comes at a risk.
cepa.org
August 16, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Ok, so this tweet didn’t age well. The piece did, though:
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”
As expected, Trump and Putin leave Anchorage adrift. As I wrote Thursday for @cepa.org, the question now is as it has long been: can Europe take charge?
cepa.org/article/unmo...
cepa.org/article/unmo...
Unmoored in Anchorage: Europe’s Dangerous Game
Europe has done everything possible to align itself with the US administration. That has avoided difficult decisions, but comes at a risk.
cepa.org
August 15, 2025 at 11:49 PM
As expected, Trump and Putin leave Anchorage adrift. As I wrote Thursday for @cepa.org, the question now is as it has long been: can Europe take charge?
cepa.org/article/unmo...
cepa.org/article/unmo...
Maybe — just maybe — we could accept that Labour have done the analysis and know what they’re doing?
August 14, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Maybe — just maybe — we could accept that Labour have done the analysis and know what they’re doing?
"The risk is not that Europe overreaches, but that it undershoots. Europe will never have all the resources it needs to assure itself of victory. Failing to go to diplomatic war with the army it has, however, assures it of defeat."
My two cents ahead of Anchorage for @cepa.org
My two cents ahead of Anchorage for @cepa.org
Unmoored in Anchorage: Europe’s Dangerous Game
Europe has done everything possible to align itself with the US administration. That has avoided difficult decisions, but comes at a risk.
cepa.org
August 13, 2025 at 5:49 PM
"The risk is not that Europe overreaches, but that it undershoots. Europe will never have all the resources it needs to assure itself of victory. Failing to go to diplomatic war with the army it has, however, assures it of defeat."
My two cents ahead of Anchorage for @cepa.org
My two cents ahead of Anchorage for @cepa.org
Far be it for me to defend Badenoch, but did anybody consider that maybe she didn't want to meet Vance? What's the upside for her?
After all these months, we've finally discovered something that JD Vance is right about. He believes that Kemi Badenoch is not worth meeting. And in this – and only this – he is entirely correct inews.co.uk/opinion/jd-v...
August 13, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Far be it for me to defend Badenoch, but did anybody consider that maybe she didn't want to meet Vance? What's the upside for her?
A few thoughts on Putin’s very good week, for @paulsonne.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/w...
After Almost Losing Trump, Putin Gets His Ideal Summit
www.nytimes.com
August 10, 2025 at 8:38 AM
A few thoughts on Putin’s very good week, for @paulsonne.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/w...
As things stand, Ukraine and Europe are on the verge of being confronted with exactly the kind of Faustian deal they feared would emerge back in February. The fact that Europe hasn’t moved to block such a deal in the past six months is a failure of leadership and diplomacy.
/1
/1
August 9, 2025 at 8:23 AM
As things stand, Ukraine and Europe are on the verge of being confronted with exactly the kind of Faustian deal they feared would emerge back in February. The fact that Europe hasn’t moved to block such a deal in the past six months is a failure of leadership and diplomacy.
/1
/1
Ugh.
Personality traits are set in very early childhood and don’t change much over time. Asking people to become “more conscientious” in the way the science understands it is like asking me to stop being bald. Any attempt would be entirely artificial.
on.ft.com/46Najk8
Personality traits are set in very early childhood and don’t change much over time. Asking people to become “more conscientious” in the way the science understands it is like asking me to stop being bald. Any attempt would be entirely artificial.
on.ft.com/46Najk8
The troubling decline in conscientiousness
A critical life skill is fading out — and especially fast among young adults
on.ft.com
August 8, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Ugh.
Personality traits are set in very early childhood and don’t change much over time. Asking people to become “more conscientious” in the way the science understands it is like asking me to stop being bald. Any attempt would be entirely artificial.
on.ft.com/46Najk8
Personality traits are set in very early childhood and don’t change much over time. Asking people to become “more conscientious” in the way the science understands it is like asking me to stop being bald. Any attempt would be entirely artificial.
on.ft.com/46Najk8
So, this is making the rounds and really -- desparately -- needs to be clarified. The TL;DR is this: Polls don't measure shifts in opinion so much as shifts in context.
news.gallup.com/poll/693203/...
(A brief 🧵)
/1
news.gallup.com/poll/693203/...
(A brief 🧵)
/1
Ukrainian Support for War Effort Collapses
New data from Ukraine show the public favors ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has plummeted.
news.gallup.com
August 7, 2025 at 8:59 PM
So, this is making the rounds and really -- desparately -- needs to be clarified. The TL;DR is this: Polls don't measure shifts in opinion so much as shifts in context.
news.gallup.com/poll/693203/...
(A brief 🧵)
/1
news.gallup.com/poll/693203/...
(A brief 🧵)
/1
And here we go: Not a deal, but a deal to try to force a deal without European involvement. This allows Putin to feign good will, and Trump to back away from a largely empty sanctions threat. Not a good day for Ukraine, I’m afraid.
(A quick 🧵)
nytimes.com/2025/08/06/us/…
/1
(A quick 🧵)
nytimes.com/2025/08/06/us/…
/1
https://nytimes.com/2025/08/06/us/…
August 6, 2025 at 8:06 PM
And here we go: Not a deal, but a deal to try to force a deal without European involvement. This allows Putin to feign good will, and Trump to back away from a largely empty sanctions threat. Not a good day for Ukraine, I’m afraid.
(A quick 🧵)
nytimes.com/2025/08/06/us/…
/1
(A quick 🧵)
nytimes.com/2025/08/06/us/…
/1
I stand with Ukrainians, who have shown time and again that they will not abide tyranny, whether it comes from without or within. Zelensky made a mistake. He will pay the price when elections come. But Ukrainians will not thank us now or later if we use this as an excuse to abandon their defense.
July 22, 2025 at 8:40 PM
I stand with Ukrainians, who have shown time and again that they will not abide tyranny, whether it comes from without or within. Zelensky made a mistake. He will pay the price when elections come. But Ukrainians will not thank us now or later if we use this as an excuse to abandon their defense.
The newsletter's back -- with a dive into the tortured psyches of Sergei Karaganov, Konstantin Malofeev and Russia's surprisingly anxious and fractured conservatives.
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
TL;DRussia Weekly Roundup
15 July 2025: En garde, plus texts and tunes
tldrussia.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 1:11 PM
The newsletter's back -- with a dive into the tortured psyches of Sergei Karaganov, Konstantin Malofeev and Russia's surprisingly anxious and fractured conservatives.
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...