It's a great question. I have lots of thoughts about the data that I use in my work and how I present that information to audiences.

Unfortunately, the character limits of this platform and others like it aren't conducive to that type of nuanced discussion.

It's something I mention in lots and lots of talks.

I show this slide and say:

The Gallup estimate of nones is 23%. That's probably too low.
The CES estimate is 35%. That's probably too high.

Pew and GSS have the number around 30%. That's probably the best guess we have.

In the words of Obama surrounding gay marriage, "my thinking has evolved."

The new GSS data coming out a few weeks ago was a big catalyst for that.

YouGov is a reputable polling firm. It's not like the Bible Society used Survey Monkey.

But they struggle w/young respondents.

This is something I note in a forthcoming piece.

CES is YouGov.

Huge gaps in attendance in the Gen Z part of the sample when comparing to GSS.

But what's fascinating is that on affiliation measures, there is evidence of stasis. That's true in CES, RLS, and GSS.

New post today where I make the claim that if you are trying to study how religion impacts vote choice,

Then attendance has almost no utility at all.

Affiliation tells you a whole lot more.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/the-politi...

Left out the Evangelical Lutheran Church of America!

2.9M.

A new post today in my ongoing series about religion and the 2024 election.

This one focuses on the Jewish vote.

Still solidly Democratic.

A pretty standard election for the Jewish portion of the electorate.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...

I look at questions like what % of clergy believe in:

Literal Adam and Eve
The bodily resurrection of Jesus
Hell
Miraculous healing
Astrology
Reincarnation

I analyze data about their views of the Bible.

And the superiority of their worldview

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/how-certai...

Lots of analysis today about the LDS vote.

I spent some extra time trying to sort out how younger LDS feel about politics.

Just 31% of young LDS voted for Trump in 2020.
It was 56% in 2024.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...

My annual assessment of the state of the Southern Baptist Convention, right before their annual meeting.

You can try and spin it however you want - but the data doesn't lie:

The negative trends far, far outweigh the positive ones.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-marks...

I try to explain Black Americans, religion, and the vote in the 2024 election.

I do believe there is some evidence of a slight shift toward the GOP, but it's certainly not overwhelming evidence at this point.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...

Couple things.

That first graph is a measure of religious attendance.

That second graph is a measure of religious affiliation.

It's different surveys, too.

They come to different conclusions.

Polling young people is very hard.