Jacob Rubashkin
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rubashkin.bsky.social
Jacob Rubashkin
@rubashkin.bsky.social
Deputy editor, Inside Elections
Currently we see the House battlefield like so:
213 seats favoring GOP
210 seats favoring Dems
12 toss-ups

If Texas is using the old map, that looks more like:
GOP favored in 210
Dems favored in 214
Toss-up 11
November 18, 2025 at 7:22 PM
If Dems could get back their Clintonian margins among Latinos but keep their Bidenesque wins in the cities and suburbs, could they break the new map, which was drawn with the Latino shift to Trump in mind?

The short answer: no. The longer answer? Read on: www.insideelections.com/news/article...
Could Democrats Break the Texas Gerrymander?
Would a return to form among Latino voters help Democrats break the Texas GOP gerrymander?
www.insideelections.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Specifically, we had to create a Frankenstein candidate who possessed all of the strengths of Clinton among Latinos, but also Biden and Beto among Black voters and white suburbanites. That could help us estimate the "best case scenario" for a Democrat in each district.
a black and white photo of a man with a stethoscope around his neck screaming .
ALT: a black and white photo of a man with a stethoscope around his neck screaming .
media.tenor.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Tl;dr: Collins overperformed by 18% in 2020 off strength among women, college graduates, and older voters — all Dem-leaning constituencies. To win, any opponent will have to cut into her advantage with those voters, who split their ticket between her and Biden, more so than young/non-college men.
November 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Thanks for the tag
October 16, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Agreed, and when I signed on I pointed the organizers to a number of very talented women but unfortunately it didn’t come to fruition.
September 26, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Readers of Inside Elections knew this tidbit a week ago thanks to our 101-district House overview that included hundreds of names of current and potential House candidates across the country. If you're not subscribing, you're already behind.
insideelections.com/edition/9/17
Volume 9, Issue 17: 2026 House Overview, Senate & Governor Report Shorts
Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.
insideelections.com
September 24, 2025 at 1:31 PM