Altcoins.

Crucial: $BTC must be trending before alts matter.

Then permission: is the alt index (ex-BTC/ETH/BNB) improving?

Next dispersion: are all alts moving together, or does selection matter? If so, do an omega ratio analysis.

Current read: turning positive, but still a “prepare” phase.

Bitcoin or Ethereum?

It’s not a standalone choice. Crypto is highly correlated with $BTC, so $BTC trend comes first.

If $BTC is supportive, the decision becomes relative - I analyse the ETH/BTC ratio to assess whether ETH is adding value.

My current read: ETH/BTC is slightly favourable vs $BTC.

Bitcoin:

I start by quantitatively scoring key macro and liquidity metrics, as they drive risk appetite and capital flows.

Then perform trend analysis on $TOTAL for alignment.

Current read: macro + liquidity turning supportive, trend slightly positive = mixed signals = choppy price action.

How I think about investing in digital assets.

I start with the macro and liquidity regime. When conditions are supportive, BTC tends to lead.

As the environment broadens, ETH can improve portfolio efficiency.

Moving further down the risk curve to altcoins makes sense once participation expands.

Day 3.

My approach to markets.

I take a top-down approach inspired by investors like Ray Dalio’s, where macroeconomics and liquidity set the backdrop.

Asset selection comes downstream: valuations (DCF, comps) for equities, and quantitative + trend analysis for digital assets.

Holistic insights.

Day 2.

I’ve worked in investments my entire career, building financial models to value companies and track macro and liquidity conditions across equities and digital assets.

Lately, I’ve wanted to share my passion for independent research more openly.

If you enjoy financial markets, follow along.

First day starting here on the blue side.

I share my thoughts on the world of macroeconomics and financial markets.