“Can you pinpoint the moment that you realised that civilisation was utterly irretrievable?”
November 24, 2025 at 10:09 AM
“Can you pinpoint the moment that you realised that civilisation was utterly irretrievable?”
Q: How important is a representative sample?
A:
A:
November 5, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Q: How important is a representative sample?
A:
A:
I suppose one option for those beleaguered city executives might be to pay their graduate entrants a bit more.
November 3, 2025 at 7:08 AM
I suppose one option for those beleaguered city executives might be to pay their graduate entrants a bit more.
This Olé House sounds even better (if such can be imagined) than the original.
October 5, 2025 at 10:31 AM
This Olé House sounds even better (if such can be imagined) than the original.
Anyone else on here ever felt a sense of despondency, even despair, at the values and priorities of 52% of fellow citizens?
September 3, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Anyone else on here ever felt a sense of despondency, even despair, at the values and priorities of 52% of fellow citizens?
Hard for us to imagine what this must feel like, eh, @danjdevine.bsky.social?
August 3, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Hard for us to imagine what this must feel like, eh, @danjdevine.bsky.social?
Harsh on Jocky Wilson.
July 25, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Harsh on Jocky Wilson.
Seems a bit disrespectful to Muller.
July 1, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Seems a bit disrespectful to Muller.
Not a phrase you read very often.
June 3, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Not a phrase you read very often.
A graph of feelings about Labour broken down by a) how many times voted Lab in the 2005, 2010 and 2015 general elections; b) vote in a hypothetical Rejoin referendum.
Labour now more popular among Rejoiners who *never* voted for them in 2005-2015 than among Leavers who voted for them *every time*.
Labour now more popular among Rejoiners who *never* voted for them in 2005-2015 than among Leavers who voted for them *every time*.
May 15, 2025 at 11:41 AM
A graph of feelings about Labour broken down by a) how many times voted Lab in the 2005, 2010 and 2015 general elections; b) vote in a hypothetical Rejoin referendum.
Labour now more popular among Rejoiners who *never* voted for them in 2005-2015 than among Leavers who voted for them *every time*.
Labour now more popular among Rejoiners who *never* voted for them in 2005-2015 than among Leavers who voted for them *every time*.
Mere hours after this post, it’s smack-bang relevant again — this time for the old “correlation isn’t causation” idiocy.
May 12, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Mere hours after this post, it’s smack-bang relevant again — this time for the old “correlation isn’t causation” idiocy.
But, even if survey experiments are "better attuned to investigating what can happen than what will happen", they tell us important things about how the public reacts (or doesn't react) to politicians and their commitments. And this one looks pretty supportive of the Oxley quote from the outset:
May 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
But, even if survey experiments are "better attuned to investigating what can happen than what will happen", they tell us important things about how the public reacts (or doesn't react) to politicians and their commitments. And this one looks pretty supportive of the Oxley quote from the outset:
But, crucially, there were diminishing returns on lower numbers. Levels of 150k or 250k did not yield better ratings than 350k.
Since ONS forecasts are around 350k even without any policy changes, ‘further and faster’ on migration seems unlikely to reap much political benefit.
Since ONS forecasts are around 350k even without any policy changes, ‘further and faster’ on migration seems unlikely to reap much political benefit.
May 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
But, crucially, there were diminishing returns on lower numbers. Levels of 150k or 250k did not yield better ratings than 350k.
Since ONS forecasts are around 350k even without any policy changes, ‘further and faster’ on migration seems unlikely to reap much political benefit.
Since ONS forecasts are around 350k even without any policy changes, ‘further and faster’ on migration seems unlikely to reap much political benefit.
It was variable 1 that mattered: the migration numbers. It made little difference whether the initial target had been hit or missed, or even whether it had been met with ease or missed by miles.
May 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
It was variable 1 that mattered: the migration numbers. It made little difference whether the initial target had been hit or missed, or even whether it had been met with ease or missed by miles.
At the second stage, then, respondents were asked to imagine that it was 2029 and that net migration had turned out as per a graph (example below) showing the trend since 2024 and any target set at Stage 1. Migration outcomes varied between 150K and 750K.
May 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
At the second stage, then, respondents were asked to imagine that it was 2029 and that net migration had turned out as per a graph (example below) showing the trend since 2024 and any target set at Stage 1. Migration outcomes varied between 150K and 750K.
Everyone was then asked “how well do you expect the Labour government to handle immigration?” Perhaps the key point from the graph below is that none of the treatments led to better expectations of Labour than in the control group.
May 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Everyone was then asked “how well do you expect the Labour government to handle immigration?” Perhaps the key point from the graph below is that none of the treatments led to better expectations of Labour than in the control group.
In the other corner, a view neatly summed up by @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk here: www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/they-are-j....
May 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
In the other corner, a view neatly summed up by @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk here: www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/they-are-j....
Probably less about budget cuts and more a mutual agreement between students, who need more time off for paid work to help cover big fees, and us lot, who are very happy to down teaching tools before Pentecost/Eurovision/the Cup Final [pick your cultural calendar marker].
www.ft.com/content/1517...
www.ft.com/content/1517...
May 9, 2025 at 6:28 AM
Probably less about budget cuts and more a mutual agreement between students, who need more time off for paid work to help cover big fees, and us lot, who are very happy to down teaching tools before Pentecost/Eurovision/the Cup Final [pick your cultural calendar marker].
www.ft.com/content/1517...
www.ft.com/content/1517...
I understand that there will be mistakes in the probabilistic reasoning of large-language models. Of course there will.
But this is just ridiculous.
But this is just ridiculous.
March 5, 2025 at 3:56 PM
I understand that there will be mistakes in the probabilistic reasoning of large-language models. Of course there will.
But this is just ridiculous.
But this is just ridiculous.
Why, when obviously it’s Shakespeare?
March 2, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Why, when obviously it’s Shakespeare?
Ahhh, we all remember those iconic moments of campaigns past: the Sheffield rally, the Prescott punch, "nothing has changed" and of course the Asda beers.
February 14, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Ahhh, we all remember those iconic moments of campaigns past: the Sheffield rally, the Prescott punch, "nothing has changed" and of course the Asda beers.
Not easy, right? (Unless you're @martamiori.bsky.social.)
Here's the de-anonymised version. The graph picks out small differences but the striking thing here is the similarity. Gone is most of the toxicity of the radical right, and gone is most of the tolerance for the big two.
Here's the de-anonymised version. The graph picks out small differences but the striking thing here is the similarity. Gone is most of the toxicity of the radical right, and gone is most of the tolerance for the big two.
February 7, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Not easy, right? (Unless you're @martamiori.bsky.social.)
Here's the de-anonymised version. The graph picks out small differences but the striking thing here is the similarity. Gone is most of the toxicity of the radical right, and gone is most of the tolerance for the big two.
Here's the de-anonymised version. The graph picks out small differences but the striking thing here is the similarity. Gone is most of the toxicity of the radical right, and gone is most of the tolerance for the big two.
State-of-the-parties news.
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social and I have just run a survey courtesy of @deltapoll.bsky.social. It included 0-10 scales measuring feelings about Labour, the Tories and Reform....but they've been cunningly anonymised below! Can you tell which (un)popularity profile is which?
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social and I have just run a survey courtesy of @deltapoll.bsky.social. It included 0-10 scales measuring feelings about Labour, the Tories and Reform....but they've been cunningly anonymised below! Can you tell which (un)popularity profile is which?
February 7, 2025 at 11:53 AM
State-of-the-parties news.
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social and I have just run a survey courtesy of @deltapoll.bsky.social. It included 0-10 scales measuring feelings about Labour, the Tories and Reform....but they've been cunningly anonymised below! Can you tell which (un)popularity profile is which?
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social and I have just run a survey courtesy of @deltapoll.bsky.social. It included 0-10 scales measuring feelings about Labour, the Tories and Reform....but they've been cunningly anonymised below! Can you tell which (un)popularity profile is which?