Sincere thanks to @vikkithompson.bsky.social, @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social, and @karinvdwiel.bsky.social for the data, concepts, and support to see this work over the finish line!
November 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Sincere thanks to @vikkithompson.bsky.social, @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social, and @karinvdwiel.bsky.social for the data, concepts, and support to see this work over the finish line!
Specifically, we devise a combined reanalysis/model estimate of the likelihood of current records being broken, in which the eastern US, eastern China, & Australia stand out. We also find MENA and the tropics endure the most severe, long-lasting, and clustered events, and the greatest uncertainties.
November 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Specifically, we devise a combined reanalysis/model estimate of the likelihood of current records being broken, in which the eastern US, eastern China, & Australia stand out. We also find MENA and the tropics endure the most severe, long-lasting, and clustered events, and the greatest uncertainties.
Alarmingly, the single largest ERA5 daily wet-bulb temp affects estimated return periods by a factor of >3 or even >10 in many regions, including those where JRA55 and NOAA20CR agree well. We address this undersampling of possibilities by bringing in large ensembles...
November 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Alarmingly, the single largest ERA5 daily wet-bulb temp affects estimated return periods by a factor of >3 or even >10 in many regions, including those where JRA55 and NOAA20CR agree well. We address this undersampling of possibilities by bringing in large ensembles...
The year 2025 and this podcast's title have partly converged, but other social, technological, etc. trends also feature prominently. As always, the new season contemplates topics that feel fresh and necessary, aiming to come to some fuller understanding. At the least, this helps preserve sanity.
September 3, 2025 at 6:32 PM
The year 2025 and this podcast's title have partly converged, but other social, technological, etc. trends also feature prominently. As always, the new season contemplates topics that feel fresh and necessary, aiming to come to some fuller understanding. At the least, this helps preserve sanity.
Reposted by Colin Raymond
Multiple model ensembles are already suggesting a broad region of record mid-tropospheric ridging over the far NE Pacific and Washington/British Columbia, with possible record-breaking late-season warmth in the same region. That's a very strong signal ~1 week out. #WAwx #ORwx #BCwx
August 27, 2025 at 10:36 PM
2024 was another boom year for humid heat, esp. in East/South Asia. Hats off to Kate Willett and all for packing much info and definitional complexity into the kind of thing one could read over breakfast -- if one likes to start the day with multi-panel figures and intricately abbreviated variables.
August 14, 2025 at 9:41 PM
2024 was another boom year for humid heat, esp. in East/South Asia. Hats off to Kate Willett and all for packing much info and definitional complexity into the kind of thing one could read over breakfast -- if one likes to start the day with multi-panel figures and intricately abbreviated variables.
This is a perceptive question, which I forwarded along to Adrienne. Lmk if we didn't use the right email for you
July 23, 2025 at 7:53 PM
This is a perceptive question, which I forwarded along to Adrienne. Lmk if we didn't use the right email for you
...with profound implications for results (in both current and future climates) if left unaccounted for. More details in the paper: dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025....
“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs
Within an ensemble, projected changes from individual downscaled models can differ dramatically pre and post downscaling
Reliable interpretations require maximum retention of ensemble information...
dx.doi.org
July 1, 2025 at 9:20 PM
...with profound implications for results (in both current and future climates) if left unaccounted for. More details in the paper: dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025....
Excited to check this out! There's a real unfilled niche here.
June 20, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Excited to check this out! There's a real unfilled niche here.
Reposted by Colin Raymond
I strongly encourage folks to check out the rest of the event, which will feature dozens of speakers over a 5 day period. The line-up is genuinely impressive--a veritable who's who of the American #weather and #climate world in 2025--so I'll be watching! wclivestream.com/schedule
The Weather & Climate Livestream | Schedule
Join us starting May 28th, as meteorologists and climate scientists from across the US share their research and answer your questions.
wclivestream.com
May 28, 2025 at 12:40 AM
I strongly encourage folks to check out the rest of the event, which will feature dozens of speakers over a 5 day period. The line-up is genuinely impressive--a veritable who's who of the American #weather and #climate world in 2025--so I'll be watching! wclivestream.com/schedule