Quantlake
@quantlake.bsky.social
Beat fear. Beat FOMO. Stay disciplined with ETF insights and quant strategies. Not financial advice.
Gold Miners rally Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.63%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
ICLN Clean Energy +2.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
VNQ Real Estate -1.03%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -1.62%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.63%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
ICLN Clean Energy +2.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
VNQ Real Estate -1.03%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -1.62%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
January 29, 2026 at 12:27 PM
Gold Miners rally Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.63%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
ICLN Clean Energy +2.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
VNQ Real Estate -1.03%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -1.62%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.63%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
ICLN Clean Energy +2.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
VNQ Real Estate -1.03%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -1.62%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Long Treasuries edge down Wednesday
Market Summary:
Top 2:
TIP TIPS +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.16%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.23%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Summary:
Top 2:
TIP TIPS +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.16%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.23%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
January 29, 2026 at 12:26 PM
Long Treasuries edge down Wednesday
Market Summary:
Top 2:
TIP TIPS +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.16%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.23%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Summary:
Top 2:
TIP TIPS +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.16%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.23%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI 0–20
Jan 28
All conds: mean 1.53%, | Predicted declines 27.9%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.22%, | Predicted declines 16.2%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains and softened tail risk.
Jan 28
All conds: mean 1.53%, | Predicted declines 27.9%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.22%, | Predicted declines 16.2%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains and softened tail risk.
January 29, 2026 at 12:05 PM
SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI 0–20
Jan 28
All conds: mean 1.53%, | Predicted declines 27.9%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.22%, | Predicted declines 16.2%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains and softened tail risk.
Jan 28
All conds: mean 1.53%, | Predicted declines 27.9%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.22%, | Predicted declines 16.2%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains and softened tail risk.
Developed Markets slide Wednesday
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emerging Markets +0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 +0.33%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWM Russell 2000 -0.54%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -1.06%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emerging Markets +0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 +0.33%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWM Russell 2000 -0.54%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -1.06%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
January 29, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Developed Markets slide Wednesday
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emerging Markets +0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 +0.33%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWM Russell 2000 -0.54%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -1.06%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emerging Markets +0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 +0.33%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWM Russell 2000 -0.54%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -1.06%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SPY 1M forward returns average 2.94% vs a 1.22% baseline in Extreme Fear.
QHI is currently 84% below its 6-month average.
This regime shows deep psychological retreat. Historically, periods like this have seen a notable reversal.
QHI is currently 84% below its 6-month average.
This regime shows deep psychological retreat. Historically, periods like this have seen a notable reversal.
January 29, 2026 at 11:44 AM
SPY 1M forward returns average 2.94% vs a 1.22% baseline in Extreme Fear.
QHI is currently 84% below its 6-month average.
This regime shows deep psychological retreat. Historically, periods like this have seen a notable reversal.
QHI is currently 84% below its 6-month average.
This regime shows deep psychological retreat. Historically, periods like this have seen a notable reversal.
SPY Medium White Candle: Bullish Edge Amplified in Extreme Fear
Jan 27
All conds: mean 1.07% | Prices rose 69.1%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.43% | Prices rose 83.6%
Bullish returns and accuracy surge in Extreme Fear; risk softens but rare losses persist.
Jan 27
All conds: mean 1.07% | Prices rose 69.1%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.43% | Prices rose 83.6%
Bullish returns and accuracy surge in Extreme Fear; risk softens but rare losses persist.
January 27, 2026 at 12:58 PM
SPY Medium White Candle: Bullish Edge Amplified in Extreme Fear
Jan 27
All conds: mean 1.07% | Prices rose 69.1%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.43% | Prices rose 83.6%
Bullish returns and accuracy surge in Extreme Fear; risk softens but rare losses persist.
Jan 27
All conds: mean 1.07% | Prices rose 69.1%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.43% | Prices rose 83.6%
Bullish returns and accuracy surge in Extreme Fear; risk softens but rare losses persist.
Bitcoin Trust retreats Monday
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IYW US Technology +0.76%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.07%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IYW US Technology +0.76%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.07%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
January 27, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Bitcoin Trust retreats Monday
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IYW US Technology +0.76%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.07%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IYW US Technology +0.76%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.38%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.07%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Long Treasuries rise Monday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.48%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
BNDX Global Bonds +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.48%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
BNDX Global Bonds +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
January 27, 2026 at 12:35 PM
Long Treasuries rise Monday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.48%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
BNDX Global Bonds +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.48%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
BNDX Global Bonds +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Dividend Stocks rise Monday
What Happened:
Top 2:
DVY Dividend Stocks +0.71%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFIV ESG Equities +0.70%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.29%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
DVY Dividend Stocks +0.71%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFIV ESG Equities +0.70%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.29%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
January 27, 2026 at 12:33 PM
Dividend Stocks rise Monday
What Happened:
Top 2:
DVY Dividend Stocks +0.71%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFIV ESG Equities +0.70%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.29%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
DVY Dividend Stocks +0.71%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFIV ESG Equities +0.70%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.29%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Sentiment is at Extreme Fear, with QHI at a 277-day low. Historically, this has meant above-average forward returns for SPY over the next 1 and 3 months. SPY
January 27, 2026 at 11:38 AM
Sentiment is at Extreme Fear, with QHI at a 277-day low. Historically, this has meant above-average forward returns for SPY over the next 1 and 3 months. SPY
SPY Tweezers Top: Bearish Pattern Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI Lows
Jan 23
All conds: mean 0.95% | Predicted declines 29.4%
QHI 0–20: mean 2.51% | Predicted declines 13.3%
Bearish call failed overall and in QHI lows, with higher gains, lower tail risk.
Jan 23
All conds: mean 0.95% | Predicted declines 29.4%
QHI 0–20: mean 2.51% | Predicted declines 13.3%
Bearish call failed overall and in QHI lows, with higher gains, lower tail risk.
January 26, 2026 at 1:45 PM
SPY Tweezers Top: Bearish Pattern Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI Lows
Jan 23
All conds: mean 0.95% | Predicted declines 29.4%
QHI 0–20: mean 2.51% | Predicted declines 13.3%
Bearish call failed overall and in QHI lows, with higher gains, lower tail risk.
Jan 23
All conds: mean 0.95% | Predicted declines 29.4%
QHI 0–20: mean 2.51% | Predicted declines 13.3%
Bearish call failed overall and in QHI lows, with higher gains, lower tail risk.
Contrarian: Markets this scared have outperformed SPY by 2x in the following month.
20-day losing streak, QHI at 270-day low.
Fear’s loud, but data whispers—forward returns surge from here. SPY
20-day losing streak, QHI at 270-day low.
Fear’s loud, but data whispers—forward returns surge from here. SPY
January 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM
Contrarian: Markets this scared have outperformed SPY by 2x in the following month.
20-day losing streak, QHI at 270-day low.
Fear’s loud, but data whispers—forward returns surge from here. SPY
20-day losing streak, QHI at 270-day low.
Fear’s loud, but data whispers—forward returns surge from here. SPY
SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI 0–20
Jan 15
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish pattern failed; QHI 0–20 flipped returns positive and reduced downside tail risk.
Jan 15
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish pattern failed; QHI 0–20 flipped returns positive and reduced downside tail risk.
January 16, 2026 at 12:59 PM
SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI 0–20
Jan 15
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish pattern failed; QHI 0–20 flipped returns positive and reduced downside tail risk.
Jan 15
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish pattern failed; QHI 0–20 flipped returns positive and reduced downside tail risk.
Bitcoin Trust slides Thursday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +2.08%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
PAVE Infrastructure +1.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IBB Biotechnology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.60%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +2.08%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
PAVE Infrastructure +1.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IBB Biotechnology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.60%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
January 16, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Bitcoin Trust slides Thursday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +2.08%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
PAVE Infrastructure +1.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IBB Biotechnology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.60%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +2.08%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
PAVE Infrastructure +1.42%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IBB Biotechnology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -2.60%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Extreme fear stretches — SPY 1M returns are beating the usual average.
QHI at 13.1, lowest in 258 days, with a 15-day down streak (86th percentile).
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26% baseline.
Current level is -76% below the 12M average, and volatility is elevated.
QHI at 13.1, lowest in 258 days, with a 15-day down streak (86th percentile).
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26% baseline.
Current level is -76% below the 12M average, and volatility is elevated.
January 16, 2026 at 12:51 PM
Extreme fear stretches — SPY 1M returns are beating the usual average.
QHI at 13.1, lowest in 258 days, with a 15-day down streak (86th percentile).
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26% baseline.
Current level is -76% below the 12M average, and volatility is elevated.
QHI at 13.1, lowest in 258 days, with a 15-day down streak (86th percentile).
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26% baseline.
Current level is -76% below the 12M average, and volatility is elevated.
Intermediate Treasuries edge down Thursday
Market Summary:
Top 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.00%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.18%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Summary:
Top 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.00%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.18%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
January 16, 2026 at 12:48 PM
Intermediate Treasuries edge down Thursday
Market Summary:
Top 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.00%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.18%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Summary:
Top 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.00%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.18%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Mid-Cap Growth climbs Thursday
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.48%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SLYV Small-Cap Value +1.40%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWF Russell Growth +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.48%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SLYV Small-Cap Value +1.40%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWF Russell Growth +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
January 16, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Mid-Cap Growth climbs Thursday
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.48%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SLYV Small-Cap Value +1.40%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWF Russell Growth +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.48%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SLYV Small-Cap Value +1.40%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IWF Russell Growth +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets -0.04%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SPY Short Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in Extreme Fear
Jan 14
All conds: mean 1.3% | Predicted declines 29.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.7% | Predicted declines 15.3%
Bearish failed; Extreme Fear amplified gains and softened downside risk.
Jan 14
All conds: mean 1.3% | Predicted declines 29.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.7% | Predicted declines 15.3%
Bearish failed; Extreme Fear amplified gains and softened downside risk.
January 15, 2026 at 1:03 PM
SPY Short Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in Extreme Fear
Jan 14
All conds: mean 1.3% | Predicted declines 29.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.7% | Predicted declines 15.3%
Bearish failed; Extreme Fear amplified gains and softened downside risk.
Jan 14
All conds: mean 1.3% | Predicted declines 29.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 2.7% | Predicted declines 15.3%
Bearish failed; Extreme Fear amplified gains and softened downside risk.
Bitcoin Trust surges Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.49%: Bearish Mom. - Negative Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +0.88%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -1.23%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
IYW US Technology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.49%: Bearish Mom. - Negative Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +0.88%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -1.23%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
IYW US Technology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
January 15, 2026 at 6:27 AM
Bitcoin Trust surges Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.49%: Bearish Mom. - Negative Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +0.88%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -1.23%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
IYW US Technology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.49%: Bearish Mom. - Negative Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +0.88%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -1.23%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
IYW US Technology -1.31%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent.
Pessimism deepens — SPY 1M returns are topping the baseline.
QHI at 14.8 marks the lowest level since May 2025, and it’s the 3rd day in Extreme Fear.
14-day down streak beats most of history.
SPY’s 1M avg return in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26%.
QHI at 14.8 marks the lowest level since May 2025, and it’s the 3rd day in Extreme Fear.
14-day down streak beats most of history.
SPY’s 1M avg return in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26%.
January 15, 2026 at 6:25 AM
Pessimism deepens — SPY 1M returns are topping the baseline.
QHI at 14.8 marks the lowest level since May 2025, and it’s the 3rd day in Extreme Fear.
14-day down streak beats most of history.
SPY’s 1M avg return in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26%.
QHI at 14.8 marks the lowest level since May 2025, and it’s the 3rd day in Extreme Fear.
14-day down streak beats most of history.
SPY’s 1M avg return in this zone: 2.89% vs. 1.26%.
Long Treasuries climb Wednesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.58%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.25%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
Bottom 2:
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.03%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.58%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.25%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
Bottom 2:
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.03%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
January 15, 2026 at 6:25 AM
Long Treasuries climb Wednesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.58%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.25%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
Bottom 2:
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.03%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
Market Moves:
Top 2:
TLT Long Treasuries +0.58%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.25%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
Bottom 2:
VCSH Short Corporate +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.03%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
Dividend Stocks climb Wednesday
What Happened:
Top 2:
SDY Dividend Stocks +1.24%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
DVY High Dividend +1.20%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SPYG S&P Growth -1.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWF Russell Growth -1.19%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
SDY Dividend Stocks +1.24%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
DVY High Dividend +1.20%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SPYG S&P Growth -1.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWF Russell Growth -1.19%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
January 15, 2026 at 6:22 AM
Dividend Stocks climb Wednesday
What Happened:
Top 2:
SDY Dividend Stocks +1.24%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
DVY High Dividend +1.20%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SPYG S&P Growth -1.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWF Russell Growth -1.19%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
SDY Dividend Stocks +1.24%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
DVY High Dividend +1.20%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SPYG S&P Growth -1.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWF Russell Growth -1.19%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI 0–20
Jan 13
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains, softening downside risk.
Jan 13
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains, softening downside risk.
January 14, 2026 at 5:53 AM
SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Amplified in QHI 0–20
Jan 13
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains, softening downside risk.
Jan 13
All conds: mean 1.6% | Predicted declines 27.8%
In QHI 0–20: mean 3.1% | Predicted declines 17.1%
Bearish failed; QHI 0–20 amplified gains, softening downside risk.
Bitcoin Trust rallies Tuesday
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.28%: Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
GDX Gold Miners +0.78%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IYW US Technology -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility -0.61%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.28%: Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
GDX Gold Miners +0.78%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IYW US Technology -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility -0.61%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
January 14, 2026 at 5:51 AM
Bitcoin Trust rallies Tuesday
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.28%: Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
GDX Gold Miners +0.78%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IYW US Technology -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility -0.61%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Daily Snapshot: Top 2:
IBIT Bitcoin Trust +3.28%: Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
GDX Gold Miners +0.78%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
IYW US Technology -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
USMV Min Volatility -0.61%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Investment Grade Credit edges up Tuesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.22%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.17%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
BNDX Global Bonds -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.12%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Market Moves:
Top 2:
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.22%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.17%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
BNDX Global Bonds -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.12%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
January 14, 2026 at 5:48 AM
Investment Grade Credit edges up Tuesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.22%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.17%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
BNDX Global Bonds -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.12%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Market Moves:
Top 2:
LQD Inv. Grade Credit +0.22%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.17%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
BNDX Global Bonds -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.12%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.