Pseudoerasmus
@pseudoerasmus.bsky.social
I bleat about the history of global economic development
https://pseudoerasmus.substack.com/
https://pseudoerasmus.com
https://medium.com/@pseudoerasmus
https://pseudoerasmus.substack.com/
https://pseudoerasmus.com
https://medium.com/@pseudoerasmus
this is from David Reich
November 16, 2025 at 7:02 PM
this is from David Reich
In light of the genetic evidence about very long-run jati endogamy, what is the best case for the arguments put forth by Bayly and Dirks? I consider Bayly superior, but they both assume, as a matter of course, that caste identities had always been fluid in the pre-modern period without elaboration
November 16, 2025 at 6:28 PM
In light of the genetic evidence about very long-run jati endogamy, what is the best case for the arguments put forth by Bayly and Dirks? I consider Bayly superior, but they both assume, as a matter of course, that caste identities had always been fluid in the pre-modern period without elaboration
Many people are sceptical of Mokyr's idealist take on the Industrial Revolution, but even if you are suspicious, The Enlightened Economy is still a tremendous book. I think this review in JEL gives the correct flavour. It says the comprehensiveness is a curse, but the 'curse' teaches you a lot !!!
October 13, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Many people are sceptical of Mokyr's idealist take on the Industrial Revolution, but even if you are suspicious, The Enlightened Economy is still a tremendous book. I think this review in JEL gives the correct flavour. It says the comprehensiveness is a curse, but the 'curse' teaches you a lot !!!
Four items by Mokyr: the first is a topic already recognised by the Nobel, but the other three are less well known areas of Mokyr: his study of the Irish famine, his explanation of why the Dutch Republic was not the first, and his artisan theory of the Industrial Revolution.
October 13, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Four items by Mokyr: the first is a topic already recognised by the Nobel, but the other three are less well known areas of Mokyr: his study of the Irish famine, his explanation of why the Dutch Republic was not the first, and his artisan theory of the Industrial Revolution.
David Wootton, historian of science & author of The Invention of Science, which (in part) argues (contra the HoS orthodoxy) that science played an important part in the history of technology, credits Mokyr for resurrecting that argument. Footnote 11 takes you to 4 major works by Mokyr
October 13, 2025 at 1:52 PM
David Wootton, historian of science & author of The Invention of Science, which (in part) argues (contra the HoS orthodoxy) that science played an important part in the history of technology, credits Mokyr for resurrecting that argument. Footnote 11 takes you to 4 major works by Mokyr
I love the Aghion graduate growth theory textbook. There are many reasons, but one small one is that in Acemoglu's (left), developing countries merely import frontier tech & catch up, but in AGH (right) seemingly recognises actual history & suggests indigenous innovation is important à la East Asia
October 13, 2025 at 1:50 PM
I love the Aghion graduate growth theory textbook. There are many reasons, but one small one is that in Acemoglu's (left), developing countries merely import frontier tech & catch up, but in AGH (right) seemingly recognises actual history & suggests indigenous innovation is important à la East Asia
Aghion (et al) have a paper on China, they recognised long ago & before many that the Chinese model departs from the East Asia model in having a Darwinian struggle-to-the-death competition of firms behind a wall of protection. It pairs Schumpeterian growth theory w the economics of industrial policy
October 13, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Aghion (et al) have a paper on China, they recognised long ago & before many that the Chinese model departs from the East Asia model in having a Darwinian struggle-to-the-death competition of firms behind a wall of protection. It pairs Schumpeterian growth theory w the economics of industrial policy
very long-term, like on a multi-thousand year scale, different story. I'm a fan of this book
September 22, 2025 at 2:28 PM
very long-term, like on a multi-thousand year scale, different story. I'm a fan of this book
Wars were mostly bad for European economic development. Might be obvious to ordinary people, but it's not considered obvious in economic history. But I think it's obvious ;-)
Below from @sheilaghogilvie.bsky.social
Below from @sheilaghogilvie.bsky.social
September 22, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Wars were mostly bad for European economic development. Might be obvious to ordinary people, but it's not considered obvious in economic history. But I think it's obvious ;-)
Below from @sheilaghogilvie.bsky.social
Below from @sheilaghogilvie.bsky.social
Happy to see @victoriagierok.bsky.social argue ‘ “The state made war and war made the state” does not describe very aptly what happened during pre-industrial Europe’s largest wars’ in a recent paper on wealth destruction in urban Germany during the Thirty Years' War.
ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid...
ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid...
September 22, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Happy to see @victoriagierok.bsky.social argue ‘ “The state made war and war made the state” does not describe very aptly what happened during pre-industrial Europe’s largest wars’ in a recent paper on wealth destruction in urban Germany during the Thirty Years' War.
ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid...
ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid...
From a new paper by @mjdcurtis.bsky.social, David de la Croix, et al. The Little Divergence in 'academic human capital' (kind of publications index) btw northern & southern Europe started ca 1500. Northern Germany diverged from central & southern German areas after the Thirty Years' War.
September 21, 2025 at 3:25 PM
From a new paper by @mjdcurtis.bsky.social, David de la Croix, et al. The Little Divergence in 'academic human capital' (kind of publications index) btw northern & southern Europe started ca 1500. Northern Germany diverged from central & southern German areas after the Thirty Years' War.
I feel duty-bound to read the new book McCloskey is working on now, but if below is any guide, it does NOT look promising. As long-time followers know, I'm sympathetic to her point about enclosures but I have 2 objections, stylistic & substantive. Stylistic: her batshit crazy gratuitous rhetoric.
September 17, 2025 at 6:28 PM
I feel duty-bound to read the new book McCloskey is working on now, but if below is any guide, it does NOT look promising. As long-time followers know, I'm sympathetic to her point about enclosures but I have 2 objections, stylistic & substantive. Stylistic: her batshit crazy gratuitous rhetoric.
If modest pensions can measurably reduce the practice of old kinship systems (e.g., adult children residing with their parents), perhaps the impact of economic development on cultural change is severely underrated, and the reverse (impact of culture on economic development) highly overrated...
September 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
If modest pensions can measurably reduce the practice of old kinship systems (e.g., adult children residing with their parents), perhaps the impact of economic development on cultural change is severely underrated, and the reverse (impact of culture on economic development) highly overrated...
Acemoglu once said (dismissively), "It's all Jack Goody" regarding the (now) popular claim that the Catholic Church created the European Marriage Pattern. When you read Henrich it does seem synthesised from a variety of sources. But in fact their thesis is 95% Goody. He had said it all >40 years ago
September 17, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Acemoglu once said (dismissively), "It's all Jack Goody" regarding the (now) popular claim that the Catholic Church created the European Marriage Pattern. When you read Henrich it does seem synthesised from a variety of sources. But in fact their thesis is 95% Goody. He had said it all >40 years ago
Formal manufacturing firms in India have very low exit rates. Yet India’s most dynamic sector, software, has lower exit rates than firms in Morocco or Chile. As far as I can tell, India’s most dynamic states, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, also have lower exit rates than firms in those countries as well.
September 15, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Formal manufacturing firms in India have very low exit rates. Yet India’s most dynamic sector, software, has lower exit rates than firms in Morocco or Chile. As far as I can tell, India’s most dynamic states, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, also have lower exit rates than firms in those countries as well.
Interesting thing about the end of the Atlantic slave trade is, which had the bigger impact, the British suppression of the trade (supply) or the end of demand at the source?
Demand is overwhelmingly more important (as the authors also argue). Yet the British naval campaign gets far more attention!
Demand is overwhelmingly more important (as the authors also argue). Yet the British naval campaign gets far more attention!
September 14, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Interesting thing about the end of the Atlantic slave trade is, which had the bigger impact, the British suppression of the trade (supply) or the end of demand at the source?
Demand is overwhelmingly more important (as the authors also argue). Yet the British naval campaign gets far more attention!
Demand is overwhelmingly more important (as the authors also argue). Yet the British naval campaign gets far more attention!
ZERO growth, possibly even negative growth, in productivity across 55,000 smallholder farms across 6 African countries (Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzani) in 2008-2019, despite substantial investments.
September 13, 2025 at 4:42 PM
ZERO growth, possibly even negative growth, in productivity across 55,000 smallholder farms across 6 African countries (Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzani) in 2008-2019, despite substantial investments.
The great economic historian of 20th century China, Thomas Rawksi, weighs in on the Great Divergence debate!
Quite critical of Broadberry et al.'s claims about the precipitous decline of the Qing economy after 1700...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Quite critical of Broadberry et al.'s claims about the precipitous decline of the Qing economy after 1700...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
September 13, 2025 at 2:30 PM
The great economic historian of 20th century China, Thomas Rawksi, weighs in on the Great Divergence debate!
Quite critical of Broadberry et al.'s claims about the precipitous decline of the Qing economy after 1700...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Quite critical of Broadberry et al.'s claims about the precipitous decline of the Qing economy after 1700...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
I was going to tweet this last year but somehow I was impeded…
“When [economic] growth does, and does not, reduce poverty”
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
— A great literature review by a team including @paddycarter.bsky.social and @paulsegal.bsky.social
“When [economic] growth does, and does not, reduce poverty”
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
— A great literature review by a team including @paddycarter.bsky.social and @paulsegal.bsky.social
September 11, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I was going to tweet this last year but somehow I was impeded…
“When [economic] growth does, and does not, reduce poverty”
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
— A great literature review by a team including @paddycarter.bsky.social and @paulsegal.bsky.social
“When [economic] growth does, and does not, reduce poverty”
www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...
— A great literature review by a team including @paddycarter.bsky.social and @paulsegal.bsky.social
Trade liberalisation in 1960-2019 had a positive effect on growth for countries already exporting manufactured goods (>50% share in exports), but negative for countries which were exporting commodities at the time of liberalisation.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
September 4, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Trade liberalisation in 1960-2019 had a positive effect on growth for countries already exporting manufactured goods (>50% share in exports), but negative for countries which were exporting commodities at the time of liberalisation.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
You would really only compare with Muslim-majority countries, and South Asia (where it has fallen a lot).
September 3, 2025 at 2:47 PM
You would really only compare with Muslim-majority countries, and South Asia (where it has fallen a lot).
( By implication there is a poverty trap: slow growth => families remain more agricultural, less mobile geographically, less educated & higher fertility & more cousin marriages; which in turn contribute to underdevelopment in a vicious cycle. )
September 3, 2025 at 2:04 PM
( By implication there is a poverty trap: slow growth => families remain more agricultural, less mobile geographically, less educated & higher fertility & more cousin marriages; which in turn contribute to underdevelopment in a vicious cycle. )
An underrated reason for the persistence of cousin marriages: high fertility maintains a large supply of cousins. Could (help) explain why Pakistan’s first-cousin marriage rate is 50%!!! versus India and Bangladesh <10%.
September 3, 2025 at 2:00 PM
An underrated reason for the persistence of cousin marriages: high fertility maintains a large supply of cousins. Could (help) explain why Pakistan’s first-cousin marriage rate is 50%!!! versus India and Bangladesh <10%.
Last year nobody noticed Pickle's lunatic claim that extreme poverty in China rose from 5.6% in 1981 to 68% in 1995! You would think under-5 child mortality would skyrocket under such circumstances. No sign of it (but there was a slowdown in the rate of reduction in the 1980s relative to 1970s).
September 1, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Last year nobody noticed Pickle's lunatic claim that extreme poverty in China rose from 5.6% in 1981 to 68% in 1995! You would think under-5 child mortality would skyrocket under such circumstances. No sign of it (but there was a slowdown in the rate of reduction in the 1980s relative to 1970s).
Beyond the claim that the Peasants' War (1524–1525) turned the German Reformation distinctly conservative, there's a potential paper below along the lines of 'Peasants, knights, & princes: the Dissolution of the German Monasteries and the rise of state capacity' or some such thing...
September 1, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Beyond the claim that the Peasants' War (1524–1525) turned the German Reformation distinctly conservative, there's a potential paper below along the lines of 'Peasants, knights, & princes: the Dissolution of the German Monasteries and the rise of state capacity' or some such thing...