Thanks Henri! Agreed that the big problem is the commitment to future MW input, which is set to be long-lived, nonlinear, and bad for SLR and also overturning stability. And I agree the overturning will eventually re-establish once the MW input stabilises, but that could be 1000+ years away.

“This is a wake-up call,” said author and ACEAS Deputy Director, @profmattengland.bsky.social (UNSW). “The evidence shows us clearly that the MOC has slowed down, and if this trend continues the impacts on human societies, climate and ecosystems will be profound.”

Thank you! Yes the Antarctic MOC doesn’t drive as much poleward heat transport as the AMOC. But it is critical for recycling nutrients back to the sea surface. And there are concerns it can lead to more shelf water warming — an amplifying feedback.

Not downplaying the seriousness of an AMOC collapse — and not aiming to mislead! :-) Was just pointing out the Antarctic overturning is likely closer to being forced to a collapsed state. Did you watch the talk?

Yeah true that a Stonmel type irreversibility is not necessarily a thing here— but switching off Antarctic melt could take 1000s of years on our current trajectory. I meant a tipping point where a collapse is inevitable, and a stable off state would persist for a long long time.

☺️🙏 Thanks Seth!

Unfortunately not. We still have a situation where policymakers think Antarctica is too far away to matter. Nothing could be further from the truth.

#Matt_England 2021 post64
@profmattengland.bsky.social
6 pumps run the global ocean current.
2 northern pumps are 15% weak #AMOC
4 southern pump are 30% weak #AOC
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
#TP2.16.2
x.com/bratananium/...

Finally, some excellent resources on the 2023 SST anomalies:

@polarocean.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/pola...

@trackow.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/trac...

bsky.app/profile/mice...

@tguinaldo.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/tgui...

@profmattengland.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/prof...

#7A2.12 #AMOC and #AOC influences:
8. Teleconnections to Other Global Climate Impacts and Tipping Points.
@ryankatzrosene.bsky.social
What happens in the Atlantic doesn't just stay in the Atlantic.
@profmattengland.bsky.social
What happens in the
Antarctic
doesn't just stay in the Antarctic.

post52.3 ice shelves melt, from ocean below.
"It’s from the ocean back to the ice, and then back into the ocean again,
that can trigger a runaway change where we do see the overturning potentially collapse altogether"
@profmattengland.bsky.social said.
// same as #AMOC
grist.org/climate/anta...

#Matt_England 2025 post54
@profmattengland.bsky.social
1) ice shelves melt
2) Antarctic Overturning circulation slows
3) Less nutrients for phytoplankton moves up
4) less fish
5) less food for humans
@polarrobs.bsky.social
go.nature.com/45H0bqS
grist.org/climate/anta...

#Matt_England 2025 post61
The relentless warming of Antarctica and its surrounding waters is a long-term trend — a sort of chronic sickness for the far south.

@profmattengland.bsky.social "Every fraction of a degree" matters
go.nature.com/45H0bqS
grist.org/climate/anta...

#Matt_England 2025 post45
@profmattengland.bsky.social
The 25 page pdf is available.
note: There is a regime shift 2015 figure 1a.
Antarctica is 20Mkm² (bigger than Russia)
go.nature.com/45H0bqS
bsky.app/profile/natu...