In a new report using our global survey data, we show other democracies didn't expect Trump would win and were concerned about their country's relationship with the US under a Trump presidency, with only Israelis expressing optimism. Full report: prlpublic.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/reports/repo...

Attitudes toward backsliding have shifted. In Aug '24, when we asked Americans if they felt the country was headed toward the end of democracy, Rs were much more likely to be worried. With new results in the first weeks of the Trump presidency, Ds are now the resigned party and Rs are optimistic.

As a robustness check, we analyze 403 panel respondents who completed interviews before and after the election. Only the positive change in trust from the prior set of results survives, suggesting the election had minor effects on attitudes non-specific to the election.

Our main analysis uses time-series cross-sectional data in an ITS design. We have 990 pre-election and 1,000 post-election responses.

We find no difference in pre- and post-election levels of affective polarization, but there are some party-level differences. Democrats felt about 5% colder toward co-partisans after the election, whereas Republicans felt about 5% warmer toward out-partisans.

How did American attitudes toward democracy shift with the election? Our final Path to 2024 report shows substantive changes in perceptions of accuracy, trust, and resignation toward democratic backsliding.

Read the full report: prlpublic.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/reports/Elec...

Now published in PNAS! We had a survey in the field at the time of the first assassination attempt on Trump. We found that Rs became significantly less supportive of partisan violence and had increased in-party affect.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...