Canadian Aqua
@priorconfirmed.bsky.social
Canada shill. Economic stuffs
Causal diagram.
November 19, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Causal diagram.
The real price of oil and real foreign travel cost has a correlation of *-0.893*, incredible. Like this is mathematical proof that the deflator and exchange rate effects completely swamped the actual cost of flying.
November 19, 2025 at 1:24 AM
The real price of oil and real foreign travel cost has a correlation of *-0.893*, incredible. Like this is mathematical proof that the deflator and exchange rate effects completely swamped the actual cost of flying.
So when the price of oil went from $32 a barrel to $90 a barrel but air travel fell by this much in real terms? They had their sanity check but apparently just brushed it off.
November 19, 2025 at 1:24 AM
So when the price of oil went from $32 a barrel to $90 a barrel but air travel fell by this much in real terms? They had their sanity check but apparently just brushed it off.
This representation of the variable sums up the problem. The numerator is being pushed downward from the exchange rate, and the denominator is being pushed upward from the GDP deflator. The result is plummeting real prices.
November 19, 2025 at 1:24 AM
This representation of the variable sums up the problem. The numerator is being pushed downward from the exchange rate, and the denominator is being pushed upward from the GDP deflator. The result is plummeting real prices.
To establish causality they need an instrument for the supply of TFWs. They choose the "real price of air travel."
November 19, 2025 at 1:24 AM
To establish causality they need an instrument for the supply of TFWs. They choose the "real price of air travel."
So I was doing some perusing of the temporary foreign worker program literature and I found this paper. I believe I have identified multiple critical flaws in their paper. I'm baffled as to how these were not caught.
November 19, 2025 at 1:24 AM
So I was doing some perusing of the temporary foreign worker program literature and I found this paper. I believe I have identified multiple critical flaws in their paper. I'm baffled as to how these were not caught.
With the release of the 2022 supply and use tables and revisions, here's what the updated GDP per capita looks like. We'll have to wait later this month for 2025 updates. I just did a crude upward lift here since we only got annual up to 2024.
November 6, 2025 at 9:35 PM
With the release of the 2022 supply and use tables and revisions, here's what the updated GDP per capita looks like. We'll have to wait later this month for 2025 updates. I just did a crude upward lift here since we only got annual up to 2024.
Implicitly blaming international students for rising youth/overall unemployment. No wonder no one wants to come! And the private sector backs them up with it too. Like this is the kinda garbage pumped out. bsky.app/profile/prio...
November 5, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Implicitly blaming international students for rising youth/overall unemployment. No wonder no one wants to come! And the private sector backs them up with it too. Like this is the kinda garbage pumped out. bsky.app/profile/prio...
I just had to say something on this report by TD. Their argument for why unemployment would be higher in counterfactual world with higher population growth is drawing a straight line. Like my god, bank economists truly are topic economic minds.
October 31, 2025 at 6:55 PM
I just had to say something on this report by TD. Their argument for why unemployment would be higher in counterfactual world with higher population growth is drawing a straight line. Like my god, bank economists truly are topic economic minds.
Crazy how Denmark's youth unemployment rate starting going up at the exact same time as in Canada, must've been all the temporary foreign workers.
October 14, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Crazy how Denmark's youth unemployment rate starting going up at the exact same time as in Canada, must've been all the temporary foreign workers.
In addition, if StatCan were to adopt a more comprehensive definition of intangible capital (will not happen tbc) GDP would see a lift of 6.6%, 2019 would see a lift of 7.1%. If we trend the trend forward to 2024 we'd get 7.4%.
August 5, 2025 at 2:34 PM
In addition, if StatCan were to adopt a more comprehensive definition of intangible capital (will not happen tbc) GDP would see a lift of 6.6%, 2019 would see a lift of 7.1%. If we trend the trend forward to 2024 we'd get 7.4%.
With the adoption of the 2025 SNA coming around in 2029-2030, here's the impact on nominal GDP from the inclusion of data as recommended by it.
We see a slight shift upward (average of 2.2%) over 2000-2019 with it's impact growing over time. If the trend holds 2024 will be ≈2.6% high
We see a slight shift upward (average of 2.2%) over 2000-2019 with it's impact growing over time. If the trend holds 2024 will be ≈2.6% high
August 5, 2025 at 2:34 PM
With the adoption of the 2025 SNA coming around in 2029-2030, here's the impact on nominal GDP from the inclusion of data as recommended by it.
We see a slight shift upward (average of 2.2%) over 2000-2019 with it's impact growing over time. If the trend holds 2024 will be ≈2.6% high
We see a slight shift upward (average of 2.2%) over 2000-2019 with it's impact growing over time. If the trend holds 2024 will be ≈2.6% high
And there is labour composition. You can interpret this as improvement in the "quality" of the labour force. Line go up means higher quality workers.
June 25, 2025 at 12:05 PM
And there is labour composition. You can interpret this as improvement in the "quality" of the labour force. Line go up means higher quality workers.
And there's "Capital deepening" You can see absolutely massive growth here from 2000 to 2017 coming from the oil sands boom, not much growth since then.
And no, Mark Carney will not make another oil sands boom pipeline or not.
And no, Mark Carney will not make another oil sands boom pipeline or not.
June 25, 2025 at 12:05 PM
And there's "Capital deepening" You can see absolutely massive growth here from 2000 to 2017 coming from the oil sands boom, not much growth since then.
And no, Mark Carney will not make another oil sands boom pipeline or not.
And no, Mark Carney will not make another oil sands boom pipeline or not.
There's all factors.
June 25, 2025 at 12:05 PM
There's all factors.
An update to my TFP calculation. Made a coding error with the pre-2006 LFS data so it strongly overstated labour composition growth.
June 25, 2025 at 12:05 PM
An update to my TFP calculation. Made a coding error with the pre-2006 LFS data so it strongly overstated labour composition growth.
Wow even managed to squeeze into the article top minds like Ron Butler and Stephen Punwasi.
Wonderful quote from Butler here.
Wonderful quote from Butler here.
June 25, 2025 at 3:49 AM
Wow even managed to squeeze into the article top minds like Ron Butler and Stephen Punwasi.
Wonderful quote from Butler here.
Wonderful quote from Butler here.
Just one more graph. The original used usual hours worked, this one uses *actual* hours worked. It grows slightly faster.
June 21, 2025 at 6:51 AM
Just one more graph. The original used usual hours worked, this one uses *actual* hours worked. It grows slightly faster.
Capital services is the capital stock*capital composition, and labour services is hours worked*labour composition
June 21, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Capital services is the capital stock*capital composition, and labour services is hours worked*labour composition
There's the four series together, roughly TFP is calculated as TFP ~ ΔGDP-ΔCapital services-ΔLabour services
June 21, 2025 at 6:35 AM
There's the four series together, roughly TFP is calculated as TFP ~ ΔGDP-ΔCapital services-ΔLabour services
Ok there's the final product for quartrely total factor productivity! Happy with this for now.
June 21, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Ok there's the final product for quartrely total factor productivity! Happy with this for now.
Note the absolute explosion in capital services coming from the oil sands boom! Capital services growth really started rebounding until the pandemic hit :(
June 19, 2025 at 4:44 AM
Note the absolute explosion in capital services coming from the oil sands boom! Capital services growth really started rebounding until the pandemic hit :(
Really rough first pass at calculating TFP for Canada. A lot of stuff I'm really not happy about here that I'll be revisiting. I will also be extending this further back in time as well.
June 19, 2025 at 4:44 AM
Really rough first pass at calculating TFP for Canada. A lot of stuff I'm really not happy about here that I'll be revisiting. I will also be extending this further back in time as well.
LFS PUMFs were used with a greater number of worker types
My measure of labour quality displays evidence of "chain drift" as noted by the difference between calculating it at an annual rate vs quarterly. Benchmarking the quarterly series to the annual one, helps reduce it. 2/n
My measure of labour quality displays evidence of "chain drift" as noted by the difference between calculating it at an annual rate vs quarterly. Benchmarking the quarterly series to the annual one, helps reduce it. 2/n
June 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
LFS PUMFs were used with a greater number of worker types
My measure of labour quality displays evidence of "chain drift" as noted by the difference between calculating it at an annual rate vs quarterly. Benchmarking the quarterly series to the annual one, helps reduce it. 2/n
My measure of labour quality displays evidence of "chain drift" as noted by the difference between calculating it at an annual rate vs quarterly. Benchmarking the quarterly series to the annual one, helps reduce it. 2/n
In the process of replicating and extending Diewert and Yu (2012) where they calculate Total Factor Productivity but I will be doing it on a quarterly basis and extending it to the Present.
Multiplying labour quality by hours worked gives us our "labour services" input.
Details below 1/n
Multiplying labour quality by hours worked gives us our "labour services" input.
Details below 1/n
June 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
In the process of replicating and extending Diewert and Yu (2012) where they calculate Total Factor Productivity but I will be doing it on a quarterly basis and extending it to the Present.
Multiplying labour quality by hours worked gives us our "labour services" input.
Details below 1/n
Multiplying labour quality by hours worked gives us our "labour services" input.
Details below 1/n