Preston Mui
@prestonmui.bsky.social
Economist at Employ America | Kasia Niewiadoma Fanboy | Bird Liker
Seattle, WA
Seattle, WA
So the "$140k poverty line" article's main point is just a misunderstanding of how the poverty line is calculated
November 24, 2025 at 8:21 PM
So the "$140k poverty line" article's main point is just a misunderstanding of how the poverty line is calculated
New Indeed posted wage growth data out yesterday -- 2.38% year on year, a new low in this cycle
November 19, 2025 at 8:58 PM
New Indeed posted wage growth data out yesterday -- 2.38% year on year, a new low in this cycle
FOMC October Minutes
"Several" vs. "Many"
"Several" vs. "Many"
November 19, 2025 at 7:06 PM
FOMC October Minutes
"Several" vs. "Many"
"Several" vs. "Many"
PPI next Tuesday Nov 25
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
November 19, 2025 at 5:28 PM
PPI next Tuesday Nov 25
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
October JOLTS delayed a week (dec 9)
October Jobs day canceled
November Jobs day delayed a week (Dec 16th, after fomc)
The future of discourse
November 4, 2025 at 3:53 AM
The future of discourse
Ironically the accusations Miran (and rest of Trump admin) have levied against Fed are pro rate-cut:
1. PCE over CPI (core CPI > core PCE rn)
2. Too much control by the board (board is more dovish than regionals)
3. Woke DEI focus on marginalized groups (which cook is citing to dovish policy)
1. PCE over CPI (core CPI > core PCE rn)
2. Too much control by the board (board is more dovish than regionals)
3. Woke DEI focus on marginalized groups (which cook is citing to dovish policy)
November 3, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Ironically the accusations Miran (and rest of Trump admin) have levied against Fed are pro rate-cut:
1. PCE over CPI (core CPI > core PCE rn)
2. Too much control by the board (board is more dovish than regionals)
3. Woke DEI focus on marginalized groups (which cook is citing to dovish policy)
1. PCE over CPI (core CPI > core PCE rn)
2. Too much control by the board (board is more dovish than regionals)
3. Woke DEI focus on marginalized groups (which cook is citing to dovish policy)
The Indeed Wage Tracker growth rate has fallen a full percentage point year-to-date. Hard to see signs of re-acceleration here.
October 1, 2025 at 8:43 PM
The Indeed Wage Tracker growth rate has fallen a full percentage point year-to-date. Hard to see signs of re-acceleration here.
Just wrapped up 500ish miles of the Oregon backcountry
September 27, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Just wrapped up 500ish miles of the Oregon backcountry
off season is here... we're so back
September 10, 2025 at 2:18 AM
off season is here... we're so back
Perhaps some evidence of the immigration effect on payrolls: sectors with high rates of undocumented workers starting to see payroll declines vs. all employees. didn't see this when i first did it a few months ago
(sectoral data comes out with a month lag, so just through july)
(sectoral data comes out with a month lag, so just through july)
September 5, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Perhaps some evidence of the immigration effect on payrolls: sectors with high rates of undocumented workers starting to see payroll declines vs. all employees. didn't see this when i first did it a few months ago
(sectoral data comes out with a month lag, so just through july)
(sectoral data comes out with a month lag, so just through july)
seasonal adjustment does funny things
September 5, 2025 at 1:41 PM
seasonal adjustment does funny things
Contrasting long-term vs short-term unemployed tells a huge story
short-term unemployed is mostly about people losing jobs, long-term unemployed is about people not finding jobs
short-term unemployed is mostly about people losing jobs, long-term unemployed is about people not finding jobs
September 5, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Contrasting long-term vs short-term unemployed tells a huge story
short-term unemployed is mostly about people losing jobs, long-term unemployed is about people not finding jobs
short-term unemployed is mostly about people losing jobs, long-term unemployed is about people not finding jobs
September 5, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Which industries was trumponomics supposed to be helping again?
September 5, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Which industries was trumponomics supposed to be helping again?
Hotel wifi is a bit spotty so jobsposting may be slow today for me
Soft report (I wouldn't say disastrous) but things going in the wrong direction
Starting to see construction employment falling
#NumbersDay
Soft report (I wouldn't say disastrous) but things going in the wrong direction
Starting to see construction employment falling
#NumbersDay
September 5, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Hotel wifi is a bit spotty so jobsposting may be slow today for me
Soft report (I wouldn't say disastrous) but things going in the wrong direction
Starting to see construction employment falling
#NumbersDay
Soft report (I wouldn't say disastrous) but things going in the wrong direction
Starting to see construction employment falling
#NumbersDay
And as early as 2023:
September 4, 2025 at 3:41 PM
And as early as 2023:
Miran arguing that you can't criticize his revolving door movement b.t. White House and Fed b/c his fed proposals are a package proposal, can't view that in isolation
Not a view he held when he made similar criticisms of brainard and goolsbee long before his fed reform paper
Not a view he held when he made similar criticisms of brainard and goolsbee long before his fed reform paper
September 4, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Miran arguing that you can't criticize his revolving door movement b.t. White House and Fed b/c his fed proposals are a package proposal, can't view that in isolation
Not a view he held when he made similar criticisms of brainard and goolsbee long before his fed reform paper
Not a view he held when he made similar criticisms of brainard and goolsbee long before his fed reform paper
Services inflation is elevated because someone, not saying who, had a bad tummy this week and didn't improve until right after the expensive followup which turned out to be unnecessary
August 15, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Services inflation is elevated because someone, not saying who, had a bad tummy this week and didn't improve until right after the expensive followup which turned out to be unnecessary
It's important to remember that the Fed has had a track record of persistently underestimating the labor market. In the late-'90s and '10s, estimates of NAIRU were revised down as unemplyment fell.
Emphasizing shortfalls is imporant to prevent this form happening again
Emphasizing shortfalls is imporant to prevent this form happening again
August 14, 2025 at 8:51 PM
It's important to remember that the Fed has had a track record of persistently underestimating the labor market. In the late-'90s and '10s, estimates of NAIRU were revised down as unemplyment fell.
Emphasizing shortfalls is imporant to prevent this form happening again
Emphasizing shortfalls is imporant to prevent this form happening again