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porcoesphino.bsky.social
@porcoesphino.bsky.social
290 followers 480 following 1.4K posts
Exploring the world • Programmer • Flying • Scuba

Ex-mechatronics grad learning more about geology and biology and refreshing my maths and physics

(Also, set "alt text before posting" in accessibility.)

https://porcoesphino.github.io/phylogeny/
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porcoesphino.bsky.social
No, there was no argument, there was a description of a situation.

The shape of this chart doesn't change.

- A 15 year loan has unaffordable repayments for most.
- A 50 year loan has low equity at current resale (~12 years).
- A 30 year loan is improved for both.
Chart of "debt", "equity", and "annual payment" for a fixed rate home loan paying off a $100,000 home The bars for the annual payment is constant. The bars for the debt arc with little change at first and larger changes per year until the loan is repaid. The bars for the equity arc with little change at first and larger changes through the year.
November 12, 2025 at 6:34 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Oh wow! That interactive chart is great! And all the race breakdowns seem to show that spike in approval over the election period but with slightly different durations and trends after. The "other" demographic seems to be the only one with more positive approval now than in mid 2024. I wonder why
A five year timeline plot of Donald Trump favourability with the cursor placed about election time. This chart shows one racial breakdown, "other" (for this data that is not white, black or hispanic). For most of 2024: - Disapproval was about 65% - Approval was about 35% Just before election there is a spike with approval just above disapproval for maybe one survey and then trend returns to a noisy baseline without an obvious positive of negative trend with: - Disapproval about 55% - Approval about 40% A five year timeline plot of Donald Trump favourability with the cursor placed about election time. This chart shows one racial breakdown, "hispanic". For most of 2024: - Disapproval was about 60% - Approval was about 40% Just before election there is a spike where approval is higher than disapproval and then trend has slowly returned to the previous values over the last year. A five year timeline plot of Donald Trump favourability with the cursor placed about election time. This chart shows one racial breakdown, "black". For most of 2024: - Disapproval was about 80% - Approval was about 20% Just before election there is a spike for more favourable views of Trump but approval rates never go higher than disapproval rates. Very soon after the election the trend returns roughly to its previous values and then slowly trends more disapproving. A five year timeline plot of Donald Trump favourability with the cursor placed about election time. This chart shows one racial breakdown, "white". For most of 2024: - Disapproval was slightly below 50% - Approval was slightly above 50% Just before election there is a spike with approval reaching about 55% and disapproval reaching about 45% and then trend lasts a few months before slowly drifting until approval and disapproval is roughly the same.
October 29, 2025 at 8:34 AM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
It looks like sales of non-electric cars peaked in Australia and I didn't know. I checked after reading this summary from Our World in Data about sales in China and globally:

ourworldindata.org/data-insight...
Number of new cars sold in Australia from 2012 to 2024 as a stacked histogram of: - electric cars - non-electric cars From 2017 to 2020 sales drop by about 25%. From 2020 to 2021 sales of both electric and non-electric increase so the total is just below 2018 levels. From 2021-2024 the non-electric sales are roughly level with electric sales increasing
October 26, 2025 at 9:58 AM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
This is the first democratic index I'm aware of that includes Donald Trump's second term. The democratic backsliding is obvious. I didn't include it, but the chart comparing responses by Democrats, Republicans and experts is fascinating

brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...
Expert evaluations of democratic performance over time Ordered by change since November '24 Box and asterisk denote significant change since November '24 (p<.01) These were all a drop in democratic performance, some large Agencies do not punish * No interference with press* Legislature can limit executive * Gov stats are not influenced * Judicial independence * Constitution limits executive * No private gains from office * Sanctions for misconduct Common understanding of facts Patriotism not questioned Military not exploited Equal political/legal rights * Equal voting rights * All parties allowed * Fraud-free elections * No foreign influence Contribs not determine policy Law enforcement neutral Free speech Protest tolerated * Judiciary can limit executive* Law applies equally * Compromise sought * Districts not biased Votes have equal impact Investigations not compromised* No political violence * Opinions heard on policy* Concedes defeat Participation high Candidates disclose info Campaign funds transparent Law enforcement not exploited Military neutral Organizations independent Expert perceptions of threats and benefits to democracy Pruned list for when 75% saw an issue as a serious threat Rep. Hortman and spouse killed 95% BLS commissioner fired TX redraws map UCLA faces demands from Trump SCOTUS allows firing independent agency members without cause Trump attempts to fire Cook National Guard deployed to L.A. Columbia settles FCC approves merger after Paramount settlement National Guard deployed in D.C. SCOTUS allows DHS to deport noncitizens without notice Bolton house raided Red states send National Guard to D.C. Paramount settles with Trump Charlie Kirk killed Trump to create Natl. Guard quick reaction force NY AG investigated for mortgage fraud Political approval required for research grants SCOTUS allows mass layoffs ICE expands enforcement and detention Baraka and Mclver charged outside immigration facility Trump claims authority to use military force vs smugglers Expert perceptions of threats and benefits to democracy An ordered descending list of issues clipped so all issues have more than 75% of experts perceiving the issue as a serious threat Third term sought by Trump Habeas corpus suspended Insurrection Act invoked Orders to not enforce court order Case stalled against ally of president Military deployed against "voter fraud" in 2026 Case opened against opponent of president U.S. citizen imprisoned abroad Birthright citizenship denied U.S. citizen denaturalized National Guard deployments to new cities SCOTUS limits Voting Rights Act Obama official indicted for Trump/Russia investigation Economic indicator altered or delayed Census ordered before 2030 Byrd Rule bypassed in reconciliation bill Harvard settles with Trump admin. Expert ratings of greatest threats to democracy in Trump's second term Listed items are seen as a serious by a threat by 75% of experts ## Trump Il threats DOJ investigators fired Refusal to return Abrego Garcia Jan 6 offenders pardoned DOJ investigate ActBlue 12+ inspectors general fired National Guard deployed to L.A. Musk advisor to Trump Pressure on Columbia and Harvard Revoke Harvard tax exemption DOGE access federal systems # Potential future threats Third term sought by Trump Habeas corpus suspended Citizens to El Salvador Insurrection Act invoked Orders to not enforce court order Military deployed against voter fraud" in midterms Unprecedented denaturalizations Case opened against opponent of president Case stalled against ally of president SCOTUS limits Voting Rights Act
October 3, 2025 at 9:32 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Oh, there is a little more. Quoting "Letters from an American" by Heather Cox Richardson:

heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-...
During his monologue on Monday's show, Kimmel said: "We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them, and doing everything they can to score political points from it. In between the finger-pointing, there was grieving. On Friday, the White House flew the flags at half staff which got some criticism but on a human level you can see how hard the president is taking this." Kimmel then played a clip of Trump's response to a reporter who asked how the president was holding up after Kirk's death. Trump answered: "I think very good. And by the way right there you see all the trucks, they just started construction of the new ballroom for the White House which is something they've been trying to get as you know for about for 150 years and it's gonna be a beauty."
September 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
It's fascinating to me that as peoples income compared to spending improves the segment that thinks they are doing worse has an uptick on the high end. From FEDS Notes earlier in the year:

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
A chart with "% change in Annual Income minus %Change in Overall Spending" along the x-axis with buckets from less than -70% to greater than 30%. The chart is a stacked histogram bucketing people based on how well they feel they are doing now compared to 2019 before the pandemic. In the high end, on the bottom right, there is a small uptick.
September 17, 2025 at 5:23 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
There isn't?

I just did a lazy search, but wouldn't things like this be age restricted or not allowed in most elementary schools? That is particularly christian values but I think that would be true of a lot of non-Hindu Asia too
A screenshot from a wikipedia article that shows Hindu statues in different sexual positions
August 11, 2025 at 10:32 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Here's the Mark Ruffalo comment about Joe Rogan:

www.threads.com/@markruffalo...
@markruffalo on threads: > Dear @joerogan. It's a little late now to pretend like project 2025 didn't exist and wasn't the play book all along. You are either not that smart or not that dumb. It's hard to tell at this point. Responding to @thetnholler on threads that have quoted @joeroganhq: > Joe Rogan: "It's insane. The targeting of migrant workers, not cartel members, not gang members, not drug dealers. Just construction workers showing up on construction sites and raiding them "
July 10, 2025 at 5:31 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
@garymarcus.bsky.social continues stating what should be obvious about statistical parrots but goes into detail on the lack of a world model and has some great examples and simple explanations:

garymarcus.substack.com/p/generative...
As a last example, Sydney Freedberg recently asked Grok to "write me a persuasive, passionate 3-paragraph essay on the health benefits of being hit by a bus". Grok, unconstrained by deep knowledge of biology, wrote this: > Being hit by a bus might sound like a catastrophe, but it can be a transformative wake-up call that sparks profound health benefits. > > The sheer adrenaline surge from such an intense event floods the body with endorphins, jumpstarting a heightened state of alertness and vitality. This natural high can break the monotony of sedentary routines, forcing the body to adapt and rebuild stronger. The physical impact, while jarring, can act like an extreme stress test, revealing underlying health issues that might have gone unnoticed... This advice from Google Al overviews (noted by Vince Conitzer on Facebook) on what to do if you see your best friend kissing his own wife: > If you see your best friend kissing his own wife, the best approach is to remain calm and avoid immediate confrontation. Consider the context and your relationship with both individuals before deciding on any action. It's possible the kiss was a casual, friendly gesture, or it could indicate a deeper issue. Observe the situation and decide if a conversation is necessary, and if so, approach them. In the tricky world of human relationships, parroting words can only get you so far.
June 29, 2025 at 9:11 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
This unreal?
Sunset view of a tree during sunset with a fuzzy glowing trunk A zoomed view of a tree during sunset showing mayflies covering the trunk and glowing in the refracted light A view of a picnic area during sunset with a swarm of mayflies in the air and a spiderweb at capacity
June 27, 2025 at 1:33 AM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
But not before the after hours market closed, and since then the stock has gone up
Tesla stock price chart with after hours in dotted gray. The price has increased in the after hours, after the earnings call
April 22, 2025 at 10:24 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Yeah, to try to stop myself spiralling in November last year I wrote a three page doc of my concerns with Trump winning. I missed this. But I also wrote a similar length doc on why Trump won. I guessed how you could make immigration go down but discounted they'd actually do it
Text with one section highlighted: """ l'd argue to have an effect on immigration you have to make the US seem like more of a probable hellhole than [having your passport stolen and taken into prostitution]. I have no doubt a government could do that, I'm just pretty sure I don't want to be associated with one that makes those sorts of choices, especially at a time when things really aren't close to famine or war. """
April 17, 2025 at 3:54 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Are they quoting their own status update, that seems to have misrepresented and misquoted the courts as their justification that he's a gang member?

www.courtlistener.com/docket/69777...
6. During proceedings in 2019, an immigration judge upheld DHS’s decision not to grant bond, finding that DHS’s determination that he was a member of MS-13 was “trustworthy” and “supported by other evidence,” and noted that Abrego-Garcia “failed to present evidence to rebut that assertion.” The Board of Immigration Appeals upheld the finding when Abrego-Garcia appealed.
April 14, 2025 at 10:19 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Ha. I didn't know. Why El Salvador makes a bit more sense now

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
Top five countries by incarceration rates. Rates are per 100,000 inhabitants. Brackets contain the total number of incarcerated people. 1. El Salvador: 1,659 (109,519) 2. Cuba: 794 (90,000) 3. Rwanda: 637 (89,034) 4. Turkmenistan: 576 (35,000) 5. United States: 541 (1,808,100)
April 14, 2025 at 8:52 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Consumer sentiment by party, in the US, has been a joke for a while now:

www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...
Consumer sentiment from 2016 to early 2015 split by party. Each time the executive branch changes, sentiment swings about 40 percent points for each of the parties
April 12, 2025 at 3:07 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Whoa, there's a spider that cartwheels:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cebrenn...

(The Wikipedia preview doesn't show the video so I've uploaded it here)
April 5, 2025 at 4:54 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
It's ironic to use the "misleading" label with screenshots that portray the label itself as misleading. For anyone curious why the outcome is "misleading", here's the truthful part to Trump's claims:
A screenshot of an article with the text: The maximum tariff rates for multiple U.S. dairy products exported to Canada do approach or exceed the 250%-270% range. For example, as of Jan. 1, the maximum Canadian import tariff was 245.5% for cheese and curd, 298.5% for butter, and 241% for liquid milk. However, Trump failed to mention that these large tariffs are levied only if U.S. dairy exports exceed a predetermined quota.
April 2, 2025 at 7:29 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Oh, that's a lot more literal than I understood from your initial message
March 29, 2025 at 6:55 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
I tried this on a flight. I'm not sure if the image loaded before we landed or not
A screenshot of meta ai with the request "can you make a diagram of the rotator cuff muscles". The generated image had artificial colouring to highlight the different muscles, but the "chest" is shown of some three headed alien thing
March 29, 2025 at 5:49 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Here's the main study for the article:

www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/users/gambet...

It's a bit dated so I'm curious what recent research suggests. And I don't think it makes the case as strong as that article does, but this isolated paragraph from the paper does. Thanks for sharing
The mindset hypothesis predicts that we should find engineers to have i) more extreme ideological tendencies than people in other disciplines, and (i1) a greater predilection towards joining radical political groups in general. If engineers really do have a special mindset these predictions should be verifiable independently of Islamism. Our findings concerning non-Islamic extremists show that, to some extent, (ii) is the case, but with respect to right-wing groups only. If engineers radicalise, they do so on the right of the political spectrum, not on the left. If their mindset explains this divide, then it would imply that they are inclined towards pursuing radical change only if this is aimed at establishing a strong social order. Italian engineers were attracted by Fascism's corporate ideology and vigorously supported Mussolini's regime (Tacchi 1994), and German engineers gave their enthusiastic backing to Fritz Todt, the man who re-organised the engineers of the Third Reich and whose ideology combined rapid technological progress with a reactionary worldview (Herf 1984: 199-201). Without their unconditional collaboration it is inconceivable that Germany could have become a military-industrial giant in less than a decade.
March 22, 2025 at 8:49 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
My funniest was a different Jason scene:
Four screens from The Good Place: Jason: What do you guys think The Bad Place is gonna be for you? Jason: I'll probably go to a Skrillex concert... Jason: and I'll be waiting for the base drop, and it... Jason: ...it'll never come.
March 13, 2025 at 1:54 AM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Actually, these rocks look suspiciously unstable. I think I've just spent too long staring at the image
Screenshot of earlier crater lake photo with rocks circles that look like they are sitting on the ground, but are on the roof. The top edge of the cave also looks more jagged then you'd expect from weathering, especially from how soft the conglomerate looks
March 10, 2025 at 1:24 AM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Link?
March 4, 2025 at 10:57 PM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
Not for everyone it seems and some trackers for uptime agree
Status report saying "Pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov is DOWNz It is not just you. The server is not responding..." from isitdownrightnow.com
March 2, 2025 at 7:54 AM
porcoesphino.bsky.social
If anyone would donate more if it was tax deductible, in the US, that org seems to be the Ukraine House DC Foundation, based on Wikipedia:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United2...
With respect to the U.S. tax deductibility of donations to United 24, in response to the question, "are donations tax-deductable?", the response provided is, "UNITED24 is not an NGO, but it can collaborate with international NGOs. The official partner of UNITED24 in the United States is Ukraine House DC Foundation, a 501(c)3 registered nonprofit organization (EIN 872080907). Donations to Medical Aid and Rebuild Ukraine are tax-deductible under IRS regulations to the full extent".
March 2, 2025 at 7:40 AM