After a year marked by numerous national elections across the EU, POLITICO Poll of Polls continues to track voting intention trends for the upcoming national elections and combines them into an EU-wide seat tracker.
🗳️ The full report is available exclusively to POLITICO Pro Analysis subscribers

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🤝 The scenario analysis predicts a clear majority for the longstanding “grand coalition plus” formed by EPP, S&D, and RE. So the center holds, but the right-wing surge continues. The sometimes discussed alliance of EPP, ECR, and RE would again fall short of a majority based on our seat estimate.

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✨Our exclusive analysis, with polling trends from all 27 EU countries, assigns seats of new unaffiliated parties, resulting in a comprehensive seat estimate.

The full breakdown of our scenario analysis:
- EPP: 175 seats
- S&D: 145
- ECR: 91
- ID: 91
- RE: 87
- Greens: 47
- Left: 33
- NI: 51

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📈 With the Dutch election results in, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group surges in the seat tracker, catching up with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) at 91 seats. A noteworthy shift that leaves Renew Europe (RE) statistically tied with these two groups for 3rd place.

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Kudos to @ivobantel.bsky.social and Rodrigo Gutierrez who crunched and visualized the @pollofpolls.bsky.social data.

🏛️ The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) continues to lead with 175 seats, maintaining its edge over the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group at 145 seats.

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