Political Analysis
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polanalysis.bsky.social
Political Analysis
@polanalysis.bsky.social
Official Journal of the Society for Political Methodology
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis
The authors provide a framework to evaluate codebook-LLM measurement, classifying unlabeled documents with LLMs given a human-written codebook. Ultimately, supervised instruction-tuning can substantially improve performance. Read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as Measurement Tools for Political Science Concepts | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as Measurement Tools for Political Science Concepts
www.cambridge.org
November 27, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Bipartite networks are common in social science, but researchers often project data on unipartite networks for analysis. This new model uncovers patterns across node types, uses covariates to explain ties, and fits efficiently. Read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A Statistical Model of Bipartite Networks: Application to Cosponsorship in the United States Senate | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
A Statistical Model of Bipartite Networks: Application to Cosponsorship in the United States Senate
www.cambridge.org
November 20, 2025 at 6:05 PM
GNNs are advantageous because they can be trained, saved, and deployed on new data, and they can also generate synthetic data. The paper uses the militarized international disputes dataset to illustrate potential applications. Read the paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data
www.cambridge.org
November 18, 2025 at 6:11 PM
The package is demonstrated using several political examples where researchers may wish to join messy data. The fuzzylink package outperforms existing methods and even allows researchers to link datasets across languages. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Probabilistic Record Linkage Using Pretrained Text Embeddings | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Probabilistic Record Linkage Using Pretrained Text Embeddings
www.cambridge.org
November 13, 2025 at 6:05 PM
The authors apply the SIR model to data on monthly conflict events between countries, highlighting the model’s ability to illustrate complex influence patterns within networks by linking them to specific covariates. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Decomposing Network Influence: Social Influence Regression | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Decomposing Network Influence: Social Influence Regression
www.cambridge.org
November 11, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Using House procedural vs final passage votes, the model shows that minority-party members and legislators from moderate constituencies are most likely to shift positions across domains. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models
www.cambridge.org
November 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
This is validated using Arabic-language media published during the Arab Spring. Existing expert-based indices perform less well in stable autocracies, failing to detect short-term or subtle variations in media criticism. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings
www.cambridge.org
November 4, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The advantages are validated on a set of appellate decisions. These ideology estimates predict outcomes more accurately than existing appellate measures, and can inform debates on the nature of judicial ideology and decision-making. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology
www.cambridge.org
October 30, 2025 at 5:05 PM
The authors replicate a study on parties’ use of moral foundations and show how different measurements can lead to opposite effect directions. They also offer best practices for studying moral foundations in political texts. Read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos
www.cambridge.org
October 28, 2025 at 4:35 PM
The method is demonstrated by extracting agenda items from city council meeting minutes. This workflow can accurately extract subsections of text from a document and required only a few hand labeled documents to train. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision
www.cambridge.org
October 21, 2025 at 4:35 PM
They use BCCP to forecast fatalities from armed conflicts and demonstrate that it provides well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The authors also provide guidance and an R package for the BCCP algorithm. You can read the paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict
www.cambridge.org
October 17, 2025 at 5:06 PM
The authors replicate existing experiments and find that precision gains from block-randomized or pre-post designs can withstand sample loss that may arise during implementation. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design
www.cambridge.org
October 14, 2025 at 4:35 PM
The CPW estimator is demonstrated using a replication of a survey experiment, and shows stronger treatment effects than previously found. This suggests that meaningful effects can be missed using alternative approaches. You can read the full paper here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction
www.cambridge.org
October 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM