Philipp Heil
@philippheil.bsky.social
Postdoctoral Researcher @HEC Paris, interested in Behavioral Macroeconomics and Public Economics.
https://sites.google.com/view/philipp-heil/start
https://sites.google.com/view/philipp-heil/start
Maybe of interest for @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social @s-stantcheva.bsky.social @woessmann.bsky.social @clemensfuest.bsky.social @johanneswohlfart.bsky.social @lergetporer.bsky.social @ihaal.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
For more details, check out our paper: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...
Client Challenge
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www.ifo.de
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
For more details, check out our paper: www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...
10/10
Takeaway:
Households place real economic value on expert narratives.
Narratives:
✅ are in high demand
✅ improve understanding
✅ shape beliefs
✅ complement, not substitute, numerical forecasts
Policy communication should use clear explanations, not just numbers.
Takeaway:
Households place real economic value on expert narratives.
Narratives:
✅ are in high demand
✅ improve understanding
✅ shape beliefs
✅ complement, not substitute, numerical forecasts
Policy communication should use clear explanations, not just numbers.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
10/10
Takeaway:
Households place real economic value on expert narratives.
Narratives:
✅ are in high demand
✅ improve understanding
✅ shape beliefs
✅ complement, not substitute, numerical forecasts
Policy communication should use clear explanations, not just numbers.
Takeaway:
Households place real economic value on expert narratives.
Narratives:
✅ are in high demand
✅ improve understanding
✅ shape beliefs
✅ complement, not substitute, numerical forecasts
Policy communication should use clear explanations, not just numbers.
9/10
Narratives also affect spending beliefs:
They make people less likely to say “now is a good time to spend,” especially on durable goods.
Effects are amplified when combined with Fed forecasts.
But: no effect on personal spending plans or policy preferences.
Narratives also affect spending beliefs:
They make people less likely to say “now is a good time to spend,” especially on durable goods.
Effects are amplified when combined with Fed forecasts.
But: no effect on personal spending plans or policy preferences.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
9/10
Narratives also affect spending beliefs:
They make people less likely to say “now is a good time to spend,” especially on durable goods.
Effects are amplified when combined with Fed forecasts.
But: no effect on personal spending plans or policy preferences.
Narratives also affect spending beliefs:
They make people less likely to say “now is a good time to spend,” especially on durable goods.
Effects are amplified when combined with Fed forecasts.
But: no effect on personal spending plans or policy preferences.
8/10
Narratives shape beliefs — but not numeric expectations.
Narratives do not change recession probability estimates.
But they strongly shift qualitative beliefs about recession drivers.
They also increase understanding of macroeconomic mechanisms.
Narratives shape beliefs — but not numeric expectations.
Narratives do not change recession probability estimates.
But they strongly shift qualitative beliefs about recession drivers.
They also increase understanding of macroeconomic mechanisms.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
8/10
Narratives shape beliefs — but not numeric expectations.
Narratives do not change recession probability estimates.
But they strongly shift qualitative beliefs about recession drivers.
They also increase understanding of macroeconomic mechanisms.
Narratives shape beliefs — but not numeric expectations.
Narratives do not change recession probability estimates.
But they strongly shift qualitative beliefs about recession drivers.
They also increase understanding of macroeconomic mechanisms.
7/10
When given a choice between narratives:
Most pick the consensus narrative, but pessimistic narratives also attract attention.
Most people prefer the narrative they believe to be most informative — not the one that simply confirms their priors.
When given a choice between narratives:
Most pick the consensus narrative, but pessimistic narratives also attract attention.
Most people prefer the narrative they believe to be most informative — not the one that simply confirms their priors.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
7/10
When given a choice between narratives:
Most pick the consensus narrative, but pessimistic narratives also attract attention.
Most people prefer the narrative they believe to be most informative — not the one that simply confirms their priors.
When given a choice between narratives:
Most pick the consensus narrative, but pessimistic narratives also attract attention.
Most people prefer the narrative they believe to be most informative — not the one that simply confirms their priors.
6/10
Who pays for economic narratives?
• Higher income → higher WTP
• Women & more patient respondents → higher WTP
• Older & more uncertain individuals → lower WTP
Motives for acquisition are mainly intrinsic: people want to understand the economy, not just make money.
Who pays for economic narratives?
• Higher income → higher WTP
• Women & more patient respondents → higher WTP
• Older & more uncertain individuals → lower WTP
Motives for acquisition are mainly intrinsic: people want to understand the economy, not just make money.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
6/10
Who pays for economic narratives?
• Higher income → higher WTP
• Women & more patient respondents → higher WTP
• Older & more uncertain individuals → lower WTP
Motives for acquisition are mainly intrinsic: people want to understand the economy, not just make money.
Who pays for economic narratives?
• Higher income → higher WTP
• Women & more patient respondents → higher WTP
• Older & more uncertain individuals → lower WTP
Motives for acquisition are mainly intrinsic: people want to understand the economy, not just make money.
5/10
Main Finding: People are willing to pay a lot for narratives.
Average WTP for an expert narrative = $4.23
WTP for a numerical Fed recession forecast = $3.61
That’s roughly the price of a Financial Times newspaper.
Narratives are valued at least as much or even more than hard numbers.
Main Finding: People are willing to pay a lot for narratives.
Average WTP for an expert narrative = $4.23
WTP for a numerical Fed recession forecast = $3.61
That’s roughly the price of a Financial Times newspaper.
Narratives are valued at least as much or even more than hard numbers.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
5/10
Main Finding: People are willing to pay a lot for narratives.
Average WTP for an expert narrative = $4.23
WTP for a numerical Fed recession forecast = $3.61
That’s roughly the price of a Financial Times newspaper.
Narratives are valued at least as much or even more than hard numbers.
Main Finding: People are willing to pay a lot for narratives.
Average WTP for an expert narrative = $4.23
WTP for a numerical Fed recession forecast = $3.61
That’s roughly the price of a Financial Times newspaper.
Narratives are valued at least as much or even more than hard numbers.
4/10
We first collected recession narratives from experts: why they think recession risk is high.
The dominant narrative: tight monetary policy.
Other narratives: geopolitical risks, low consumer spending, etc.
These expert narratives are then offered to households for real money.
We first collected recession narratives from experts: why they think recession risk is high.
The dominant narrative: tight monetary policy.
Other narratives: geopolitical risks, low consumer spending, etc.
These expert narratives are then offered to households for real money.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
4/10
We first collected recession narratives from experts: why they think recession risk is high.
The dominant narrative: tight monetary policy.
Other narratives: geopolitical risks, low consumer spending, etc.
These expert narratives are then offered to households for real money.
We first collected recession narratives from experts: why they think recession risk is high.
The dominant narrative: tight monetary policy.
Other narratives: geopolitical risks, low consumer spending, etc.
These expert narratives are then offered to households for real money.
3/10
We combine:
1. A comprehensive expert survey (160 U.S.-based academic economists)
2. A large-scale, nationally representative household survey (9,123 respondents)
3. An incentivized willingness-to-pay experiment
The context: historically high U.S. recession probabilities in late 2023.
We combine:
1. A comprehensive expert survey (160 U.S.-based academic economists)
2. A large-scale, nationally representative household survey (9,123 respondents)
3. An incentivized willingness-to-pay experiment
The context: historically high U.S. recession probabilities in late 2023.
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
3/10
We combine:
1. A comprehensive expert survey (160 U.S.-based academic economists)
2. A large-scale, nationally representative household survey (9,123 respondents)
3. An incentivized willingness-to-pay experiment
The context: historically high U.S. recession probabilities in late 2023.
We combine:
1. A comprehensive expert survey (160 U.S.-based academic economists)
2. A large-scale, nationally representative household survey (9,123 respondents)
3. An incentivized willingness-to-pay experiment
The context: historically high U.S. recession probabilities in late 2023.
2/10
Economic narratives — explanations of economic phenomena — are everywhere in media and public debate.
But: Most research so far focuses on the effects of narratives once people receive them.
We ask a more fundamental question:
Do households actually want to pay for such narratives?
Economic narratives — explanations of economic phenomena — are everywhere in media and public debate.
But: Most research so far focuses on the effects of narratives once people receive them.
We ask a more fundamental question:
Do households actually want to pay for such narratives?
October 24, 2025 at 7:20 AM
2/10
Economic narratives — explanations of economic phenomena — are everywhere in media and public debate.
But: Most research so far focuses on the effects of narratives once people receive them.
We ask a more fundamental question:
Do households actually want to pay for such narratives?
Economic narratives — explanations of economic phenomena — are everywhere in media and public debate.
But: Most research so far focuses on the effects of narratives once people receive them.
We ask a more fundamental question:
Do households actually want to pay for such narratives?