L'une des plus belles années de ma vie ! La CIUP est un milieu de vie exceptionnelle, et nous devrions nous en inspirer.

Merci beaucoup pour vos bons mots, monsieur Provost !

Merci beaucoup, Daniel !

These trends may still evolve. But one thing is clear: ideology remains a central force shaping vote choice in France—even in a political era marked by volatility and realignment. 7/7 @sciencepo-udem.bsky.social @cevipof.bsky.social @edr-sciencespo.bsky.social

This stability, however, hides a shift: whereas radical voters once supported moderate candidates from their camp, since 2017, it is moderate voters who have increasingly backed radical candidates. 6/7

More importantly, the strength of the link between ideological self-placement and first-round vote choice has remained remarkably stable from Mitterrand’s 1988 election to Macron’s 2022 re-election. 5/7

That said, we do observe a decline in centrist identification in 2022, coupled with an increase in the proportion of respondents placing themselves on the far right. 4/7

Our analysis yields two main findings. First, the relative size of France’s ideological groups—far left, left, center, right, far right—has changed surprisingly little over the last 35 years. 3/7

Has this relationship weakened over time, as some suggest? To answer this question, we use data from seven post-election surveys covering all presidential elections between 1988 and 2022. 2/7