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petertl.bsky.social
Peter Thal Larsen
@petertl.bsky.social
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Global Editor, Reuters Breakingviews. Usual disclaimers apply. Signal: petertl.17
www.breakingviews.com
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petertl.bsky.social
Well that's one way to shed your "Dr. Doom" nickname.
www.ft.com/content/3af6...
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/3af620bb-6d5e-4281-879d-c3193e225803 Ditto for stock returns: when annual growth was 2 per cent for the last two decades, US equity returns were around double digits, well above those of other advanced economies and emerging markets. If growth will be much higher this decade and in subsequent ones, such equity returns will be even higher. Price-earnings valuation ratios can remain elevated if faster earnings growth is driven by increased economic growth. Of course, temporary market corrections will occur and tech disruptions will lead to winners and losers. However, the now common view that the US stock market is in a massive bubble and bound to crash is incorrect over the medium term.  
November 25, 2025 at 9:16 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Feels like the truly contrarian move right now would be to open a hedge fund.
'Big Short' investor Burry launches newsletter after closing hedge fund Reuters News Nov 24 (Reuters) - "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry, who has expressed skepticism of the current AI boom, has launched a paid newsletter on Substack, with a focus on stocks, market and economic trends, days after shutting down his hedge fund. Burry, who shot to fame for betting against the U.S. housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, is widely watched for his comments on markets and the economy. His bets have long been dissected by traders for clues on looming bubbles and signs of market froth. "I am not retired," Burry wrote on Substack, adding that the blog titled Cassandra Unchained had his "full attention."
November 24, 2025 at 1:08 PM
petertl.bsky.social
To fail in one audacious takeover of a mining rival may be regarded as a misfortune. To fail a second time in 18 months looks like you’re not very good at dealmaking. www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
Commentary Breakingviews BHP's new Anglo fail is dud swan song for CEO By Karen Kwok and George Hay November 24, 2025 2:16 AM GMT • Updated 3 hours ago
November 24, 2025 at 7:52 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Strong traces of hopium detected here.
Any deal will face questions over competition and media plurality, given it would further consolidate ownership of Britain's national newspapers under a single proprietor. Officials have already subjected the battle for the Telegraph to months of scrutiny, contributing to a two-year leadership vacuum at the title. The hope among people close to the talks is that ministers will see value in ending the uncertainty and restoring a stable owner to one of the country's most influential newspapers.
November 22, 2025 at 9:29 AM
petertl.bsky.social
People like to compare Japan’s Prime Minister to Margaret Thatcher, but this approach is more reminiscent of Liz Truss.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Japan's cabinet approves lavish stimulus as markets fret over Takaichi's fiscal policy November 21, 5:26 AM • Updated 1 hour ago By Makiko Yamazaki
November 21, 2025 at 7:40 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Another Epstein-related vacancy
Larry Summers resigns from OpenAI board after Epstein emails, Axios reports Reuters News Adds background throughout Nov 19 (Reuters) - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has resigned from the OpenAI board, Axios reported on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump ordered the Justice Department to investigate his and other prominent Democrats' ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. OpenAI and representatives for Summers did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
November 19, 2025 at 12:21 PM
petertl.bsky.social
New episode of THE BIG VIEW 🎙️🎧: For several years I've watched as Aimee Donnellan, associate editor at @breakingviews.reuters.com, researched and wrote a book about the rise of weight-loss drugs. As "Off the Scales" hits the shelves, we talked about their impact. open.spotify.com/episode/7plx...
November 18, 2025 at 9:59 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Just signed off on the latest edition of The Week in Breakingviews, my roundup of all the most interesting insights from the @breakingviews.reuters.com team. To get it free in your inbox every Saturday morning, sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...
The Week in Breakingviews Insights from Reuters global financial commentary team   By Peter Thal Larsen, Global Editor Welcome back! This week, Breakingviews celebrated its 25th anniversary, prompting us to look back at the last quarter-century. Even setting aside the clear parallels with the stock market bubble which peaked shortly before we published our first columns, some big themes stand out. As always, email me with any suggestions. If someone forwarded you this newsletter, sign up here to receive it free in your inbox every Saturday.
November 14, 2025 at 6:58 PM
petertl.bsky.social
Every day I look at my screen and think "that's it, that's the quote that sums up this mad era." And then the next day there's another one.
www.ft.com/content/cec3...
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/cec33db6-7842-4bf5-80d5-677007bcab3e Burry told investors that he would “liquidate the funds and return capital — but for a small audit/tax holdback — by year’s end”, according to two people with direct knowledge of a letter he sent to investors. “My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets,” said the letter, which was dated October 27.
November 14, 2025 at 1:23 PM
petertl.bsky.social
Interesting pair of stories on the @reuters.com homepage today.
US hires 50,000 federal workers under Trump, boosting immigration roles Verizon to cut about 15,000 jobs as new CEO restructures, source says By David Shepardson and Harshita Mary Varghese November 14, 202512:35 AM GMTUpdated 8 hours ago Verizon's shares rise 1.5% on layoff news CEO Dan Schulman aims for cost transformation and restructuring
November 14, 2025 at 11:42 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Is there any reason why digital dollarisation will be any more successful than the analogue version? Felix Martin reckons not.
Bar chart showing the decline in dollar-based bank deposits 2000-2018
November 14, 2025 at 9:34 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Fascinating read on DeepMind's Demis Hassibis by @jldastin.bsky.social. I suspect history will be less harsh on him than the stock promoters and con men currently getting all the AI attention.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Google’s top AI executive seeks the profound over profits and the “prosaic” Demis Hassabis has spent much of the past decade trying to unlock the secrets of the universe through artificial intelligence. Reuters examines how Alphabet's top AI executive favored high-minded concepts over short-term business opportunities and, at times, Google's bottom line. By Jeffrey Dastin
November 14, 2025 at 8:09 AM
petertl.bsky.social
For years, it was a common occurrence: Dutch bandits would drive to Germany and in the dead of night blow up ATMs, grab cash and speed back home on the Autobahn. Now, a crackdown is bearing fruit.
www.reuters.com/business/fin...
German crackdown pushes Dutch ATM bandits towards Austria
November 13, 2025 at 8:23 AM
petertl.bsky.social
New episode of THE BIG VIEW 🎧🎙️: I talked to Branko Milanovic, the economist and expert on inequality, about his new book "The Great Global Transformation". A great conversation about the politics of growth, income distribution, and global commerce. Please tune in!
open.spotify.com/episode/7jW9...
Branko Milanovic
November 11, 2025 at 11:18 AM
petertl.bsky.social
The SLAPP to end all SLAPPs. Well done to everyone involved.
Trump's lawyers demand BBC retract 'Panorama' documentary or face lawsuit - Reuters News 10 Nov 2025 15:40:29BRITAIN-BBC/DAVIE-LAWSUIT (URGENT) By Jack Queen Nov 10 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's lawyers said that BBC must retract the "Panorama" documentary by November 14 or face a lawsuit for "no less" than 1 billion dollars, according to a letter sent on Sunday.
November 10, 2025 at 3:57 PM
petertl.bsky.social
Pretty impressive that the FTC managed to wave through Pfizer’s offer for Metsera AND torpedo Novo Nordisk’s counterbid, all during a government shutdown. Who says US bureaucrats can’t move quickly?

www.reuters.com/business/hea...
Metsera, in its Friday statement, said Novo's proposal presented "unacceptably high legal and regulatory risks" compared to the proposed merger with Pfizer, citing a call from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission to discuss the risks of a transaction with Novo. The regulator sent a letter earlier this week to Novo and Metsera, saying their proposed deal ran the risk of violating U.S. antitrust laws.
November 8, 2025 at 10:58 AM
petertl.bsky.social
You’ve heard from all the people who think the AI boom is like the dotcom bubble. Now meet the guy who argues the AI boom is actually crazier.
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Throughout the late 1990s Fred Hickey, the editor of The High-Tech Strategist, was relentlessly critical of the wild market excesses of the time. So-called “bubbleheads” responded by leaving vile messages on his voicemail. However, he developed a cult following among bearish investors. Although Hickey was eventually vindicated, he turned out to be wrong in one respect. In December 1999 he wrote: “The lunacy of tech stock valuations is beyond description ... I’m certain I’ll never see it again in my lifetime.” Hickey still publishes his monthly investment newsletter. He finds much to remind him about the earlier dotcom mania. Except this time, he believes the market is even crazier.
November 8, 2025 at 8:23 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Just heard about this slick-looking scam website targeting people applying for the new UK Electronic Travel Authorisation. Charges unfortunate users £97 (actual cost is £16) and extracts all their personal details including date of birth, address, photo, passport details etc.
Scam website: Apply for an ETA to come to the UK
November 7, 2025 at 9:29 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Rare sighting of an AI-related profit warning. Property website Rightmove says it's investing more in artificial intelligence: shares crash 25%.
www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks...
Nov 7 (Reuters) - Rightmove (RMV.L), opens new tab on Friday forecast slower profit growth in 2026, weighed down by investments it expects to make, primarily in artificial intelligence, as it seeks to bolster operations in the long term. Shares of Britain's biggest property portal fell 25% in early trading. "AI is now becoming absolutely central to how we run our business and plan for the future," CEO Johan Svanstrom said in a statement, adding that for 2026 to 2028, the company will accelerate investment to support double-digit growth in profit.
November 7, 2025 at 8:27 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Every day I look at my screen and think "that's it, that's the quote that sums up this mad era." And then the next day there's another one.
www.axios.com/2025/11/06/o...
Reality check: AI evangelists on Wall Street are also skeptical that standard metrics, such as valuations, are the best way to analyze these companies. "I don't pay attention to valuations that much," Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers, tells Axios, adding that he sees the metric as subjective.
November 6, 2025 at 5:03 PM
petertl.bsky.social
This company has a stock market valuation of $1.6 trillion. More jaw-dropping reporting by @jeffhorwitz.bsky.social.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Meta is earning a fortune on a deluge of fraudulent ads, documents show Meta projected 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads for scams and banned goods, documents seen by Reuters show. And the social media giant internally estimates that its platforms show users 15 billion scam ads a day. Among its responses to suspected rogue marketers: charging them a premium for ads – and issuing reports on ’Scammiest Scammers.’
November 6, 2025 at 11:31 AM
petertl.bsky.social
Hang on, aren’t you supposed to ask for a government backstop AFTER the bubble bursts?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
In addition to OpenAl's deals with chipmakers, the ChatGPT maker is also eying a broad mix of financing vehicles to fund its infrastructure efforts. Friar said OpenAl is "looking for an ecosystem of banks [and] private equity" to support its ambitious plans. She also hinted at a role for the US government to "backstop, the guarantee that allows the financing to happen," but did not elaborate on how this would work. Asked for clarification, an OpenAl spokesperson said Friar was speaking in the context of the broader Al industry. There are currently no immediate plans about OpenAl pursuing a federal backstop, the spokesperson said.
November 5, 2025 at 9:18 PM
petertl.bsky.social
Good morning to everyone except the local estate agent who put these words on a website.
Flow. Being completely involved. Time well spent. Every moment following inevitably from the previous one. Like playing jazz. Like living in a beautifully planned home.
November 2, 2025 at 11:07 AM
petertl.bsky.social
The latest edition of The Week in Breakingviews just landed in subscribers’ inboxes. If you’re not already receiving it, sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...
The Week in Breakingviews Insights from Reuters global financial commentary team   By Peter Thal Larsen, Global Editor Welcome back! Donald Trump rated his summit with Xi Jinping a “12 out of 10”. We gave it a lower score. The confab produced an uneasy truce which did not resolve any of the tensions between the world’s two largest economies. What are we missing? Email me with your thoughts. If someone forwarded you this newsletter, sign up here to receive it every Saturday. Opening line “Xi Jinping bought peace for a handful of beans.” Five things I learned from Breakingviews this week Companies will spend $2 trillion on enterprise software by 2029, but only $76 billion on AI. (Read on Reuters.com) Capital spending by telecom operators is set to decline by 2% a year for the next three years. Switzerland’s public debt is just 25% of GDP; private lending is 10 times that figure. U.S. companies with the highest exposure to 18- to 24-year-olds have the worst-performing stocks. Japanese rice prices were up 63% year-on-year in September. (Read on Reuters.com)
November 1, 2025 at 12:08 PM
petertl.bsky.social
Every London IPO is a hostage to fortune for the UK government. Here's business secretary Peter Kyle hailing the listing of a £1.2 billion purveyor of tomatoes and canned tuna as "a great British success story" and a boost for Britain's industrial strategy....
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Princes Group unveils London listing in major vote of confidence in UK economy Princes Group - leading manufacturer known for producing tinned tuna and Napolina tomatoes - lists on London Stock Exchange in major vote of confidence in UK’s capital markets. The IPO will help drive growth and investment in key sectors – reflecting the Government’s modern Industrial Strategy and Plan for Change. Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle calls Princes Group a ‘Great British success story’ and calls for more firms to follow in their footsteps. In a major vote of confidence in UK capital markets, Princes Group has listed today on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) in a move that cements the City’s position as a leading hub for global capital. Today (Friday 31 October), Business Secretary Peter Kyle joined Princes Group at the LSE for its market debut, where he delivered a speech and championed the long-established company as a “great British success story”. The listing on the LSE of the manufacturer of some of Britain’s best loved brands is a boost for the government’s modern Industrial Strategy and will help leverage further investment into the UK, in particular the food and drink and advanced manufacturing sectors.
October 31, 2025 at 7:51 AM