nobody
@petbugs13.bsky.social
sports, satire, stats, shipping, storms, socialism, and a smidgen of smarm.
nothing gets serious until the third round
nothing gets serious until the third round
playoff probabilities. not sure we're going to have to have that argument over Canada's team in the playoffs this year...
December 2, 2025 at 3:37 PM
playoff probabilities. not sure we're going to have to have that argument over Canada's team in the playoffs this year...
NHL points forecasts over the last two weeks. Caps have flatlined it.
December 2, 2025 at 3:36 PM
NHL points forecasts over the last two weeks. Caps have flatlined it.
today we look in on the Isles hosting the Bolts. NYI still underwater at evens but have definitely been playing better of late. that powerplay is horrendous, though. meanwhile, Tampa comes in rested and has been dominant at 5v5. rest of their game is basically NHL average, but that's enough.
December 2, 2025 at 3:32 PM
today we look in on the Isles hosting the Bolts. NYI still underwater at evens but have definitely been playing better of late. that powerplay is horrendous, though. meanwhile, Tampa comes in rested and has been dominant at 5v5. rest of their game is basically NHL average, but that's enough.
ten games in the NHL today and somehow the Avs didn't make it over the 0.700 threshold to be considered a high value pick. but take it from me, that's a high value pick.
December 2, 2025 at 3:22 PM
ten games in the NHL today and somehow the Avs didn't make it over the 0.700 threshold to be considered a high value pick. but take it from me, that's a high value pick.
well, the model stayed true to form. got the Sharks wrong but nailed that BJ victory.
December 2, 2025 at 3:19 PM
well, the model stayed true to form. got the Sharks wrong but nailed that BJ victory.
playoff probabilities on Dec. 1. let's check back in on these at the end of the season.
December 1, 2025 at 8:50 PM
playoff probabilities on Dec. 1. let's check back in on these at the end of the season.
NHL points projections over last 14 days. Utah coming back down to earth.
December 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
NHL points projections over last 14 days. Utah coming back down to earth.
the Trump Index. i would add a tracker for billionaires pardoned by the chart doesn't go that high.
December 1, 2025 at 7:32 PM
the Trump Index. i would add a tracker for billionaires pardoned by the chart doesn't go that high.
today's spotlight on Buffalo hosting the Jets. Sabres may be the most mediocre team in the NHL at the moment, while Winnipeg has had a brutal start to the season at 5v5, but may be finding their game of late.
December 1, 2025 at 4:53 PM
today's spotlight on Buffalo hosting the Jets. Sabres may be the most mediocre team in the NHL at the moment, while Winnipeg has had a brutal start to the season at 5v5, but may be finding their game of late.
but back to today's five-game NHL schedule, where once again the Sharks get faded and we'll see if the model really does have the BJs dialed in, picking them over the Devils.
December 1, 2025 at 3:40 PM
but back to today's five-game NHL schedule, where once again the Sharks get faded and we'll see if the model really does have the BJs dialed in, picking them over the Devils.
at the team level, model has the BJs nailed but has consistently underestimated the Sharks, which is what you're going to get when you're not modeling at the roster level. Bruins also not getting any respect, but then they never should so we'll allow it.
December 1, 2025 at 3:38 PM
at the team level, model has the BJs nailed but has consistently underestimated the Sharks, which is what you're going to get when you're not modeling at the roster level. Bruins also not getting any respect, but then they never should so we'll allow it.
starting to get a little more slope here, so model confidence is getting a bit more reliable. but still much too low.
December 1, 2025 at 3:35 PM
starting to get a little more slope here, so model confidence is getting a bit more reliable. but still much too low.
the long, slow descent into the abyss...
December 1, 2025 at 3:33 PM
the long, slow descent into the abyss...
well, we are over the 400 game mark so time for another check on how we're doing so far. and it's not great, Bob.
might be worst accuracy i've seen at any point since we started this thing. though to be fair, home teams are winning at about 2 percentage points lower than normal this year.
might be worst accuracy i've seen at any point since we started this thing. though to be fair, home teams are winning at about 2 percentage points lower than normal this year.
December 1, 2025 at 3:32 PM
well, we are over the 400 game mark so time for another check on how we're doing so far. and it's not great, Bob.
might be worst accuracy i've seen at any point since we started this thing. though to be fair, home teams are winning at about 2 percentage points lower than normal this year.
might be worst accuracy i've seen at any point since we started this thing. though to be fair, home teams are winning at about 2 percentage points lower than normal this year.
well, the model did have the Ducks as the least likely to win of the four picks, so there's that i guess
December 1, 2025 at 3:29 PM
well, the model did have the Ducks as the least likely to win of the four picks, so there's that i guess
ginger pumpkin soup with habanero mango hot sauce and grilled ham and gruyere
December 1, 2025 at 3:21 AM
ginger pumpkin soup with habanero mango hot sauce and grilled ham and gruyere
and since we're starting to think playoff chances now that we're over a quarter of the way into the season, here's today's playoff probabilities
November 30, 2025 at 3:25 PM
and since we're starting to think playoff chances now that we're over a quarter of the way into the season, here's today's playoff probabilities
NHL points projections over the last two weeks. Tampa pulling away in the Atlantic.
November 30, 2025 at 3:20 PM
NHL points projections over the last two weeks. Tampa pulling away in the Atlantic.
today's look under the hood is the Dallas pick at home over the Sens. Stars playing well of late and have dragged 5v5 xG differential into positive territory, it's the chance generation on the powerplay that stands out. Ottawa good at evens but awful powerplay. also very poor goal prevention.
November 30, 2025 at 3:15 PM
today's look under the hood is the Dallas pick at home over the Sens. Stars playing well of late and have dragged 5v5 xG differential into positive territory, it's the chance generation on the powerplay that stands out. Ottawa good at evens but awful powerplay. also very poor goal prevention.
four NHL games today. four "safe" picks.
November 30, 2025 at 3:10 PM
four NHL games today. four "safe" picks.
model continues to take it on the chin. two years in a row where it fell apart in November...
November 30, 2025 at 3:08 PM
model continues to take it on the chin. two years in a row where it fell apart in November...
NHL points forecasts over last two weeks. after starting the season with no respect from the model, Dallas back near the top.
November 29, 2025 at 3:07 PM
NHL points forecasts over last two weeks. after starting the season with no respect from the model, Dallas back near the top.
model decided to spotlight latest installment of the Dubas Derby today. both teams playing tired, but Leafs have absolutely nothing going for them except a very good goal conversion. Pens with great special teams and good goal prevention.
November 29, 2025 at 2:37 PM
model decided to spotlight latest installment of the Dubas Derby today. both teams playing tired, but Leafs have absolutely nothing going for them except a very good goal conversion. Pens with great special teams and good goal prevention.
eleven more games in the NHL today. going to be a lot of tired teams.
November 29, 2025 at 2:31 PM
eleven more games in the NHL today. going to be a lot of tired teams.
well, at least the model beat the odds a couple of times. small victories.
November 29, 2025 at 2:29 PM
well, at least the model beat the odds a couple of times. small victories.