All eyes turn to Dec 16. The combined Oct-Nov report will show whether Sept’s rebound marks stability or just a pause in a cooling labour market. With structural shifts, lower job-creation needs, and fading momentum, the coming data may define the narrative heading into 2026

The Fed cut rates in Sept and Oct, but the mixed signals now complicate December. Hawks can point to stronger-than-expected payrolls; doves to a four-year-high 4.4% unemployment rate. With patchy data and rising risk, Powell’s “drive in a fog, slow down” analogy may guide the committee

Structural forces are reshaping demand. AI is displacing routine office roles, immigration tightening is holding back labour supply, and trade uncertainty is chilling small-business hiring. Earlier revisions erased 911k jobs from the prior year, hinting the slowdown has been deeper than thought

The shutdown’s fallout remains severe: the full October report will never be published because the household survey couldn’t be completed. October and November payrolls will instead arrive together on Dec 16—one week after the Fed meets, leaving policymakers flying with limited visibility

Wage growth cooled: average hourly earnings rose just $0.09 to $36.67, up 0.2% on the month and 3.8% over the year—softer than expected and easing labour-driven inflation pressure. The mix of rising unemployment and modest pay gains points to a labour market losing heat

Still, long-term unemployment has grown all year, and grads are feeling it: their jobless rate climbed to 2.8% from 2.3% a year ago. AI adoption is cutting entry-level white-collar roles, and economists now estimate the economy needs only 30–50k monthly jobs to keep up with population growth

Household data looked brighter: employment jumped +251k and the labour force surged +470k to a record 171.2m. Participation climbed to 62.4%. Full-time jobs rose a striking +673k while part-time fell –573k, hinting at a shift toward more stable work despite the uptick in joblessness

Revisions told a softer story: August was flipped from +22k to –4k, and July was trimmed to +72k. The job market’s momentum has faded through 2025. Healthcare remained the workhorse (+43k), food services added +37k, and social assistance kept expanding—but transportation shed 25k

It's a nickname, but a great one. Expect lots of commentary about the gilt/kilt spread in future

We don't do forecasts @sunite.me - and this isn't a crash so far just a bit of a wobble that skims off some of the froth. These are the weekly S&P 500 returns to yesterday's close, there's still a lot of green

It’s not just about market value. Cambodia now keeps gold in China, transacting in renminbi instead of dollars. This trend reveals how gold, geopolitics, and financial influence increasingly overlap as countries respond to new global risks and shifting alliances

Other countries like Poland and Turkey are boosting their central bank vaults, but China—the world’s largest official gold buyer—shifts the market most, through back channels, “missing” gold bars, and unexplained surges in import data that confuse and frustrate traders

Gold has jumped from around 10% to over a quarter of official reserves outside the US in just a decade, driven by Chinese accumulation and escalating distrust of the dollar system. This represents a major step in the global shift away from traditional reserve currencies

Globally, central banks are keeping their gold buys quiet: now only about a third of purchases are reported, versus 90% just four years ago. With fears of US pushback, China and others are using opaque import channels, further blurring the global bullion landscape

The People’s Bank of China is only part of the story. Sovereign wealth funds, regional banks, and even entities linked to the military are involved in the gold rush. Much of their buying happens off the radar, making China’s true gold position nearly impossible to track

China’s real gold bullion accumulation isn’t just about bolstering reserves—it’s part of a wider, strategic effort to reduce its reliance on the US dollar altogether. Buying outside official channels gives Beijing secrecy and flexibility as it looks for alternatives

Despite the UK-backed rating, Scotland will probably pay higher yields than UK gilts due to a smaller, less liquid market. Independence risks and a fast-aging population are long-term issues for the credit outlook. For now, Westminster’s support anchors Scotland’s rating

Scotland can borrow up to £472mn for 2025-26, a fraction of its total budget and capped by UK rules. Most borrowing still comes via the National Loans Fund—on UK terms. “Kilts” issuance is a symbolic step, raising Scotland’s profile, but yields will likely be above gilts

Both S&P and Moody’s credit Scotland’s “exceptional liquidity” and low debt—enabled by UK Treasury backing and strict Westminster borrowing caps. The Scottish rating matches the UK, but fiscal dependence is key. Moves toward independence would likely mean a downgrade