Peak Trading Research
@peaktrading.bsky.social
Quantitative commodity research.
🌾 #Ags this week: Busy week! WASDE report Tuesday, NFP Jobs Wednesday, and CPI data Friday. 📊 The macro mood improved on Friday, with SPX +2.0%. 📈 Argentina should get some needed rains. ☔ U.S. export demand softened last week. Seasonals are bullish, especially for OilseedS and Softs.
February 8, 2026 at 6:13 AM
🌾 #Ags this week: Busy week! WASDE report Tuesday, NFP Jobs Wednesday, and CPI data Friday. 📊 The macro mood improved on Friday, with SPX +2.0%. 📈 Argentina should get some needed rains. ☔ U.S. export demand softened last week. Seasonals are bullish, especially for OilseedS and Softs.
Back and Forth: Non-Commercial speculators sold Sugar 📉 during last week's Tuesday-to-Tuesday COT report window but have bought a lot of Soybeans 🌱 since last Tuesday's COT data cutoff. 📈
February 7, 2026 at 6:11 AM
Back and Forth: Non-Commercial speculators sold Sugar 📉 during last week's Tuesday-to-Tuesday COT report window but have bought a lot of Soybeans 🌱 since last Tuesday's COT data cutoff. 📈
#Ags this week: Silver dropped -31% on Friday, a bearish signal for real assets and #commodity market appetite. We'll see #NFP jobs data on Friday. Tyson reports earnings on Monday, ADM on Tuesday, and Bunge on Wednesday.
February 1, 2026 at 5:48 AM
#Ags this week: Silver dropped -31% on Friday, a bearish signal for real assets and #commodity market appetite. We'll see #NFP jobs data on Friday. Tyson reports earnings on Monday, ADM on Tuesday, and Bunge on Wednesday.
BIG month for energy markets! ⛽
Nat Gas +49.5%, Heating Oil +23.6%, Gasoline +13.0%.
Cold temps, Iran escalations, bullish seasonals, and fund short covering. 📈
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +8.0%. 👏🏻
Nat Gas +49.5%, Heating Oil +23.6%, Gasoline +13.0%.
Cold temps, Iran escalations, bullish seasonals, and fund short covering. 📈
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +8.0%. 👏🏻
January 31, 2026 at 4:36 PM
BIG month for energy markets! ⛽
Nat Gas +49.5%, Heating Oil +23.6%, Gasoline +13.0%.
Cold temps, Iran escalations, bullish seasonals, and fund short covering. 📈
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +8.0%. 👏🏻
Nat Gas +49.5%, Heating Oil +23.6%, Gasoline +13.0%.
Cold temps, Iran escalations, bullish seasonals, and fund short covering. 📈
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +8.0%. 👏🏻
Buy the dip? 📈 Copper dropped -4.5% on Friday, but history says dips into February have been buying opportunities.
Over the past 12 years, Copper has risen 12 out of 12 times (100%) during the 12 trading sessions starting Monday’s close.
February seasonals are bullish for Copper. 🏆
Over the past 12 years, Copper has risen 12 out of 12 times (100%) during the 12 trading sessions starting Monday’s close.
February seasonals are bullish for Copper. 🏆
January 31, 2026 at 3:49 PM
Buy the dip? 📈 Copper dropped -4.5% on Friday, but history says dips into February have been buying opportunities.
Over the past 12 years, Copper has risen 12 out of 12 times (100%) during the 12 trading sessions starting Monday’s close.
February seasonals are bullish for Copper. 🏆
Over the past 12 years, Copper has risen 12 out of 12 times (100%) during the 12 trading sessions starting Monday’s close.
February seasonals are bullish for Copper. 🏆
Fund Firepower! 💥 Non-Commercial traders bought +132k contracts (+4.4B) of #agriculture futures last week, the largest inflows since November. 📈 The drivers: the bullish macro environment, dry Argentina forecasts, strong U.S. exports, cold weather, and bullish seasonals. 🌾
January 31, 2026 at 5:16 AM
Fund Firepower! 💥 Non-Commercial traders bought +132k contracts (+4.4B) of #agriculture futures last week, the largest inflows since November. 📈 The drivers: the bullish macro environment, dry Argentina forecasts, strong U.S. exports, cold weather, and bullish seasonals. 🌾
Agriculture markets priced in Silver are crashing out. 📉 Soybeans, Sugar, and Wheat are now trading below their 2020 COVID washout lows when priced in Silver. Relative value extremes tend to mean-revert. Bullish ag, or bearish Silver?
January 28, 2026 at 9:16 AM
Agriculture markets priced in Silver are crashing out. 📉 Soybeans, Sugar, and Wheat are now trading below their 2020 COVID washout lows when priced in Silver. Relative value extremes tend to mean-revert. Bullish ag, or bearish Silver?
Crude Oil seasonals have WORKED in 2026 - Brent is up +12.7%. Will prices keep sailing higher? History says yes. Today we enter the most seasonally bullish 30-day window of the year. 🛢️ 📈
January 28, 2026 at 5:36 AM
Crude Oil seasonals have WORKED in 2026 - Brent is up +12.7%. Will prices keep sailing higher? History says yes. Today we enter the most seasonally bullish 30-day window of the year. 🛢️ 📈
Many #agriculture markets like Cocoa, Sugar, and Wheat are cheap & oversold. Funds are short, and prices remain depressed. If #hedgefunds continue to buy real assets and de-dollarize, these value-pick markets could see renewed buying interest. 📈
January 25, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Many #agriculture markets like Cocoa, Sugar, and Wheat are cheap & oversold. Funds are short, and prices remain depressed. If #hedgefunds continue to buy real assets and de-dollarize, these value-pick markets could see renewed buying interest. 📈
#Funds are BACK and BUYING: Non-Commercial hedge fund traders sold a small amount of #agriculture futures during the COT week but bought back exposure Wednesday - Friday due to strong U.S. #export demand stats and the strongly bullish #macro mood. 📈 Funds have buying firepower. 💪🏼
January 25, 2026 at 5:24 AM
#Funds are BACK and BUYING: Non-Commercial hedge fund traders sold a small amount of #agriculture futures during the COT week but bought back exposure Wednesday - Friday due to strong U.S. #export demand stats and the strongly bullish #macro mood. 📈 Funds have buying firepower. 💪🏼
🌱 #Ags this week: Investors are scrambling to own real assets, which includes #commodities. Wednesday's #Fed policy decision & Powell press conference will set the next direction for risk assets and the U.S. dollar. 🏛️ Brazil gets light rain this week; Argentina is dry. U.S. export demand is STRONG.
January 25, 2026 at 5:20 AM
🌱 #Ags this week: Investors are scrambling to own real assets, which includes #commodities. Wednesday's #Fed policy decision & Powell press conference will set the next direction for risk assets and the U.S. dollar. 🏛️ Brazil gets light rain this week; Argentina is dry. U.S. export demand is STRONG.
#Ethanol futures have risen in 11 of the past 12 years (92% of the time) from mid-January through late April. 🌽 ⛽ 📈
This trade begins on the first market close on or after Jan 17. 📅
Is it time for one of the world’s cheapest #commodity markets to trend higher? 💥
This trade begins on the first market close on or after Jan 17. 📅
Is it time for one of the world’s cheapest #commodity markets to trend higher? 💥
January 18, 2026 at 6:15 PM
#Ethanol futures have risen in 11 of the past 12 years (92% of the time) from mid-January through late April. 🌽 ⛽ 📈
This trade begins on the first market close on or after Jan 17. 📅
Is it time for one of the world’s cheapest #commodity markets to trend higher? 💥
This trade begins on the first market close on or after Jan 17. 📅
Is it time for one of the world’s cheapest #commodity markets to trend higher? 💥
🌾 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of a quiet data week. MLK market holiday tomorrow. Fed policy decision Jan 28th. 🏛️ Brazil gets rain this week; Argentina could turn drier into late January.
January 18, 2026 at 6:08 AM
🌾 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of a quiet data week. MLK market holiday tomorrow. Fed policy decision Jan 28th. 🏛️ Brazil gets rain this week; Argentina could turn drier into late January.
SHORTEST in 16 Months! 🌾 Hedge funds have big bearish bets across Grains, Oilseeds, and Softs #agriculture markets today. This means lots of buying firepower if there are any South American #production threats or bullish #macro catalysts in the coming weeks. ☀️📈
January 17, 2026 at 6:40 AM
SHORTEST in 16 Months! 🌾 Hedge funds have big bearish bets across Grains, Oilseeds, and Softs #agriculture markets today. This means lots of buying firepower if there are any South American #production threats or bullish #macro catalysts in the coming weeks. ☀️📈
#Ags this week: The #macro mood is bullish, with Crude Oil and stock markets higher to start 2026. 🛢️ Monday's #WASDE report is expected to cut Corn and Soy production. 🌽 S.A. weather looks favorable. ☔ Seasonals are bullish for Corn, Wheat, and Sugar, bearish for Milk. 🐄
January 11, 2026 at 6:05 AM
🌽 #Corn prices have risen in 9 of the past 10 years from mid-Jan into month-end. Chilly U.S. farmer selling + a growing Brazil/Argentina weather premium. 📈 🌤️
January 10, 2026 at 1:30 PM
🌽 #Corn prices have risen in 9 of the past 10 years from mid-Jan into month-end. Chilly U.S. farmer selling + a growing Brazil/Argentina weather premium. 📈 🌤️
Fund Firepower: Non-Commercial speculators were -$2.3B net short in dollars (-464k contracts) across the #agriculture complex as of last Tuesday's market close. 📊 Funds have buying power if there are some South American #weather threats or bullish #macro shifts in the coming weeks.
January 10, 2026 at 5:19 AM
Fund Firepower: Non-Commercial speculators were -$2.3B net short in dollars (-464k contracts) across the #agriculture complex as of last Tuesday's market close. 📊 Funds have buying power if there are some South American #weather threats or bullish #macro shifts in the coming weeks.
Real COT reports are BACK! 📊 Friday's report was the first 'normal' Tuesday-Friday report since September and showed small net outflows of only -18k contracts (-$600M). 📉 Flows were quiet through the end of last week, ahead of next week's USDA WASDE & Stocks report on Monday. 🌱💵
January 10, 2026 at 5:15 AM
Real COT reports are BACK! 📊 Friday's report was the first 'normal' Tuesday-Friday report since September and showed small net outflows of only -18k contracts (-$600M). 📉 Flows were quiet through the end of last week, ahead of next week's USDA WASDE & Stocks report on Monday. 🌱💵
🌱 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of U.S. Nonfarm payrolls data this Friday. The annual BCOM and GSCI rebalancing starts this Thursday and points to meaningful buying across key ag markets. 🌾 South American weather is non-threatening. Funds have been selling over the past four weeks.
January 4, 2026 at 7:21 AM
🌱 #Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed ahead of U.S. Nonfarm payrolls data this Friday. The annual BCOM and GSCI rebalancing starts this Thursday and points to meaningful buying across key ag markets. 🌾 South American weather is non-threatening. Funds have been selling over the past four weeks.
2025 was a broadly negative year for #agriculture markets. 🌾 📉
For #grain traders, it marked a third consecutive year of depressed prices across Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans.
On the bright side, livestock markets performed well last year and most softs have positive long-term returns. 🐂 📈
For #grain traders, it marked a third consecutive year of depressed prices across Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans.
On the bright side, livestock markets performed well last year and most softs have positive long-term returns. 🐂 📈
January 1, 2026 at 3:08 PM
2025 was a broadly negative year for #agriculture markets. 🌾 📉
For #grain traders, it marked a third consecutive year of depressed prices across Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans.
On the bright side, livestock markets performed well last year and most softs have positive long-term returns. 🐂 📈
For #grain traders, it marked a third consecutive year of depressed prices across Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans.
On the bright side, livestock markets performed well last year and most softs have positive long-term returns. 🐂 📈
That's a wrap! 🎉 2025 was a strong year for #commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +11.1%, its best year since 2022, led by large gains in metals markets. 📈 Silver was the star performer, up +141%. 🪩
January 1, 2026 at 7:32 AM
That's a wrap! 🎉 2025 was a strong year for #commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +11.1%, its best year since 2022, led by large gains in metals markets. 📈 Silver was the star performer, up +141%. 🪩
📈 ⛽ Will January bring higher energy prices? History says YES. It's a seasonally positive month when Crude Oil, Gasoline, Nat Gas, Heating Oil, and Ethanol tend to rally. Happy New Year, bulls. 🐂 🎉
December 31, 2025 at 5:48 AM
📈 ⛽ Will January bring higher energy prices? History says YES. It's a seasonally positive month when Crude Oil, Gasoline, Nat Gas, Heating Oil, and Ethanol tend to rally. Happy New Year, bulls. 🐂 🎉
🌾 #Ags this week: The macro mood improved last week (SPX +1.4%), putting some life into our #agriculture markets. It's another quiet data week with the New Year's holiday on Thursday. 🥂 South American weather is mixed (BRL wet, Argie dry). Seasonals are bullish. 📈
December 27, 2025 at 11:10 PM
🌾 #Ags this week: The macro mood improved last week (SPX +1.4%), putting some life into our #agriculture markets. It's another quiet data week with the New Year's holiday on Thursday. 🥂 South American weather is mixed (BRL wet, Argie dry). Seasonals are bullish. 📈
🎄 #Ags this week: The macro mood has stabilized following Thursday's chilly CPI inflation print. Funds have been selling agriculture futures. This Tuesday we'll finally catch up on COT reports, with data from Dec 16th. Brazil and Argentina see light rains this week. ☔ Seasonals are bullish. 📈
December 21, 2025 at 5:13 AM
🎄 #Ags this week: The macro mood has stabilized following Thursday's chilly CPI inflation print. Funds have been selling agriculture futures. This Tuesday we'll finally catch up on COT reports, with data from Dec 16th. Brazil and Argentina see light rains this week. ☔ Seasonals are bullish. 📈