Paul Heer
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Paul Heer
@pauljcheer.bsky.social
Former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia. Diplomatic historian.
Xi is not interested in a big deal, but he is interested in detente. Beijing's belief that time is on its side is not inconsistent with a desire for stability in US-China relations. Yes, China wants to constrain the US and not be constrained by it. But it also wants to avoid another cold war.
November 25, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I got my world-class liberal arts education at Loras College and the University of Iowa!
November 24, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Can someone explain how classifying the swastika as a "hate symbol" could "jeopardize U.S. troops’ combat readiness"?
November 20, 2025 at 7:30 PM
If only we could be confident that Trump is a lame duck. He has not accepted the premise that his term will end in 2028.
November 19, 2025 at 5:12 PM
(2/2) . . . or reject/deny those constraints (in favor of belief in an existential ideological threat and perpetual US primacy) and double down on a zero-sum competition to "win" the future.
November 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
November 17, 2025 at 3:21 AM
All the more reason to find a diplomatic off-ramp (instead of continuing to approach the Taiwan issue exclusively as a military deterrence problem). Washington needs to confront the holes in its "one China policy"--and the gap between it and Taipei's "one China, one Taiwan" policy.
November 6, 2025 at 6:59 PM
It may have something to do with publication, rather than a cartographer's initials. A quick Google search yielded this on a historical map from 1940: "Printed in England. S.H.B. Ltd. Regd. No. 4950."
November 6, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Is Trump himself looking for a "grand bargain"? My guess is that he too is focused on buying time and building leverage.
November 5, 2025 at 8:49 PM
That's what I thought: it's not really a relevant distinction.
November 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
"Note: A Cotton spokesperson later clarified that the senator meant a 'Pigpen-like mess,' alluding to the Peanuts character, and not a 'pigpen-like mess,' referring to a pen for pigs." Can someone explain that distinction?
November 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Just as an aside: All the talk about Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize is ridiculous fantasy. No matter how many nominations he gets, the only way Trump could ever win the prize is through blatant extortion of the Norwegian government or bribery and intimidation of the selection committee.
November 2, 2025 at 1:40 PM
I bet that the shutdown would last longer than the cease-fire in Gaza.
November 1, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Better yet, think historically! Examine how the world actually works; not how it's supposed to.

yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
Thinking Historically
A compelling and insightful argument for historical study as a way to understand and navigate the complex, often confusing world of decision-making   It see...
yalebooks.yale.edu
October 31, 2025 at 4:10 PM
(2/2) . . . given the strategic importance it evidently now assigns to Taiwan, and US political support for Taiwan's democracy. And as long as that is the case, Beijing will not retreat from threatening the use of force.
October 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
(1/2) This is a great summary of the current situation, partly because it accepts that all three parties have played a role in fueling tensions. But here's the key sticking point: Washington may no longer be willing to accept the possibility of peaceful unification . . .
October 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
The assertion that these boats are trafficking drugs is comparable to the assertion that Kilmar Abrego Garcia is a member of MS-13. Maybe it's true and maybe it's not. Only evidence and due process can tell. But the Trump Administration has offered neither and instead disregards their relevance.
October 24, 2025 at 10:40 PM