Øystein Hernæs
@oysteinhernaes.bsky.social
Economist-social scientist at the Frisch Centre frisch.uio.no, Oslo, Norway, & IZA. Doing empirical research on children, labor, pensions, health, politics, etc. Expressing personal opinions.
https://sites.google.com/site/oeysteinmhernaes/
https://sites.google.com/site/oeysteinmhernaes/
Very nice write-up (in Norwegian) by @terjeerikstad.bsky.social in @dagensnaeringsliv.bsky.social: www.dn.no/kommentar/fo... (paywalled)
62-åringer «minutt for minutt» (+)
Hvor viktig er økonomiske incentiver for om 62-åringer pensjonerer seg? Svaret er her, fire måneder etter ny reform.
www.dn.no
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Very nice write-up (in Norwegian) by @terjeerikstad.bsky.social in @dagensnaeringsliv.bsky.social: www.dn.no/kommentar/fo... (paywalled)
😀😀😀😀😀Joint work by Øystein Hernæs (@oysteinhernaes.bsky.social), Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum (@oraaum.bsky.social), Knut Røed og Tao Zhang, all at the Frisch Centre.
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
😀😀😀😀😀Joint work by Øystein Hernæs (@oysteinhernaes.bsky.social), Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum (@oraaum.bsky.social), Knut Røed og Tao Zhang, all at the Frisch Centre.
🔍 The reform made working more attractive.
Removing the earnings test increased the returns to work—and reduced early exit from the labor market.
Transparent data, pre-registered design, real-time results.
Read more: www.frisch.uio.no/om-oss/Nyhet...
Pre-registration: osf.io/yx7uf
Removing the earnings test increased the returns to work—and reduced early exit from the labor market.
Transparent data, pre-registered design, real-time results.
Read more: www.frisch.uio.no/om-oss/Nyhet...
Pre-registration: osf.io/yx7uf
Tydelig effekt av pensjonsreformen i offentlig sektor
- Frischsenteret
Fra januar 2025 ble AFP-ordningen i offentlig sektor lagt om: Nå kan ansatte født i 1963 eller senere ta ut pensjon fra 62 år uten at det påvirker hvor mye de kan jobbe. Tidligere ble AFP redusert der...
www.frisch.uio.no
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
🔍 The reform made working more attractive.
Removing the earnings test increased the returns to work—and reduced early exit from the labor market.
Transparent data, pre-registered design, real-time results.
Read more: www.frisch.uio.no/om-oss/Nyhet...
Pre-registration: osf.io/yx7uf
Removing the earnings test increased the returns to work—and reduced early exit from the labor market.
Transparent data, pre-registered design, real-time results.
Read more: www.frisch.uio.no/om-oss/Nyhet...
Pre-registration: osf.io/yx7uf
🧪 Method:
We align workers on "event time" (the month they turn 62), and compare changes in work and income from just before to just after. Pre-trends are flat. Placebo tests on older cohorts show no effect. ✅
We align workers on "event time" (the month they turn 62), and compare changes in work and income from just before to just after. Pre-trends are flat. Placebo tests on older cohorts show no effect. ✅
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
🧪 Method:
We align workers on "event time" (the month they turn 62), and compare changes in work and income from just before to just after. Pre-trends are flat. Placebo tests on older cohorts show no effect. ✅
We align workers on "event time" (the month they turn 62), and compare changes in work and income from just before to just after. Pre-trends are flat. Placebo tests on older cohorts show no effect. ✅
💰 Earnings also rose:
Real monthly wage income higher by 3,138 NOK (+6%) in the first month after age 62 for the reform cohort. No similar change for earlier cohorts.
See for yourself (blue line is reform cohort, which we can follow until event time = 1):
Real monthly wage income higher by 3,138 NOK (+6%) in the first month after age 62 for the reform cohort. No similar change for earlier cohorts.
See for yourself (blue line is reform cohort, which we can follow until event time = 1):
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
💰 Earnings also rose:
Real monthly wage income higher by 3,138 NOK (+6%) in the first month after age 62 for the reform cohort. No similar change for earlier cohorts.
See for yourself (blue line is reform cohort, which we can follow until event time = 1):
Real monthly wage income higher by 3,138 NOK (+6%) in the first month after age 62 for the reform cohort. No similar change for earlier cohorts.
See for yourself (blue line is reform cohort, which we can follow until event time = 1):
📈 The results are clear:
1963 cohort worked 1.75 hours more per week after turning 62 compared to what we’d expect without the reform. That’s +5.6% in average weekly hours.
1963 cohort worked 1.75 hours more per week after turning 62 compared to what we’d expect without the reform. That’s +5.6% in average weekly hours.
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
📈 The results are clear:
1963 cohort worked 1.75 hours more per week after turning 62 compared to what we’d expect without the reform. That’s +5.6% in average weekly hours.
1963 cohort worked 1.75 hours more per week after turning 62 compared to what we’d expect without the reform. That’s +5.6% in average weekly hours.
👥 We compare the first reform cohort (born January 1963) to the last pre-reform cohort (born January 1962). Same public sector jobs, same age—different rules.
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
👥 We compare the first reform cohort (born January 1963) to the last pre-reform cohort (born January 1962). Same public sector jobs, same age—different rules.
📊 What we wanted to know:
Does this change increase labor supply at age 62?
We used high-frequency payroll data and a pre-analysis plan registered before the outcome data were released.
Does this change increase labor supply at age 62?
We used high-frequency payroll data and a pre-analysis plan registered before the outcome data were released.
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
📊 What we wanted to know:
Does this change increase labor supply at age 62?
We used high-frequency payroll data and a pre-analysis plan registered before the outcome data were released.
Does this change increase labor supply at age 62?
We used high-frequency payroll data and a pre-analysis plan registered before the outcome data were released.
📅 Reform applies to public-sector employees born in 1963 or later. AFP is now decoupled from labor earnings—workers can draw the full pension from 62, even if they stay in work full- or part-time.
May 15, 2025 at 12:52 PM
📅 Reform applies to public-sector employees born in 1963 or later. AFP is now decoupled from labor earnings—workers can draw the full pension from 62, even if they stay in work full- or part-time.
lucymsall.github.io
March 24, 2025 at 3:54 PM
The website still says December 2
December 2, 2024 at 3:33 PM
The website still says December 2
Reposted by Øystein Hernæs
119/ A starter pack of Economists and more in Norway from @oeysteinhernaes.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/oeys...
bsky.app/profile/oeys...
Made a starter pack on Economists (and related) in Norway: go.bsky.app/SaEqpCs
Let me know if you want to be added to the list.
Inspired by @jansauermann.bsky.social and @hhsievertsen.bsky.social with the Swedish and Danish lists and the thread by @ginapieters.bsky.social
#EconSky 📉📈
Let me know if you want to be added to the list.
Inspired by @jansauermann.bsky.social and @hhsievertsen.bsky.social with the Swedish and Danish lists and the thread by @ginapieters.bsky.social
#EconSky 📉📈
November 13, 2024 at 12:53 AM
119/ A starter pack of Economists and more in Norway from @oeysteinhernaes.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/oeys...
bsky.app/profile/oeys...
Many applied economists would have learned it from Mostly harmless (Angrist & Pischke), section 3.2.3 Bad control. There, they refer to Griliches and Mason (1972), Chamberlain (1977, 1978), Rosenbaum (1984).
October 18, 2023 at 7:40 AM
Many applied economists would have learned it from Mostly harmless (Angrist & Pischke), section 3.2.3 Bad control. There, they refer to Griliches and Mason (1972), Chamberlain (1977, 1978), Rosenbaum (1984).