Overshot the Carrying Capacity
@overshot.bsky.social
Opinionated cartoons and views on how we are doing, backed with evidence, but happy to learn more.
Unfortunately my limited talent to draw isn't matching the ideas in my head. I seem to be using this account for commentary.
Unfortunately my limited talent to draw isn't matching the ideas in my head. I seem to be using this account for commentary.
Maybe we should use a 20 year running average, to be sure.
November 14, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Maybe we should use a 20 year running average, to be sure.
Always good to hear the professionals saying something similar...
bsky.app/profile/haus...
bsky.app/profile/haus...
These six studies show a central estimate of warming from 2.4C to 2.9C, with large climate system uncertainties due to climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks; its possible that current policy warming could be as high as 4C if we roll 6s on the proverbial climate dice.
November 14, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Always good to hear the professionals saying something similar...
bsky.app/profile/haus...
bsky.app/profile/haus...
I keep reading things like "EU plans are not 1.5C compatible". I wonder if there is a metric/ssp to judge whether current policies are "civilization in 2200 compatible" or "great great grandchildren compatible", or "doomed compatible". I guess rockstrom's "corridor of life" points in that direction.
November 14, 2025 at 3:32 PM
I keep reading things like "EU plans are not 1.5C compatible". I wonder if there is a metric/ssp to judge whether current policies are "civilization in 2200 compatible" or "great great grandchildren compatible", or "doomed compatible". I guess rockstrom's "corridor of life" points in that direction.
This window is shutting hard:
bsky.app/profile/edha...
bsky.app/profile/edha...
How much carbon budget do we have left if we want to stay below 1.5˚C?
Just 2 more years at current rates. It is essentially impossible to avoid global temperature rise exceeding 1.5˚C.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
Just 2 more years at current rates. It is essentially impossible to avoid global temperature rise exceeding 1.5˚C.
climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-shrink...
November 14, 2025 at 3:20 PM
This window is shutting hard:
bsky.app/profile/edha...
bsky.app/profile/edha...
Yeah. If you know how bad things are (climate, biosphere) then there is all this bargaining / hypocrisy / judgement. Much simpler to be an (wilfully? clueless / denialist ) ars*hole. You can do whatever you want. Even better if you are a techno utopian. You get to be a saviour too.
November 14, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Yeah. If you know how bad things are (climate, biosphere) then there is all this bargaining / hypocrisy / judgement. Much simpler to be an (wilfully? clueless / denialist ) ars*hole. You can do whatever you want. Even better if you are a techno utopian. You get to be a saviour too.
That chart design seems perfectly clear.
I think that approach could catch on.
I think that approach could catch on.
November 14, 2025 at 10:56 AM
That chart design seems perfectly clear.
I think that approach could catch on.
I think that approach could catch on.
Git blaime
November 13, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Git blaime
... and there is the ominous lurking possibility that climate sensitivity is way worse too, bringing those upper temperatures back from the horizon.
November 13, 2025 at 2:56 PM
... and there is the ominous lurking possibility that climate sensitivity is way worse too, bringing those upper temperatures back from the horizon.
Wow. Even China would need months of additional Solar capacity to meet that demand increase.
November 13, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Wow. Even China would need months of additional Solar capacity to meet that demand increase.
The Wedge of Opportunity is closing at an accelerating pace.
November 13, 2025 at 1:27 PM
The Wedge of Opportunity is closing at an accelerating pace.
At least nobody is suggesting using a 20 year running average.
November 13, 2025 at 10:41 AM
At least nobody is suggesting using a 20 year running average.
I thought the sun cycle was under 0.1C variation over the 11 year cycle.
November 11, 2025 at 8:40 PM
I thought the sun cycle was under 0.1C variation over the 11 year cycle.
1.75C plateau in 2035 to keep the run going.
November 11, 2025 at 6:56 PM
1.75C plateau in 2035 to keep the run going.
Sure, but at what cost?
/Sarcasm
/Sarcasm
November 11, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Sure, but at what cost?
/Sarcasm
/Sarcasm
The Northern Hemisphere is looking like it will stay anomalously hot next week, and possibly bothering further records.
bsky.app/profile/chri...
bsky.app/profile/chri...
7-day forecast 18.11.2025
The incredible will intensify
The Northern Hemisphere will be on 🔥🔥
USA, North Canada, N #Africa, SE Europe, Caspian Sea area , NW China , West and central Russia will lead the charge
No heat in The Southern Hemisphere
Deep 🥶🥶
Argentina
Australia
#ClimateCrisis
The incredible will intensify
The Northern Hemisphere will be on 🔥🔥
USA, North Canada, N #Africa, SE Europe, Caspian Sea area , NW China , West and central Russia will lead the charge
No heat in The Southern Hemisphere
Deep 🥶🥶
Argentina
Australia
#ClimateCrisis
November 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM
The Northern Hemisphere is looking like it will stay anomalously hot next week, and possibly bothering further records.
bsky.app/profile/chri...
bsky.app/profile/chri...
November 11, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Thoughts? ... This data is very much in date
bsky.app/profile/will...
bsky.app/profile/will...
Our 2025 State of the Climate Report was just published in BioScience by scientists from around the world including @michaelemann.bsky.social @petergleick.bsky.social This video (2 minutes) shows the key highlights: doi.org/10.1093/bios...
November 10, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Thoughts? ... This data is very much in date
bsky.app/profile/will...
bsky.app/profile/will...
Can I make up any convenient BS if I tell people that I used AI to write it?
November 10, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Can I make up any convenient BS if I tell people that I used AI to write it?
November 9, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Given that a public figure isn't laughed out of office, for claiming a 1500% drop in prices ... the mathematical ignorance is strong within the public.
November 8, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Given that a public figure isn't laughed out of office, for claiming a 1500% drop in prices ... the mathematical ignorance is strong within the public.
I have to admit. I'm very weak on how capital/economics/power make things happen.
I'm much stronger on where we are actually at: GMST, OHC, EEI, planetary boundaries etc... and where we need to get to. How it could happen: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm much stronger on where we are actually at: GMST, OHC, EEI, planetary boundaries etc... and where we need to get to. How it could happen: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
November 7, 2025 at 6:35 PM
I have to admit. I'm very weak on how capital/economics/power make things happen.
I'm much stronger on where we are actually at: GMST, OHC, EEI, planetary boundaries etc... and where we need to get to. How it could happen: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'm much stronger on where we are actually at: GMST, OHC, EEI, planetary boundaries etc... and where we need to get to. How it could happen: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
bsky.app/profile/over... - Yay !
@mliebreich.bsky.social - does a provocation about renewables growth outpacing energy growth, leading to fossils being outcompeted. To my understanding that path also leads to well over 2.5C and disaster, but it is an interesting perspective.
@mliebreich.bsky.social - does a provocation about renewables growth outpacing energy growth, leading to fossils being outcompeted. To my understanding that path also leads to well over 2.5C and disaster, but it is an interesting perspective.
Don't worry, the second derivative of fossil fuel emissions has gone down.
November 7, 2025 at 6:04 PM
bsky.app/profile/over... - Yay !
@mliebreich.bsky.social - does a provocation about renewables growth outpacing energy growth, leading to fossils being outcompeted. To my understanding that path also leads to well over 2.5C and disaster, but it is an interesting perspective.
@mliebreich.bsky.social - does a provocation about renewables growth outpacing energy growth, leading to fossils being outcompeted. To my understanding that path also leads to well over 2.5C and disaster, but it is an interesting perspective.
30 year running average is ~1.008C with ERA5 data.
... Although we haven't had a single month averaging under 1C in the last 10 years. There was one in July 2015.
... Although we haven't had a single month averaging under 1C in the last 10 years. There was one in July 2015.
November 7, 2025 at 5:36 PM
30 year running average is ~1.008C with ERA5 data.
... Although we haven't had a single month averaging under 1C in the last 10 years. There was one in July 2015.
... Although we haven't had a single month averaging under 1C in the last 10 years. There was one in July 2015.
BBC Radio 4 Friday rush hour: lets pick a politician at random, from the 650 available to talk about MP surgeries. Oh look we chose Lee Anderthal from Reform.
November 7, 2025 at 5:29 PM
BBC Radio 4 Friday rush hour: lets pick a politician at random, from the 650 available to talk about MP surgeries. Oh look we chose Lee Anderthal from Reform.
Indeed.
I was referencing the webpage which hosts the cryosphere report 2025
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
... which says:
"Staying even at current warming levels of 1.2°C ..."
With Copernicus data you would need to use a 14+ year running average to claim we're at 1.2C
I was referencing the webpage which hosts the cryosphere report 2025
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
... which says:
"Staying even at current warming levels of 1.2°C ..."
With Copernicus data you would need to use a 14+ year running average to claim we're at 1.2C
State of the Cryosphere Report 2025 – ICCI – International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
iccinet.org
November 7, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Indeed.
I was referencing the webpage which hosts the cryosphere report 2025
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
... which says:
"Staying even at current warming levels of 1.2°C ..."
With Copernicus data you would need to use a 14+ year running average to claim we're at 1.2C
I was referencing the webpage which hosts the cryosphere report 2025
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
... which says:
"Staying even at current warming levels of 1.2°C ..."
With Copernicus data you would need to use a 14+ year running average to claim we're at 1.2C