Oren Samet
@osamet.bsky.social
Political scientist studying how oppositions challenge dictators at home and abroad. Opposition parties, authoritarianism, elections, foreign policy, Southeast Asia. Postdoc @ Stanford CDDRL orensamet.com
I did write these words yesterday and ponder how close we are to that reality in the United States right now
September 3, 2025 at 10:44 PM
I did write these words yesterday and ponder how close we are to that reality in the United States right now
Combined as well with the pullback in diplomatic support for democracy/rights. The potential broader consequences of this kind of ecosystem collapse might be hard to overturn, I fear
This is from a working paper I have stashed away (with @jennieb7.bsky.social and @sdhyde.bsky.social ).
This is from a working paper I have stashed away (with @jennieb7.bsky.social and @sdhyde.bsky.social ).
September 3, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Combined as well with the pullback in diplomatic support for democracy/rights. The potential broader consequences of this kind of ecosystem collapse might be hard to overturn, I fear
This is from a working paper I have stashed away (with @jennieb7.bsky.social and @sdhyde.bsky.social ).
This is from a working paper I have stashed away (with @jennieb7.bsky.social and @sdhyde.bsky.social ).
The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another
September 3, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another
The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
September 2, 2025 at 3:52 PM
The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
More on the first part (opposition diplomacy) here: www.orensamet.com/research
September 1, 2025 at 11:52 PM
More on the first part (opposition diplomacy) here: www.orensamet.com/research
Right now, we have a mix of states using automatic vote by mail and no excuse absentee. Look at the map - it's not purely Dem vs GOP on these questions. Same goes for voting tech. GA (GOP-controlled), for ex, is one of the few states to use ballot marking devices rather than pure paper ballots
September 1, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Right now, we have a mix of states using automatic vote by mail and no excuse absentee. Look at the map - it's not purely Dem vs GOP on these questions. Same goes for voting tech. GA (GOP-controlled), for ex, is one of the few states to use ballot marking devices rather than pure paper ballots
Very important point in an excellent thread. If we are operating in the zone of competitive authoritarianism, winning the midterms is both important and incredibly dangerous. It could resemble a set of cases that I have written about here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
August 30, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Very important point in an excellent thread. If we are operating in the zone of competitive authoritarianism, winning the midterms is both important and incredibly dangerous. It could resemble a set of cases that I have written about here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
I know there's a lot happening today, but this is sneaking in under the radar. This proposed new rule would absolutely crush foreign PhD students, potentially making it impossible for them to enroll with any certainty of their ability to finish www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
August 28, 2025 at 3:29 AM
I know there's a lot happening today, but this is sneaking in under the radar. This proposed new rule would absolutely crush foreign PhD students, potentially making it impossible for them to enroll with any certainty of their ability to finish www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
“a U.S.-sanctioned human rights abuser, continues to use Brazil’s institutions to silence opposition and threaten democracy”
Democracy promotion back on the menu I guess? The US just can’t quit a “values-based” foreign policy
Democracy promotion back on the menu I guess? The US just can’t quit a “values-based” foreign policy
August 5, 2025 at 1:08 AM
“a U.S.-sanctioned human rights abuser, continues to use Brazil’s institutions to silence opposition and threaten democracy”
Democracy promotion back on the menu I guess? The US just can’t quit a “values-based” foreign policy
Democracy promotion back on the menu I guess? The US just can’t quit a “values-based” foreign policy
The US’s new “values-based” foreign policy is increasingly zeroing in on Europe and platform regulation as key priority areas
This type of rhetoric was previously reserved for the worst dictatorships. Now it’s deployed against allies
This type of rhetoric was previously reserved for the worst dictatorships. Now it’s deployed against allies
July 23, 2025 at 6:31 PM
The US’s new “values-based” foreign policy is increasingly zeroing in on Europe and platform regulation as key priority areas
This type of rhetoric was previously reserved for the worst dictatorships. Now it’s deployed against allies
This type of rhetoric was previously reserved for the worst dictatorships. Now it’s deployed against allies
And there it is (this is a “Trump Advisor”). They’re extremely explicit about it: we must stand up for “democracy” and that means anyone who can cast themself as an oppressed Trumpian figure deserves US gov support
July 18, 2025 at 11:47 PM
And there it is (this is a “Trump Advisor”). They’re extremely explicit about it: we must stand up for “democracy” and that means anyone who can cast themself as an oppressed Trumpian figure deserves US gov support
Rubio just ordered sanctions against Brazil’s Supreme Court for proceeding with the case against former Pres Bolsonaro.
Incredible example of the new “values-based” foreign policy in action: Using the tools of statecraft to punish perceived offenses against right wingers abroad
Incredible example of the new “values-based” foreign policy in action: Using the tools of statecraft to punish perceived offenses against right wingers abroad
July 18, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Rubio just ordered sanctions against Brazil’s Supreme Court for proceeding with the case against former Pres Bolsonaro.
Incredible example of the new “values-based” foreign policy in action: Using the tools of statecraft to punish perceived offenses against right wingers abroad
Incredible example of the new “values-based” foreign policy in action: Using the tools of statecraft to punish perceived offenses against right wingers abroad
This is a classic dilemma for opposition politicians calling for international pressure in autocracies (the focus of much of my research!). Easy to get painted as “tools of foreign interference.” Now becomes increasingly relevant in democracies as well
July 10, 2025 at 4:47 PM
This is a classic dilemma for opposition politicians calling for international pressure in autocracies (the focus of much of my research!). Easy to get painted as “tools of foreign interference.” Now becomes increasingly relevant in democracies as well
Here’s Sec Rubio invoking “free speech rights” in criticizing foreign govs’ domestic policies.
It’s a perfect example of what I call the new values-based foreign policy. Still moralistic, just with different objectives.
I wrote about it for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
It’s a perfect example of what I call the new values-based foreign policy. Still moralistic, just with different objectives.
I wrote about it for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
May 28, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Here’s Sec Rubio invoking “free speech rights” in criticizing foreign govs’ domestic policies.
It’s a perfect example of what I call the new values-based foreign policy. Still moralistic, just with different objectives.
I wrote about it for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
It’s a perfect example of what I call the new values-based foreign policy. Still moralistic, just with different objectives.
I wrote about it for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
Southeast Asia getting absolutely hammered here. Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam all north of 40%, Thailand and Indonesia above 30%. Massive geopolitical implications for US-China rivalry in the region
#ASEAN #TrumpTariffs
#ASEAN #TrumpTariffs
April 2, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Southeast Asia getting absolutely hammered here. Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam all north of 40%, Thailand and Indonesia above 30%. Massive geopolitical implications for US-China rivalry in the region
#ASEAN #TrumpTariffs
#ASEAN #TrumpTariffs
Looking forward to presenting next week at the Junior IO Scholars workshop! It’s online and open to all so please tune in if you’re interested
Will be presenting new work on party internationals - part of my larger research on opposition politics and transnational networks
Will be presenting new work on party internationals - part of my larger research on opposition politics and transnational networks
April 2, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Looking forward to presenting next week at the Junior IO Scholars workshop! It’s online and open to all so please tune in if you’re interested
Will be presenting new work on party internationals - part of my larger research on opposition politics and transnational networks
Will be presenting new work on party internationals - part of my larger research on opposition politics and transnational networks
This is the essence of Republican foreign policy. And once you realize that, all the incoherence makes sense. The crap about our “national interest” is bogus. They believe that destroying America is worth it if they get to own the libs. Nothing beyond that.
March 30, 2025 at 6:07 AM
This is the essence of Republican foreign policy. And once you realize that, all the incoherence makes sense. The crap about our “national interest” is bogus. They believe that destroying America is worth it if they get to own the libs. Nothing beyond that.
This statement comes as Rubio finalizes plans to functionally eliminate USAID. I'm glad the teams on the ground are "safe and secure" but they won't have jobs soon. The commitment to provide assistance is completely hollow
March 29, 2025 at 4:43 AM
This statement comes as Rubio finalizes plans to functionally eliminate USAID. I'm glad the teams on the ground are "safe and secure" but they won't have jobs soon. The commitment to provide assistance is completely hollow
This is a fascinating one. Kind of hilarious that they even included it. Doesn’t fit with the rest at all. Joe Wilson has been interesting to watch the past few weeks on Russia/Ukraine, especially.
February 28, 2025 at 11:18 PM
This is a fascinating one. Kind of hilarious that they even included it. Doesn’t fit with the rest at all. Joe Wilson has been interesting to watch the past few weeks on Russia/Ukraine, especially.
Seems increasingly clear that the USAID moves by DOGE constitute both an ideological crusade and a highly calibrated power play. Choosing one of the weakest orgs from a public opinion standpoint and pushing beyond the limits of legality to demonstrate Congress & State’s impotence
February 25, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Seems increasingly clear that the USAID moves by DOGE constitute both an ideological crusade and a highly calibrated power play. Choosing one of the weakest orgs from a public opinion standpoint and pushing beyond the limits of legality to demonstrate Congress & State’s impotence
A lot more details in the article itself (which is Open Access!), including about the Myanmar context, the specific questions about tolerance we asked, and what this all means for assessing Facebook’s place in a changing world
Read more here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
15/END
Read more here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
15/END
December 17, 2024 at 6:58 PM
A lot more details in the article itself (which is Open Access!), including about the Myanmar context, the specific questions about tolerance we asked, and what this all means for assessing Facebook’s place in a changing world
Read more here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
15/END
Read more here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
15/END
The findings upend some conventional wisdom: Facebook users express significantly *more* tolerant attitudes than Myanmar citizens who do *not* use the platform
9/15
9/15
December 17, 2024 at 6:58 PM
The findings upend some conventional wisdom: Facebook users express significantly *more* tolerant attitudes than Myanmar citizens who do *not* use the platform
9/15
9/15
tl;dr - using nationally representative survey data, we find that #Facebook users are *more* tolerant than their offline counterparts in Myanmar, cutting against conventional wisdom that Facebook has been a uniquely powerful driver of ethnic and religious intolerance
2/15
2/15
December 17, 2024 at 6:58 PM
tl;dr - using nationally representative survey data, we find that #Facebook users are *more* tolerant than their offline counterparts in Myanmar, cutting against conventional wisdom that Facebook has been a uniquely powerful driver of ethnic and religious intolerance
2/15
2/15