Oliver Ward
@oliward.bsky.social
Trade editor at Agri-Pulse
Brit in the U.S.
Into graphs
Tips & coffee invites welcome at [email protected]
Brit in the U.S.
Into graphs
Tips & coffee invites welcome at [email protected]
Soybean sales to China since the Trump-Xi meeting have been even more tepid than we initially thought. USDA issues a correction after a Chinese buyer cancels 100,000 tons in orders.
November 17, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Soybean sales to China since the Trump-Xi meeting have been even more tepid than we initially thought. USDA issues a correction after a Chinese buyer cancels 100,000 tons in orders.
No specific mention of the beef tariff-rate quota in the Argentina trade framework's joint statement, only a mention of reciprocal market access.
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 PM
No specific mention of the beef tariff-rate quota in the Argentina trade framework's joint statement, only a mention of reciprocal market access.
👀👀 White House website has a heading for a joint statement on a framework for a trade pact with Argentina, but it's a dead link right now.
November 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
👀👀 White House website has a heading for a joint statement on a framework for a trade pact with Argentina, but it's a dead link right now.
The White House provides further clarity on China's soybean purchase commitments. Looks like the 12 MMT is for the rest of 2025, and the 25 MMT are for the next three calendar years.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
November 2, 2025 at 2:24 PM
The White House provides further clarity on China's soybean purchase commitments. Looks like the 12 MMT is for the rest of 2025, and the 25 MMT are for the next three calendar years.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
The Japanese served Trump & the US delegation American rice and beef for their working lunch today. Some context: Japan has been boosting its imports of US rice since the two sides signed a tariff deal in July. Japan committed to buying 75% more US rice, & is already quietly implementing it.
October 28, 2025 at 12:48 PM
The Japanese served Trump & the US delegation American rice and beef for their working lunch today. Some context: Japan has been boosting its imports of US rice since the two sides signed a tariff deal in July. Japan committed to buying 75% more US rice, & is already quietly implementing it.
US dairy has to pretty pleased with this provision in the U.S.-Malaysia pact. Malaysia restarted FTA talks with the European Union earlier this year, and geographical indicators for iconic products are always a negotiating priority for the Europeans.
October 26, 2025 at 8:00 PM
US dairy has to pretty pleased with this provision in the U.S.-Malaysia pact. Malaysia restarted FTA talks with the European Union earlier this year, and geographical indicators for iconic products are always a negotiating priority for the Europeans.
Ways & Means trade subcommittee Chair Adrian Smith on the admin plan to raise Argentina's beef tariff-rate quota.
October 24, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Ways & Means trade subcommittee Chair Adrian Smith on the admin plan to raise Argentina's beef tariff-rate quota.
Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting is outpacing recent years, suggesting further U.S. export challenges next year. From Karen Braun at Zaner Ag Hedge.
www.zaneraghedge.com/newsletter-r...
www.zaneraghedge.com/newsletter-r...
October 16, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting is outpacing recent years, suggesting further U.S. export challenges next year. From Karen Braun at Zaner Ag Hedge.
www.zaneraghedge.com/newsletter-r...
www.zaneraghedge.com/newsletter-r...
Indonesian media reporting US deal has tariff carveouts for ag commodities not produced domestically. From @antara-poster.bsky.social
en.antaranews.com/news/385177/...
en.antaranews.com/news/385177/...
October 9, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Indonesian media reporting US deal has tariff carveouts for ag commodities not produced domestically. From @antara-poster.bsky.social
en.antaranews.com/news/385177/...
en.antaranews.com/news/385177/...
Confidence among farmers that Trump's tariffs will lead to long-term economic gains is slipping. New survey data from Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer shows just 51% think the increased use of tariffs will strengthen the ag economy in the long-run, down from 63% in June.
ag.purdue.edu/commercialag...
ag.purdue.edu/commercialag...
October 9, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Confidence among farmers that Trump's tariffs will lead to long-term economic gains is slipping. New survey data from Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer shows just 51% think the increased use of tariffs will strengthen the ag economy in the long-run, down from 63% in June.
ag.purdue.edu/commercialag...
ag.purdue.edu/commercialag...
"Countries such as Tunisia are base hits, not a home run like China, Ewoldt said. Creating new markets helps over time, but if U.S. growers can’t sell their beans soon, Ewoldt worries about getting enough cash to finance his farm." From @wsj.com last night.
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
October 8, 2025 at 1:29 PM
"Countries such as Tunisia are base hits, not a home run like China, Ewoldt said. Creating new markets helps over time, but if U.S. growers can’t sell their beans soon, Ewoldt worries about getting enough cash to finance his farm." From @wsj.com last night.
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
Senate Democrats write to Trump to insist he abandon plans to give financial support to Argentina. The move had rankled US soybean farmers, who face competition from Argentina in the Chinese market.
More context here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...
More context here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...
September 30, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Senate Democrats write to Trump to insist he abandon plans to give financial support to Argentina. The move had rankled US soybean farmers, who face competition from Argentina in the Chinese market.
More context here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...
More context here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...
The vast majority of the $7 bn in grain exports that Argentina secured during its two-day export tax holiday were soybeans, soymeal and soybean oil -- with around 75 million bushels headed to China. Only ~17% of the value came from corn, wheat, and barley. From BCR via Susan Stroud of No Bull.
September 29, 2025 at 12:43 PM
The vast majority of the $7 bn in grain exports that Argentina secured during its two-day export tax holiday were soybeans, soymeal and soybean oil -- with around 75 million bushels headed to China. Only ~17% of the value came from corn, wheat, and barley. From BCR via Susan Stroud of No Bull.
US soybean producers are frustrated by Bessent's offer of financial assistance to Argentina. The move also comes on the heels of Arg. suspending its grain export tax, which spurred a flurry of orders from China for Argentine soybeans this week and contributed to a further slide in US price
September 24, 2025 at 7:21 PM
US soybean producers are frustrated by Bessent's offer of financial assistance to Argentina. The move also comes on the heels of Arg. suspending its grain export tax, which spurred a flurry of orders from China for Argentine soybeans this week and contributed to a further slide in US price
Tariffs now account for almost a fifth of annual household taxes, up from less than 5% before Trump took office -- from Apollo Academy.
September 22, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Tariffs now account for almost a fifth of annual household taxes, up from less than 5% before Trump took office -- from Apollo Academy.
In the Canadian press today (CBC), tariffs have driven Canadian supermarkets away from US food products. Even with tariffs lifted, there's no guarantee those trade relationships will be rebuilt.
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
September 19, 2025 at 6:45 PM
In the Canadian press today (CBC), tariffs have driven Canadian supermarkets away from US food products. Even with tariffs lifted, there's no guarantee those trade relationships will be rebuilt.
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
After yesterday's drama, the House will vote later today on a rule that would, among other things, shorten the block on future tariff votes from March to January.
rules.house.gov/sites/evo-su...
rules.house.gov/sites/evo-su...
September 17, 2025 at 7:14 PM
After yesterday's drama, the House will vote later today on a rule that would, among other things, shorten the block on future tariff votes from March to January.
rules.house.gov/sites/evo-su...
rules.house.gov/sites/evo-su...
Chinese buyers still aren't placing orders for the new US soybean crop. Absent a political solution that lowers tariffs or kickstarts purchases, the Chinese buying freeze could last several more months, analysts say. Chinese imports from Brazil have been above trend recently and stocks are high. 1/4
September 17, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Chinese buyers still aren't placing orders for the new US soybean crop. Absent a political solution that lowers tariffs or kickstarts purchases, the Chinese buying freeze could last several more months, analysts say. Chinese imports from Brazil have been above trend recently and stocks are high. 1/4
Where is the tariff inflation? It's there. Food prices are creeping up and goods prices are clearly climbing, but the impact has been blunted by slowing services inflation, as per @baldwinre.bsky.social's latest Factful Friday installment.
September 15, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Where is the tariff inflation? It's there. Food prices are creeping up and goods prices are clearly climbing, but the impact has been blunted by slowing services inflation, as per @baldwinre.bsky.social's latest Factful Friday installment.
Trump may have missed the lesson from Canada that wielding tariffs to influence foreign countries' domestic policy only helps the defiant incumbent. @economist.com chart, via @pkrugman.bsky.social
August 1, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Trump may have missed the lesson from Canada that wielding tariffs to influence foreign countries' domestic policy only helps the defiant incumbent. @economist.com chart, via @pkrugman.bsky.social
BRB, just heading into a toxic workplace where everyone is pissed off with everyone.
August 1, 2025 at 1:41 PM
BRB, just heading into a toxic workplace where everyone is pissed off with everyone.
👀👀From yesterday, but FAS says Chinese importers of U.S. ag products are struggling to submit applications for exemptions to the retaliatory tariffs imposed under Trump's first term. Beijing stood up an exclusion process as part of the implementation of the Phase One deal.
July 24, 2025 at 12:22 PM
👀👀From yesterday, but FAS says Chinese importers of U.S. ag products are struggling to submit applications for exemptions to the retaliatory tariffs imposed under Trump's first term. Beijing stood up an exclusion process as part of the implementation of the Phase One deal.
👀 Trump nomination to the Senate 👀
July 17, 2025 at 2:35 PM
👀 Trump nomination to the Senate 👀
Commerce is pressing ahead with its decision to withdraw from the tomato suspension agreement with Mexico tonight, despite an eleventh-hour full-court lobbying press from those pushing for a delay (see here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/231...)
July 14, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Commerce is pressing ahead with its decision to withdraw from the tomato suspension agreement with Mexico tonight, despite an eleventh-hour full-court lobbying press from those pushing for a delay (see here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/231...)