Jan-Ole Koslik
@olemole.bsky.social
PhD student 🎓 in Statistics at Bielefeld University interested in doubly stochastic processes and their application to ecology 🦅, sports 🏈, and finance 📈.
Website: https://janoleko.github.io
GitHub: https://github.com/janoleko
Website: https://janoleko.github.io
GitHub: https://github.com/janoleko
Using #simulations and a case study on #fruitflies 🪰, we show that
- the widely used stationary approximation can be severely biased! ❌
- dwell-time distributions can deviate substantially from a #geometric shape.
#HMM #MarkovChain #seasonality #diel #stats #rstats #StatisticalEcology #behaviour
- the widely used stationary approximation can be severely biased! ❌
- dwell-time distributions can deviate substantially from a #geometric shape.
#HMM #MarkovChain #seasonality #diel #stats #rstats #StatisticalEcology #behaviour
December 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Using #simulations and a case study on #fruitflies 🪰, we show that
- the widely used stationary approximation can be severely biased! ❌
- dwell-time distributions can deviate substantially from a #geometric shape.
#HMM #MarkovChain #seasonality #diel #stats #rstats #StatisticalEcology #behaviour
- the widely used stationary approximation can be severely biased! ❌
- dwell-time distributions can deviate substantially from a #geometric shape.
#HMM #MarkovChain #seasonality #diel #stats #rstats #StatisticalEcology #behaviour
Our paper on #HMMs with periodically ⏰ varying transition probabilities is published! 🎉 @carlinafeldmann.bsky.social, Sina Mews, @rmichels.bsky.social @rolandlangrock.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107
We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution
doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107
We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution
December 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Our paper on #HMMs with periodically ⏰ varying transition probabilities is published! 🎉 @carlinafeldmann.bsky.social, Sina Mews, @rmichels.bsky.social @rolandlangrock.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107
We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution
doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107
We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution
In this year‘s NFL Big Data Bowl 🏈 submission, @rmichels.bsky.social, Robert Bajons, and I employ hidden Markov models to uncover 🔎guarding assignments and use this additional information to improve the prediction of defensive strategies. 📊
#bigdatabowl #rstats
#bigdatabowl #rstats
January 7, 2025 at 2:10 PM
In this year‘s NFL Big Data Bowl 🏈 submission, @rmichels.bsky.social, Robert Bajons, and I employ hidden Markov models to uncover 🔎guarding assignments and use this additional information to improve the prediction of defensive strategies. 📊
#bigdatabowl #rstats
#bigdatabowl #rstats
I crunch a lot of numbers to ultimately tell people „yeah this thing may or may not happen idk“.
December 30, 2024 at 10:25 PM
I crunch a lot of numbers to ultimately tell people „yeah this thing may or may not happen idk“.
December 30, 2024 at 2:10 PM