Interesting development! But their CO2 equivalency calculations need some work. Even in Canada (where annual mileage is lower than the US), the average car emits around 3 tCO2 per year... so avoiding 10 MtCO2 annually is more like taking 3 million cars off the road, not 27 milliion.

Average Brazilian PV plant is sited much closer to the equator than in Chile, South Africa, or Australia.

As such, standalone solar systems can do more than ever before. In addition to basic loads, Even single-panel setups can power productive-use equipment like irrigation pumps, grain mills, and fridges, transforming livelihoods in underserved areas. Their potential is too significant to overlook.

In reality, the simplicity of standalone solar systems is making them increasingly cost-effective across various contexts. With no need for poles, expensive conductors, or civil works, they have benefited disproprtionately from plummeting solar PV and lithium-ion battery costs.

The UAE has some of the highest and most consistent solar insolation globally (>90th percentile for both), so this project would not be replicable in most markets at a similar cost. But as PV and battery costs continue to fall, we’ll surely see more projects like this in other countries soon.

With CAPEX of $6bn, it might seem expensive. But given it will have zero fuel costs, I estimate it could generate electricity at $0.06/kWh at 4% cost of capital, $0.07/kWh at 6% CoC, or still $0.09 at 10% CoC.

And presumably these figures miss much of the behind-the-meter (and all the standalone) solar in these markets. Has anyone analyzed PV module trade data to estimate the % of unreported solar generation in SSA? I'm taking inspiration from the recent hoopla around Pakistani PV imports and deployments.

Absolutely! This is more of a thought experiment to challenge the notion that RE can't play a significant role in countries with weaker grid infrastructure or limited capacity to integrate RE assets.

One more interesting data point: new tender winners in India for solar+2-hour BESS at $41/MWh. With double the BESS, you'd presumably still be well under $70/MWh. www.energy-storage.news/india-seci-r...

Hadn't seen this; thanks for sharing! I couldn't help but zip through to their cost assumptions, specifically for BESS. $291/kWh all-in (or over 4x those bids out of China). Surely this is going to come down fast.

On average, in Sub-Saharan Africa, during the lowest-insolation months, PV systems still generate ~75% of what they do in their best months. So an approximately 33% overbuild can make them seasonally 'firm'.

Not the same thing, but I just calculated that Chinese industrial power demand accounts for nearly 60% of its total demand. This translates to 3.6 MWh per capita, more than 30% higher than the US on a per capita basis (and over 400% higher on an absolute basis).

Do we have any sense of how much of that demand is derived from export-driven industries?

Link: www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/c...

Any intention of incorporating country-level T&D losses at some point? Would love it if Ember power consumption figures reflected an estimate of actual consumption as opposed to just power generated.

Admittedly, the average new wind farm globally appears to be operating at closer to 35% capacity factor. Do we have a similar figure for solar?

Those wind capacity factors seem a bit high. Offshore farms can reach 40-60%, but IRENA pegs the global average for wind at ~27%, vs ~15% for solar. So wind still produces ~80% more per kW, but the gap isn’t quite as dramatic as 30-60% vs 9-30% suggests.