Nye Cominetti
@nyecominetti.bsky.social
At Resolution Foundation covering labour market, low pay, living wage.
Not contradicting your point but just emphasising that if this is true it really is a nominal prices problem and not an affordability problem (for average earners at least). Fast wage growth in recent years means wages and food prices have pretty much increased by the same amount since 2019.
December 2, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Not contradicting your point but just emphasising that if this is true it really is a nominal prices problem and not an affordability problem (for average earners at least). Fast wage growth in recent years means wages and food prices have pretty much increased by the same amount since 2019.
Politicians won't be delighted at this new concept of resigning to take responsibility for something having gone wrong.
Glad RF were among those offering support.
Glad RF were among those offering support.
December 1, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Politicians won't be delighted at this new concept of resigning to take responsibility for something having gone wrong.
Glad RF were among those offering support.
Glad RF were among those offering support.
Weird that someone was speculatively pinging the OBR url all morning
December 1, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Weird that someone was speculatively pinging the OBR url all morning
Didn't love this one, I think I prefer my narrators to be reliable. Good ending though
December 1, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Didn't love this one, I think I prefer my narrators to be reliable. Good ending though
Net migration is back at normal levels. ~200k in the year to June 25.
And that's without the additional rule changes Labour have already brought in (which are reducing visa numbers but not yet in this data) or plan to bring in.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Widely predicted but still striking.
And that's without the additional rule changes Labour have already brought in (which are reducing visa numbers but not yet in this data) or plan to bring in.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Widely predicted but still striking.
November 27, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Net migration is back at normal levels. ~200k in the year to June 25.
And that's without the additional rule changes Labour have already brought in (which are reducing visa numbers but not yet in this data) or plan to bring in.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Widely predicted but still striking.
And that's without the additional rule changes Labour have already brought in (which are reducing visa numbers but not yet in this data) or plan to bring in.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Widely predicted but still striking.
Take a budget break and enjoy one of my favourite ever photos: of my twined aunt and uncle. (Wales ~1960).
November 26, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Take a budget break and enjoy one of my favourite ever photos: of my twined aunt and uncle. (Wales ~1960).
8.5% is lower than the big increases made to the 18-20-yo rate in recent years. But it's still significant. No alarm bells on youth employment yet, but the NEET rate has been rising, and overall hiring is weak. So personally I think should have leant more on the 'watch out' bit of the remit.
November 25, 2025 at 10:29 PM
8.5% is lower than the big increases made to the 18-20-yo rate in recent years. But it's still significant. No alarm bells on youth employment yet, but the NEET rate has been rising, and overall hiring is weak. So personally I think should have leant more on the 'watch out' bit of the remit.
The bigger decision was on the youth rates. Govt's policy is that they are 'discriminatory', and explicitly to get rid of the 18-20-yo rate. Govt/LPC decision is to do this by converging on NLW, and the plan (based on pace of uprating) appears to be to achieve this within the parliament.
November 25, 2025 at 10:29 PM
The bigger decision was on the youth rates. Govt's policy is that they are 'discriminatory', and explicitly to get rid of the 18-20-yo rate. Govt/LPC decision is to do this by converging on NLW, and the plan (based on pace of uprating) appears to be to achieve this within the parliament.
The NLW increase is exactly the LPC's estimate from Aug. So no surprises for Govt or businesses this year. 🙂 Fulfils LPC's mandate to track average wages. 4.1% is a fair bit smaller than recent increases.
November 25, 2025 at 10:29 PM
The NLW increase is exactly the LPC's estimate from Aug. So no surprises for Govt or businesses this year. 🙂 Fulfils LPC's mandate to track average wages. 4.1% is a fair bit smaller than recent increases.
RF are pro MW, but we agree it's 2nd order to benefits in tackling poverty. Big fight with Osborne over that re tax credit cuts in 2015.
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
November 25, 2025 at 1:45 PM
RF are pro MW, but we agree it's 2nd order to benefits in tackling poverty. Big fight with Osborne over that re tax credit cuts in 2015.
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
This is a very Patrick Nice from the fast show. He even looks like him
www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
November 21, 2025 at 9:52 AM
This is a very Patrick Nice from the fast show. He even looks like him
www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
I expected that story because that's what the data had been showing over the summer (jobs flat rather than falling, unemployment stable rather than rising). And because businesses themselves said the NICs/NLW effects were mostly done
November 11, 2025 at 7:55 AM
I expected that story because that's what the data had been showing over the summer (jobs flat rather than falling, unemployment stable rather than rising). And because businesses themselves said the NICs/NLW effects were mostly done
A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%.
Here is our PN
Here is our PN
November 11, 2025 at 7:55 AM
A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%.
Here is our PN
Here is our PN
From last week. Climbing is fun! (This isn't a hard route but was hard for me)
November 10, 2025 at 9:18 PM
From last week. Climbing is fun! (This isn't a hard route but was hard for me)
4. The bosses have wage setting power. LFS data (slightly old, sorry) suggests grad salaries lost ground to the median - it's not just that min wage has caught up.
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 PM
4. The bosses have wage setting power. LFS data (slightly old, sorry) suggests grad salaries lost ground to the median - it's not just that min wage has caught up.
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
5. Regardless of those quibbles, it's interesting that the minimum wage has inadvertently become a maximum hours policy!
2. Even if it didn't, min wage is only encroaching on lowest grad salaries, as FT's chart shows. So even if no career progression, it still pays to go to uni.
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 PM
2. Even if it didn't, min wage is only encroaching on lowest grad salaries, as FT's chart shows. So even if no career progression, it still pays to go to uni.
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
3. Odd timing for this article. 2026 min wage increase will only be *in line with* av. earnings (~4%). What do the bosses want exactly?
Found this piece about minimum wage catching up with entry level grad pay a bit odd.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Found this piece about minimum wage catching up with entry level grad pay a bit odd.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
The telegraph covered this (that's me off my mum's Christmas card list) but managed to butcher the chart 😭
October 28, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The telegraph covered this (that's me off my mum's Christmas card list) but managed to butcher the chart 😭
Many measures in the ERB bring the UK closer into line with other rich countries, but making unfair dismissal protection a day one right would take UK from one end of the scale (2 year qualifying periods are unusual and unjustified) to the other (no qualifying period at all also unusual- see chart).
October 28, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Many measures in the ERB bring the UK closer into line with other rich countries, but making unfair dismissal protection a day one right would take UK from one end of the scale (2 year qualifying periods are unusual and unjustified) to the other (no qualifying period at all also unusual- see chart).
4. More in the weeds, but hourly pay growth > weekly, pretty much across the board, aka hours down. I thought maybe an ASHE oddity but it's also in the LFS - not something I'd noticed. It's consistent with a NICS/NLW response but I'd have expected that to be more bottom heavy. One to ponder!
October 23, 2025 at 12:09 PM
4. More in the weeds, but hourly pay growth > weekly, pretty much across the board, aka hours down. I thought maybe an ASHE oddity but it's also in the LFS - not something I'd noticed. It's consistent with a NICS/NLW response but I'd have expected that to be more bottom heavy. One to ponder!
2. Another type of pay inquality - the gender pay gap - is also coming down. It now stands at 7% among full-time workers. 50 years ago the gap was five times bigger
October 23, 2025 at 12:05 PM
2. Another type of pay inquality - the gender pay gap - is also coming down. It now stands at 7% among full-time workers. 50 years ago the gap was five times bigger
1. Low hourly pay continues to fall. Now at 2.5%. 'Low pay' is generally defined as earnings below 2/3 the median. This is of course the work of the rising minimum wage. You don't get many charts this striking ...
October 23, 2025 at 12:05 PM
1. Low hourly pay continues to fall. Now at 2.5%. 'Low pay' is generally defined as earnings below 2/3 the median. This is of course the work of the rising minimum wage. You don't get many charts this striking ...
Each dot is a ship and most ships carried 400+ slaves. This is a freeze frame from one year
October 23, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Each dot is a ship and most ships carried 400+ slaves. This is a freeze frame from one year
A second cool thing about Finland in two days. It's the only OECD country (maybe the only country full stop?) where male and female employment rates are basically the same.
October 14, 2025 at 3:04 PM
A second cool thing about Finland in two days. It's the only OECD country (maybe the only country full stop?) where male and female employment rates are basically the same.
The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, John Le Carre.
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now
October 14, 2025 at 1:51 PM
The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, John Le Carre.
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now
As good as I was told it would be. I guess I have to read all the others now