🚨 New publication 🚨 I discuss how election forecasters should account for minority voters in state-based models. The margins can be consequential, and the case of the Uncommitted Movement reflects on the potential impact of minority voters in swing states.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Tomorrow night at MSU, looking forward to the conversation! @mattgrossmann.bsky.social

The personalization of the events in Gaza (feeling a personal connection to the events) and the attribution of responsibility to Harris emerged as key predictors of voting intentions for Stein (6/7)

Although Arabs and Muslims perceived alignment with Trump or Harris on some issues, they contrasted sharply from both on U.S. military aid to Israel in Gaza. In contrast, white respondents expressed a variety of positions, aligning more with Trump on supporting military aid (5/7)

Arabs and Muslims demonstrated weaker ideological alignment with major party candidates, while whites showed a clear ideological divide between support for the major party candidates (4/7)

Arabs and Muslims showed notable divergence from Whites, with higher support for Jill Stein and a greater likelihood of abstaining from voting altogether (3/7)

When your colleagues also make the best coffee in town @mattgrossmann.bsky.social

Hi! Your friendly Afghan political scientist finally made it to the platform! Follow if you’re interested on insights on American politics, Afghans, American Muslims, Arab Americans…with random musings as a proud Midwesterner with Bay Area 🐻 roots 😊 #politics