NOLA Analytics
@nolaanalytics.bsky.social
Analysis on Pelicans and Saints (and a hint of Alabama) mostly from a stats/math/analytics background
Here is the complete list of QBs the Saints have beaten in the nearly 4 years since Sean Payton left:
November 11, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Here is the complete list of QBs the Saints have beaten in the nearly 4 years since Sean Payton left:
After (apparently wisely) skipping out on watching the first 6 games and this season of Pelicans basketball, I get to cheer for my basketball team tonight. Let's go!
November 3, 2025 at 2:42 PM
After (apparently wisely) skipping out on watching the first 6 games and this season of Pelicans basketball, I get to cheer for my basketball team tonight. Let's go!
This is the future the libs want (shoutout Nate Oats)
October 27, 2025 at 5:00 PM
This is the future the libs want (shoutout Nate Oats)
Pelicans also have the 2nd hardest first 10 games in the NBA. It's very much setting up for the national media cycle to only continue to get worse for the Pelicans.
August 14, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Pelicans also have the 2nd hardest first 10 games in the NBA. It's very much setting up for the national media cycle to only continue to get worse for the Pelicans.
The Pelicans have the hardest schedule in the NBA this season.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
August 14, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The Pelicans have the hardest schedule in the NBA this season.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
Their win total is down to 29.5 on Fanduel, shaded towards the Under.
Using win totals and alternate win totals on DraftKings, here are the Pelicans projections for next season:
July 15, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Using win totals and alternate win totals on DraftKings, here are the Pelicans projections for next season:
I'm not watching and, good or bad, it's just Summer League, but I once again feel for Derik Queen because, based on where he was drafted, there's a > 50% chance he's not a playoff rotation level player, but he now has top 5 pick expectations because of an awful trade by the Pelicans.
July 10, 2025 at 8:55 PM
I'm not watching and, good or bad, it's just Summer League, but I once again feel for Derik Queen because, based on where he was drafted, there's a > 50% chance he's not a playoff rotation level player, but he now has top 5 pick expectations because of an awful trade by the Pelicans.
Here's the current full NBA snapshot with some initial line movements overnight. Pelicans now down to 13th in the West and alone at the 6th lowest win total in the NBA at 31.5 wins.
July 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Here's the current full NBA snapshot with some initial line movements overnight. Pelicans now down to 13th in the West and alone at the 6th lowest win total in the NBA at 31.5 wins.
What it costs a normal team to outright trade for a top 10 pick (albeit in a bad draft so probably commensurate value with #13 last night) vs what it costs the Pelicans to move up 10 spots.
June 26, 2025 at 12:59 PM
What it costs a normal team to outright trade for a top 10 pick (albeit in a bad draft so probably commensurate value with #13 last night) vs what it costs the Pelicans to move up 10 spots.
If this is true, it's organizational malpractice by Toronto, Phoenix, Portland, and Chicago not to take this deal.
June 26, 2025 at 4:21 AM
If this is true, it's organizational malpractice by Toronto, Phoenix, Portland, and Chicago not to take this deal.
Willie and Dumars when Jordan Poole starts the year jacking up pull up 30 footers vs when they successfully change those into 18 foot fadeaways.
June 24, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Willie and Dumars when Jordan Poole starts the year jacking up pull up 30 footers vs when they successfully change those into 18 foot fadeaways.
LSU's ability to convince everyone that it is more deserving of night games than everyone else is such an absolute masterclass in PR that should be universally studied.
May 29, 2025 at 4:40 PM
LSU's ability to convince everyone that it is more deserving of night games than everyone else is such an absolute masterclass in PR that should be universally studied.
This doesn't really move the needle for me as a Pelicans fan because the Pacers play in the East and traded a fringe All Star for a young guy with potential, and the Thunder went through a thorough rebuild with only championships in mind, neither of which are things the Pelicans would ever do.
May 29, 2025 at 3:27 AM
This doesn't really move the needle for me as a Pelicans fan because the Pacers play in the East and traded a fringe All Star for a young guy with potential, and the Thunder went through a thorough rebuild with only championships in mind, neither of which are things the Pelicans would ever do.
Verbatim from @jdub9911.bsky.social: “JDub… a superstar… clip it.”
May 27, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Verbatim from @jdub9911.bsky.social: “JDub… a superstar… clip it.”
On the surface, I don't mind the Pelicans just simply running it back to start the season as Will Guillory suggests they might. If Zion can return to being a top 5-10 player, they have enough to remain in the hunt for the 4-6 seed until they can make a buy-move mid-season.
May 27, 2025 at 3:25 PM
On the surface, I don't mind the Pelicans just simply running it back to start the season as Will Guillory suggests they might. If Zion can return to being a top 5-10 player, they have enough to remain in the hunt for the 4-6 seed until they can make a buy-move mid-season.
One reason Haliburton has always been an analytics god is that he doesn't turn it over, and his teams never turn it over when he's on the court. 23 shots, 11 assists, and 2 turnovers tonight.
May 22, 2025 at 4:28 AM
One reason Haliburton has always been an analytics god is that he doesn't turn it over, and his teams never turn it over when he's on the court. 23 shots, 11 assists, and 2 turnovers tonight.
A disconnect I have with some Pelicans fans is that while I do believe injuries were the reason the Pelicans were awful last season, the data does not suggest that they were a good (or even decent) team if not for injuries. Injuries only explain away about 20% of their 61 losses.
May 20, 2025 at 2:26 PM
A disconnect I have with some Pelicans fans is that while I do believe injuries were the reason the Pelicans were awful last season, the data does not suggest that they were a good (or even decent) team if not for injuries. Injuries only explain away about 20% of their 61 losses.
I will happily buy every single bit of JDub stock people want to sell after a 6 game stretch of poor shooting.
May 16, 2025 at 4:23 PM
I will happily buy every single bit of JDub stock people want to sell after a 6 game stretch of poor shooting.
I still think about this from time to time.
May 14, 2025 at 4:42 AM
I still think about this from time to time.
This is:
1) very early
2) not directly correlated to wins and/or odds to make the playoffs
But I just want to note that the Pelicans are currently tied for the 7th worst odds to win the 2026 NBA Finals (tied with Toronto and Miam), and they have the 3rd worst odds in the West (ahead of POR & UTA).
1) very early
2) not directly correlated to wins and/or odds to make the playoffs
But I just want to note that the Pelicans are currently tied for the 7th worst odds to win the 2026 NBA Finals (tied with Toronto and Miam), and they have the 3rd worst odds in the West (ahead of POR & UTA).
May 13, 2025 at 9:40 PM
This is:
1) very early
2) not directly correlated to wins and/or odds to make the playoffs
But I just want to note that the Pelicans are currently tied for the 7th worst odds to win the 2026 NBA Finals (tied with Toronto and Miam), and they have the 3rd worst odds in the West (ahead of POR & UTA).
1) very early
2) not directly correlated to wins and/or odds to make the playoffs
But I just want to note that the Pelicans are currently tied for the 7th worst odds to win the 2026 NBA Finals (tied with Toronto and Miam), and they have the 3rd worst odds in the West (ahead of POR & UTA).
And for #4 pick.
Again the 76ers combos were leading from the jump which would've trigged a re-draw.
Going into the final ball, the Hornets had 10/11 possible combinations.
Again the 76ers combos were leading from the jump which would've trigged a re-draw.
Going into the final ball, the Hornets had 10/11 possible combinations.
May 13, 2025 at 3:01 PM
And for #4 pick.
Again the 76ers combos were leading from the jump which would've trigged a re-draw.
Going into the final ball, the Hornets had 10/11 possible combinations.
Again the 76ers combos were leading from the jump which would've trigged a re-draw.
Going into the final ball, the Hornets had 10/11 possible combinations.
Same for #3 pick.
76ers were leading from the start (all 105 of their combinations began with the #3 ball).
Only 5 teams have the #3 in their combinations so 9 teams were eliminated from the very first ball.
Pelicans needed the #4 ball heading into the final drawing.
76ers were leading from the start (all 105 of their combinations began with the #3 ball).
Only 5 teams have the #3 in their combinations so 9 teams were eliminated from the very first ball.
Pelicans needed the #4 ball heading into the final drawing.
May 13, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Same for #3 pick.
76ers were leading from the start (all 105 of their combinations began with the #3 ball).
Only 5 teams have the #3 in their combinations so 9 teams were eliminated from the very first ball.
Pelicans needed the #4 ball heading into the final drawing.
76ers were leading from the start (all 105 of their combinations began with the #3 ball).
Only 5 teams have the #3 in their combinations so 9 teams were eliminated from the very first ball.
Pelicans needed the #4 ball heading into the final drawing.
Here's the same for the #2 pick.
We almost got the white whale: the 1,001st combination assigned to no one (11, 12, 13, 14). It was in play heading into the last ball.
The Mavs also had the #7 ball which would've trigged a re-draw.
The Pelicans again were just the #2 ball away on the last ball.
We almost got the white whale: the 1,001st combination assigned to no one (11, 12, 13, 14). It was in play heading into the last ball.
The Mavs also had the #7 ball which would've trigged a re-draw.
The Pelicans again were just the #2 ball away on the last ball.
May 13, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Here's the same for the #2 pick.
We almost got the white whale: the 1,001st combination assigned to no one (11, 12, 13, 14). It was in play heading into the last ball.
The Mavs also had the #7 ball which would've trigged a re-draw.
The Pelicans again were just the #2 ball away on the last ball.
We almost got the white whale: the 1,001st combination assigned to no one (11, 12, 13, 14). It was in play heading into the last ball.
The Mavs also had the #7 ball which would've trigged a re-draw.
The Pelicans again were just the #2 ball away on the last ball.
For anyone interested, here were the live odds after each ball drawing for the #1 pick.
Those #10 and #14 balls coming up first meant every single team was very much in play. Then the Spurs had by far the highest chance (27.3%) heading into the final ball. Pelicans needed #2.
Those #10 and #14 balls coming up first meant every single team was very much in play. Then the Spurs had by far the highest chance (27.3%) heading into the final ball. Pelicans needed #2.
May 13, 2025 at 2:48 PM
For anyone interested, here were the live odds after each ball drawing for the #1 pick.
Those #10 and #14 balls coming up first meant every single team was very much in play. Then the Spurs had by far the highest chance (27.3%) heading into the final ball. Pelicans needed #2.
Those #10 and #14 balls coming up first meant every single team was very much in play. Then the Spurs had by far the highest chance (27.3%) heading into the final ball. Pelicans needed #2.