Nils Steiner
@nilssteiner.bsky.social
Political Scientist at JGU Mainz, Germany.
Research on public opinion, elections, parties, and democracy (more at: https://www.nilssteiner.com/).
Spokesperson of the AK Wahlen (@dvpw.bsky.social).
Associate editor at @pvs-journal.bsky.social.
Research on public opinion, elections, parties, and democracy (more at: https://www.nilssteiner.com/).
Spokesperson of the AK Wahlen (@dvpw.bsky.social).
Associate editor at @pvs-journal.bsky.social.
Das Wintersemester an der @unimainz.bsky.social geht los.
Ich freue mich besonders auf mein neues Seminar zu Generationenunterschieden in politischen Einstellungen und dem Wahlverhalten.
Ich freue mich besonders auf mein neues Seminar zu Generationenunterschieden in politischen Einstellungen und dem Wahlverhalten.
October 27, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Das Wintersemester an der @unimainz.bsky.social geht los.
Ich freue mich besonders auf mein neues Seminar zu Generationenunterschieden in politischen Einstellungen und dem Wahlverhalten.
Ich freue mich besonders auf mein neues Seminar zu Generationenunterschieden in politischen Einstellungen und dem Wahlverhalten.
Exciting lineup for our (@powimz.bsky.social) research colloquia—the Forschungswerkstatt and the Democracy Seminar—this coming winter semester! I’m looking forward to welcoming many great guests and hearing from my colleagues.
October 7, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Exciting lineup for our (@powimz.bsky.social) research colloquia—the Forschungswerkstatt and the Democracy Seminar—this coming winter semester! I’m looking forward to welcoming many great guests and hearing from my colleagues.
Schönes Best-Practice-Beispiel für den journalistischen Verweis auf wissenschaftliche Forschung! Wenn man hier z. B. oben auf den hinterlegten Link klickt, kommt man direkt zu: Krause, W., Cohen, D., & Abou-Chadi, T. (2023). Does accommodation work? doi.org/10.1017/psrm... 👏👏👏
September 20, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Schönes Best-Practice-Beispiel für den journalistischen Verweis auf wissenschaftliche Forschung! Wenn man hier z. B. oben auf den hinterlegten Link klickt, kommt man direkt zu: Krause, W., Cohen, D., & Abou-Chadi, T. (2023). Does accommodation work? doi.org/10.1017/psrm... 👏👏👏
The #AKWahlen will meet again in Mainz on May 7-8, 2026, returning to our regular schedule. We hope to welcome many of you to beautiful Mainz next year!
September 19, 2025 at 6:05 PM
The #AKWahlen will meet again in Mainz on May 7-8, 2026, returning to our regular schedule. We hope to welcome many of you to beautiful Mainz next year!
Two fantastic days of the annual conference of the #AKWahlen are now behind us.
Many thanks for the many excellent presentations, the friendly atmosphere, and to the local Berlin team for the fabulous organisation on site! ❤️
Watch out for the special issue in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!
Many thanks for the many excellent presentations, the friendly atmosphere, and to the local Berlin team for the fabulous organisation on site! ❤️
Watch out for the special issue in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!
September 19, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Two fantastic days of the annual conference of the #AKWahlen are now behind us.
Many thanks for the many excellent presentations, the friendly atmosphere, and to the local Berlin team for the fabulous organisation on site! ❤️
Watch out for the special issue in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!
Many thanks for the many excellent presentations, the friendly atmosphere, and to the local Berlin team for the fabulous organisation on site! ❤️
Watch out for the special issue in @electoralstudies.bsky.social!
"Warum junge Männer die AfD wählen – und junge Frauen die Linke"
- (unter anderem) darüber habe ich mit dem Handelsblatt gesprochen: www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deut...
- (unter anderem) darüber habe ich mit dem Handelsblatt gesprochen: www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deut...
September 17, 2025 at 2:15 PM
"Warum junge Männer die AfD wählen – und junge Frauen die Linke"
- (unter anderem) darüber habe ich mit dem Handelsblatt gesprochen: www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deut...
- (unter anderem) darüber habe ich mit dem Handelsblatt gesprochen: www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deut...
The @powimz.bsky.social crowd enjoys the sunset cruise at the @ecpr.bsky.social conference in Thessaloniki. 😎
Together with @clandwehr.bsky.social, @arminschaefer.bsky.social, @stallbaum.bsky.social, @lionmert.bsky.social & @kwalz.bsky.social.
Together with @clandwehr.bsky.social, @arminschaefer.bsky.social, @stallbaum.bsky.social, @lionmert.bsky.social & @kwalz.bsky.social.
August 27, 2025 at 4:54 PM
The @powimz.bsky.social crowd enjoys the sunset cruise at the @ecpr.bsky.social conference in Thessaloniki. 😎
Together with @clandwehr.bsky.social, @arminschaefer.bsky.social, @stallbaum.bsky.social, @lionmert.bsky.social & @kwalz.bsky.social.
Together with @clandwehr.bsky.social, @arminschaefer.bsky.social, @stallbaum.bsky.social, @lionmert.bsky.social & @kwalz.bsky.social.
In einem Monat, am 18. & 19.9., trifft sich die Wahlforschungscommunity zur Jahrestagung des AK Wahlen & pol. Einstellungen der @dvpw.bsky.social an der FU Berlin.
Spannendes Programm, freundliche Kolleg:innen!
Anmeldung über meine.dvpw.de bis zum 1.9. möglich.
Siehe: www.dvpw.de/gliederung/a...
Spannendes Programm, freundliche Kolleg:innen!
Anmeldung über meine.dvpw.de bis zum 1.9. möglich.
Siehe: www.dvpw.de/gliederung/a...
August 18, 2025 at 7:03 AM
In einem Monat, am 18. & 19.9., trifft sich die Wahlforschungscommunity zur Jahrestagung des AK Wahlen & pol. Einstellungen der @dvpw.bsky.social an der FU Berlin.
Spannendes Programm, freundliche Kolleg:innen!
Anmeldung über meine.dvpw.de bis zum 1.9. möglich.
Siehe: www.dvpw.de/gliederung/a...
Spannendes Programm, freundliche Kolleg:innen!
Anmeldung über meine.dvpw.de bis zum 1.9. möglich.
Siehe: www.dvpw.de/gliederung/a...
These patterns hold up in multivariate models. And once we account for these second-order regularities, there is barely any evidence of party families systematically gaining or losing.
August 13, 2025 at 7:53 AM
These patterns hold up in multivariate models. And once we account for these second-order regularities, there is barely any evidence of party families systematically gaining or losing.
There’s also a clear size effect: The larger a party’s vote share in the previous national election, the more it tends to lose in the European Parliament election compared to that earlier result.
August 13, 2025 at 7:52 AM
There’s also a clear size effect: The larger a party’s vote share in the previous national election, the more it tends to lose in the European Parliament election compared to that earlier result.
I first look at this descriptively. Prime-ministerial parties’ vote gains/losses vary over the electoral cycle as expected. In contrast, junior coalition partners face rather steady losses throughout. (The small uptick at the end is due to cases with concurrent national elections.)
August 13, 2025 at 7:51 AM
I first look at this descriptively. Prime-ministerial parties’ vote gains/losses vary over the electoral cycle as expected. In contrast, junior coalition partners face rather steady losses throughout. (The small uptick at the end is due to cases with concurrent national elections.)
How does the second-order national election (SONE) theory hold up in the 2024 European Parliament election?
I explore this in a short letter now published in @eupthejournal.bsky.social.
Read it here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
I explore this in a short letter now published in @eupthejournal.bsky.social.
Read it here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
August 13, 2025 at 7:49 AM
How does the second-order national election (SONE) theory hold up in the 2024 European Parliament election?
I explore this in a short letter now published in @eupthejournal.bsky.social.
Read it here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
I explore this in a short letter now published in @eupthejournal.bsky.social.
Read it here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
(3) If we look at the 2024 @chesdata.bsky.social data, the relatively centrist 'morality' position of the BSW emerges a bit more clearly (especially on women's rights). Very quick table:
May 19, 2025 at 3:48 PM
(3) If we look at the 2024 @chesdata.bsky.social data, the relatively centrist 'morality' position of the BSW emerges a bit more clearly (especially on women's rights). Very quick table:
Among previous supporters of the Left with nationalist positions, the predicted probability of switching to the BSW becomes very high (up to 60%).
But the probability of switching is also quite substantial among previous AfD voters with left-leaning positions on the economic dimension (up to 25%)
But the probability of switching is also quite substantial among previous AfD voters with left-leaning positions on the economic dimension (up to 25%)
May 19, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Among previous supporters of the Left with nationalist positions, the predicted probability of switching to the BSW becomes very high (up to 60%).
But the probability of switching is also quite substantial among previous AfD voters with left-leaning positions on the economic dimension (up to 25%)
But the probability of switching is also quite substantial among previous AfD voters with left-leaning positions on the economic dimension (up to 25%)
These different spatial motives contrast with the almost uniform effect of attitudes on the Russo-Ukranian War: Being opposed to assisting Ukraine predicts switching to the BSW no matter which party individuals had supported previously (in line with: doi.org/10.1080/0964...).
May 19, 2025 at 7:59 AM
These different spatial motives contrast with the almost uniform effect of attitudes on the Russo-Ukranian War: Being opposed to assisting Ukraine predicts switching to the BSW no matter which party individuals had supported previously (in line with: doi.org/10.1080/0964...).
Next, we interact attitudes with prior party support to examine the different motives of switching to the BSW:
- Among prior The Left & Green voters, more nationalist positions predict switching.
- Among prior Union, FDP and AfD voters, economically left-wing positions predict switching to the BSW.
- Among prior The Left & Green voters, more nationalist positions predict switching.
- Among prior Union, FDP and AfD voters, economically left-wing positions predict switching to the BSW.
May 19, 2025 at 7:52 AM
Next, we interact attitudes with prior party support to examine the different motives of switching to the BSW:
- Among prior The Left & Green voters, more nationalist positions predict switching.
- Among prior Union, FDP and AfD voters, economically left-wing positions predict switching to the BSW.
- Among prior The Left & Green voters, more nationalist positions predict switching.
- Among prior Union, FDP and AfD voters, economically left-wing positions predict switching to the BSW.
We first replicate the result from study 1 with the GLES panel data: Voting for the BSW is associated with economically left-wing and nationalist positions, but unrelated to positions on the traditional morality dimension.
May 19, 2025 at 7:47 AM
We first replicate the result from study 1 with the GLES panel data: Voting for the BSW is associated with economically left-wing and nationalist positions, but unrelated to positions on the traditional morality dimension.
Many (37.6%) of those who intended to vote for The Left in October 2023 reported an intention to vote for the BSW in June 2024. But also about every ninth AfD voter (11.1%) switched to the BSW.
Also see: bsky.app/profile/cerp... & bsky.app/profile/did:...
Also see: bsky.app/profile/cerp... & bsky.app/profile/did:...
May 19, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Many (37.6%) of those who intended to vote for The Left in October 2023 reported an intention to vote for the BSW in June 2024. But also about every ninth AfD voter (11.1%) switched to the BSW.
Also see: bsky.app/profile/cerp... & bsky.app/profile/did:...
Also see: bsky.app/profile/cerp... & bsky.app/profile/did:...
This pattern holds in a multivariate model: The probability of voting for the BSW increases with
- more nationalist &
- more economically left-wing positions
- with the morality dimension exhibiting no significant effect.
- more nationalist &
- more economically left-wing positions
- with the morality dimension exhibiting no significant effect.
May 19, 2025 at 7:28 AM
This pattern holds in a multivariate model: The probability of voting for the BSW increases with
- more nationalist &
- more economically left-wing positions
- with the morality dimension exhibiting no significant effect.
- more nationalist &
- more economically left-wing positions
- with the morality dimension exhibiting no significant effect.
In study 1, we use this cross-sectional data to study how positions on the 3 dimensions are associated with voting BSW.
The average BSW voter is situated in the left-nationalist quadrant (but not the left-conservative one)—and, with 13.8%, its vote share is highest among voters in this quadrant.
The average BSW voter is situated in the left-nationalist quadrant (but not the left-conservative one)—and, with 13.8%, its vote share is highest among voters in this quadrant.
May 19, 2025 at 7:25 AM
In study 1, we use this cross-sectional data to study how positions on the 3 dimensions are associated with voting BSW.
The average BSW voter is situated in the left-nationalist quadrant (but not the left-conservative one)—and, with 13.8%, its vote share is highest among voters in this quadrant.
The average BSW voter is situated in the left-nationalist quadrant (but not the left-conservative one)—and, with 13.8%, its vote share is highest among voters in this quadrant.
This is reflected in how (its) voters perceive the party: The BSW is perceived as leaning in a 'nationalist' direction on immigration, but not in a 'conservative' direction on gender equality.
Data from the @gles.bsky.social tracking in March 2024.
Data from the @gles.bsky.social tracking in March 2024.
May 19, 2025 at 7:20 AM
This is reflected in how (its) voters perceive the party: The BSW is perceived as leaning in a 'nationalist' direction on immigration, but not in a 'conservative' direction on gender equality.
Data from the @gles.bsky.social tracking in March 2024.
Data from the @gles.bsky.social tracking in March 2024.
We first report evidence from the GEPARTEE expert survey (dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...) that suggests that the BSW is clearly 'left-nationalist', but not as clearly 'left-conservative' (in terms of traditional morality).
May 19, 2025 at 7:14 AM
We first report evidence from the GEPARTEE expert survey (dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...) that suggests that the BSW is clearly 'left-nationalist', but not as clearly 'left-conservative' (in terms of traditional morality).
To study voting for the BSW from a policy space perspective, we draw on the three-dimensional model popularised by Rehm & Kitschelt and others. It distinguishes between:
1. an economic dimension
2. a transnational dimension and
3. a traditional morality dimension.
1. an economic dimension
2. a transnational dimension and
3. a traditional morality dimension.
May 19, 2025 at 7:10 AM
To study voting for the BSW from a policy space perspective, we draw on the three-dimensional model popularised by Rehm & Kitschelt and others. It distinguishes between:
1. an economic dimension
2. a transnational dimension and
3. a traditional morality dimension.
1. an economic dimension
2. a transnational dimension and
3. a traditional morality dimension.
In this new article, we study voting for the BSW from a policy space perspective with @gles.bsky.social data.
Findings:
-BSW voters tend to be left-nationalist
-Depending on prior party support, either nationalist or economically left-wing positions predict switching to BSW
doi.org/10.1080/0964...
Findings:
-BSW voters tend to be left-nationalist
-Depending on prior party support, either nationalist or economically left-wing positions predict switching to BSW
doi.org/10.1080/0964...
May 19, 2025 at 7:03 AM
In this new article, we study voting for the BSW from a policy space perspective with @gles.bsky.social data.
Findings:
-BSW voters tend to be left-nationalist
-Depending on prior party support, either nationalist or economically left-wing positions predict switching to BSW
doi.org/10.1080/0964...
Findings:
-BSW voters tend to be left-nationalist
-Depending on prior party support, either nationalist or economically left-wing positions predict switching to BSW
doi.org/10.1080/0964...
In June, I’ll be joining the editorial team of @pvs-journal.bsky.social , the Political Science journal of the @dvpw.bsky.social. I'm very much looking forward to this new role and to handling your submissions. Keep them coming!
May 17, 2025 at 7:11 AM
In June, I’ll be joining the editorial team of @pvs-journal.bsky.social , the Political Science journal of the @dvpw.bsky.social. I'm very much looking forward to this new role and to handling your submissions. Keep them coming!