Nick Ashbourne
@nickashbourne.bsky.social
Blue Jays at Sportsnet and Leafs at @mapleleafshotstove.bsky.social
🎧 Talking Leafs on the MLHS Podcast and co-hosting Blue Jays Happy Hour (https://www.patreon.com/BJHH)
🎧 Talking Leafs on the MLHS Podcast and co-hosting Blue Jays Happy Hour (https://www.patreon.com/BJHH)
I wouldn't go that far, but I appreciate the comparison considering I sunk way too much time into the Bo Jackson game back in the day.
November 17, 2025 at 6:31 PM
I wouldn't go that far, but I appreciate the comparison considering I sunk way too much time into the Bo Jackson game back in the day.
Plenty of ballgame left, but so far one team is swinging it and one team is not.
November 2, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Plenty of ballgame left, but so far one team is swinging it and one team is not.
According to Toronto demographic data for 2025 (which, to be fair, I found on a real estate website and can't be 1000% confident in), approximately 42.9% of the city is under 35.
Tonight, a huge chunk of the city might see something they have no memory of seeing before.
Tonight, a huge chunk of the city might see something they have no memory of seeing before.
October 31, 2025 at 11:55 PM
According to Toronto demographic data for 2025 (which, to be fair, I found on a real estate website and can't be 1000% confident in), approximately 42.9% of the city is under 35.
Tonight, a huge chunk of the city might see something they have no memory of seeing before.
Tonight, a huge chunk of the city might see something they have no memory of seeing before.
The Blue Jays have not locked this thing up, but I think these odds (which are already a bit surreal) sell their advantage short.
If you believe they are a 50-50 bet in any game (which seems fair given the home-field advantage and how well they've performed), that'd give them a 75% shot.
If you believe they are a 50-50 bet in any game (which seems fair given the home-field advantage and how well they've performed), that'd give them a 75% shot.
October 30, 2025 at 10:38 AM
The Blue Jays have not locked this thing up, but I think these odds (which are already a bit surreal) sell their advantage short.
If you believe they are a 50-50 bet in any game (which seems fair given the home-field advantage and how well they've performed), that'd give them a 75% shot.
If you believe they are a 50-50 bet in any game (which seems fair given the home-field advantage and how well they've performed), that'd give them a 75% shot.
Shane Bieber faced a red-hot Shohei Ohtani three times tonight, struck him out twice, and gave him absolutely nothing to hit.
October 29, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Shane Bieber faced a red-hot Shohei Ohtani three times tonight, struck him out twice, and gave him absolutely nothing to hit.
Shane Bieber has allowed a couple of walks, but he's also not making many mistakes in the zone.
He hasn't been efficient, but he's also been on the corners, which has helped him avoid the knockout punches.
He hasn't been efficient, but he's also been on the corners, which has helped him avoid the knockout punches.
October 29, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Shane Bieber has allowed a couple of walks, but he's also not making many mistakes in the zone.
He hasn't been efficient, but he's also been on the corners, which has helped him avoid the knockout punches.
He hasn't been efficient, but he's also been on the corners, which has helped him avoid the knockout punches.
Sometimes, as a pitcher, you don't make any mistakes, the other guy is just too good.
Shohei Ohtani is a monster.
Shohei Ohtani is a monster.
October 28, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Sometimes, as a pitcher, you don't make any mistakes, the other guy is just too good.
Shohei Ohtani is a monster.
Shohei Ohtani is a monster.
Not sure how much to trust what Twitter says is trending these days, but it's clear what folks are thinking about at the moment.
October 28, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Not sure how much to trust what Twitter says is trending these days, but it's clear what folks are thinking about at the moment.
Will Smith deserves credit for the damage he's done tonight, it's not like Gausman fed him meatballs.
October 26, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Will Smith deserves credit for the damage he's done tonight, it's not like Gausman fed him meatballs.
There were so many more important things than this last night, but I think we oughta give Chris Bassitt some credit for his incredible job giving the Dodgers nothing to hit.
He's looked strong in relief.
He's looked strong in relief.
October 25, 2025 at 5:18 PM
There were so many more important things than this last night, but I think we oughta give Chris Bassitt some credit for his incredible job giving the Dodgers nothing to hit.
He's looked strong in relief.
He's looked strong in relief.
The Toronto Blue Jays will wake up this morning with better than coin flip odds of winning the World Series.
October 25, 2025 at 9:31 AM
The Toronto Blue Jays will wake up this morning with better than coin flip odds of winning the World Series.
The latest from @mikepetriello.bsky.social on what the Blue Jays are doing offensively is worth a read: mlb.com/news/explainin…
October 24, 2025 at 2:56 PM
The latest from @mikepetriello.bsky.social on what the Blue Jays are doing offensively is worth a read: mlb.com/news/explainin…
One guy I think could pop in GM1 is Alejandro Kirk.
No hitter had a higher run value per 100 changeups seen in 2025, and Snell's big adjustment in the playoffs is upping his change usage.
(Varsho is second in this category, but Snell is more likely to feed him breaking balls).
No hitter had a higher run value per 100 changeups seen in 2025, and Snell's big adjustment in the playoffs is upping his change usage.
(Varsho is second in this category, but Snell is more likely to feed him breaking balls).
October 24, 2025 at 1:32 PM
One guy I think could pop in GM1 is Alejandro Kirk.
No hitter had a higher run value per 100 changeups seen in 2025, and Snell's big adjustment in the playoffs is upping his change usage.
(Varsho is second in this category, but Snell is more likely to feed him breaking balls).
No hitter had a higher run value per 100 changeups seen in 2025, and Snell's big adjustment in the playoffs is upping his change usage.
(Varsho is second in this category, but Snell is more likely to feed him breaking balls).
Roki Sasaki facing Toronto after rejecting the Blue Jays is a story, but that ended up as a positive for TOR (in 2025).
Unlikely that the Blue Jays win the AL East, avoid the dreaded wild-card round, and get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs without Myles Straw.
Unlikely that the Blue Jays win the AL East, avoid the dreaded wild-card round, and get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs without Myles Straw.
October 24, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Roki Sasaki facing Toronto after rejecting the Blue Jays is a story, but that ended up as a positive for TOR (in 2025).
Unlikely that the Blue Jays win the AL East, avoid the dreaded wild-card round, and get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs without Myles Straw.
Unlikely that the Blue Jays win the AL East, avoid the dreaded wild-card round, and get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs without Myles Straw.
If you're thinking this playoff run is the best Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has ever looked, you're not far wrong.
Vladdy has played 975 regular-season games, and his wRC+ has only spiked above his postseason number (302) a couple of times in 10-game stretches — all in mid-2024.
Vladdy has played 975 regular-season games, and his wRC+ has only spiked above his postseason number (302) a couple of times in 10-game stretches — all in mid-2024.
October 20, 2025 at 12:51 PM
If you're thinking this playoff run is the best Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has ever looked, you're not far wrong.
Vladdy has played 975 regular-season games, and his wRC+ has only spiked above his postseason number (302) a couple of times in 10-game stretches — all in mid-2024.
Vladdy has played 975 regular-season games, and his wRC+ has only spiked above his postseason number (302) a couple of times in 10-game stretches — all in mid-2024.
TIL that thanks to Baseball-Reference's extremely odd criteria to qualify for career postseason rate stats (40 PA or 18 BB+ hits), Colby Rasmus is the all-time playoff leader in SLG (1.038) and OPS (1.610).
No one else is even close.
No one else is even close.
October 17, 2025 at 8:19 PM
TIL that thanks to Baseball-Reference's extremely odd criteria to qualify for career postseason rate stats (40 PA or 18 BB+ hits), Colby Rasmus is the all-time playoff leader in SLG (1.038) and OPS (1.610).
No one else is even close.
No one else is even close.
Mason Fluharty got about as little of the strike zone as humanly possible on that K of Volpe... but that is a strike.
October 8, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Mason Fluharty got about as little of the strike zone as humanly possible on that K of Volpe... but that is a strike.
I think a lot of folks are treating Game 4 as an inevitable NYY win, but while they have the edge, FanGraphs sees it as essentially a coin flip.
As intimidating as Cam Schlittler seems, it's worth remembering the Blue Jays have scored 6 runs against him in 6.2 IP this season.
As intimidating as Cam Schlittler seems, it's worth remembering the Blue Jays have scored 6 runs against him in 6.2 IP this season.
October 8, 2025 at 12:05 PM
I think a lot of folks are treating Game 4 as an inevitable NYY win, but while they have the edge, FanGraphs sees it as essentially a coin flip.
As intimidating as Cam Schlittler seems, it's worth remembering the Blue Jays have scored 6 runs against him in 6.2 IP this season.
As intimidating as Cam Schlittler seems, it's worth remembering the Blue Jays have scored 6 runs against him in 6.2 IP this season.
Extremely advanced statistical comparison of the Blue Jays and Yankees lineups through 13 innings:
October 5, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Extremely advanced statistical comparison of the Blue Jays and Yankees lineups through 13 innings:
Probably won't be consequential, but calling the fifth pitch a ball here to take a walk away from Santander is brutal.
October 4, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Probably won't be consequential, but calling the fifth pitch a ball here to take a walk away from Santander is brutal.
On May 7, the Blue Jays' playoff odds dropped as low as 22.6%.
In their next 120 games, their win percentage was .617, and now they're in.
In their next 120 games, their win percentage was .617, and now they're in.
September 21, 2025 at 9:01 PM
On May 7, the Blue Jays' playoff odds dropped as low as 22.6%.
In their next 120 games, their win percentage was .617, and now they're in.
In their next 120 games, their win percentage was .617, and now they're in.
With today's win, FanGraphs is listing the Blue Jays' playoff odds at 100.0% for the first time this season.
That doesn't mean reaching the postseason is certain even if they lose every game, but missing is so unlikely that the possibility is now a rounding error.
That doesn't mean reaching the postseason is certain even if they lose every game, but missing is so unlikely that the possibility is now a rounding error.
September 11, 2025 at 10:13 PM
With today's win, FanGraphs is listing the Blue Jays' playoff odds at 100.0% for the first time this season.
That doesn't mean reaching the postseason is certain even if they lose every game, but missing is so unlikely that the possibility is now a rounding error.
That doesn't mean reaching the postseason is certain even if they lose every game, but missing is so unlikely that the possibility is now a rounding error.
Vladdy is locked in right now. This is simply impossible for the vast majority of MLB hitters.
September 7, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Vladdy is locked in right now. This is simply impossible for the vast majority of MLB hitters.
When Tommy Nance entered this game, the Blue Jays' win probability was 41% and now it sits at 92%.
That's not all him, but he did a lot to turn the tide.
That's not all him, but he did a lot to turn the tide.
August 31, 2025 at 7:31 PM
When Tommy Nance entered this game, the Blue Jays' win probability was 41% and now it sits at 92%.
That's not all him, but he did a lot to turn the tide.
That's not all him, but he did a lot to turn the tide.
Not only did Tommy Nance escape a massive jam, his strikeout of Andrew Vaughn was flawless.
August 31, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Not only did Tommy Nance escape a massive jam, his strikeout of Andrew Vaughn was flawless.