Nate Silver Tweets
@natesilver538x.bsky.social
Automatically reposting Nate Silver Tweets, DM if you are Nate and you want this account
@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
@NateSilver538
New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
Busy week at the newsletter ahead, but I figured we’d get the second half of SBSQ published before we invade Greenland or something. Here's why Drake Maye, not Matt Stafford, should be MVP.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
SBSQ #28b: Maye vs. Stafford and Yelp vs. Google
Plus, why the College Football Playoff selection process is intrinsically broken.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Busy week at the newsletter ahead, but I figured we’d get the second half of SBSQ published before we invade Greenland or something. Here's why Drake Maye, not Matt Stafford, should be MVP.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp
Democratic primary draft with @ClareMalone and @galendruke! 1. (Galen) Gavin 2. (Nate) AOC 3. (Clare) Mayor Pete FYI, I'd probably also have taken Newsom #1 if I'd had the top pick. These are my predictions of who Ds will like, not who I personally think is most electable.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Democratic primary draft with @ClareMalone and @galendruke! 1. (Galen) Gavin 2. (Nate) AOC 3. (Clare) Mayor Pete FYI, I'd probably also have taken Newsom #1 if I'd had the top pick. These are my predictions of who Ds will like, not who I personally think is most electable.
This week's ELWAY update is ready + some quick commentary on the impact of the Nix injury and other things. Worth noting that of the 4 remaining playoff teams, really only Seattle played especially well last week.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
ELWAY NFL team projections
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
This week's ELWAY update is ready + some quick commentary on the impact of the Nix injury and other things. Worth noting that of the 4 remaining playoff teams, really only Seattle played especially well last week.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds
QBERT update for the week. That was a pretty darned mediocre week of quarterbacking. And now the guy who was probably most consistent last week from start to finish is out for the year.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
QBERT NFL Quarterback Ratings
Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:34 AM
QBERT update for the week. That was a pretty darned mediocre week of quarterbacking. And now the guy who was probably most consistent last week from start to finish is out for the year.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings
I'll be doing a S*bstack Live with @mattyglesias at 1PM today where we'll talk about what Trump's 2nd term looks like one year in. Should be a fun conversation, come join us on your lunch break!
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
I'll be doing a S*bstack Live with @mattyglesias at 1PM today where we'll talk about what Trump's 2nd term looks like one year in. Should be a fun conversation, come join us on your lunch break!
I certainly have lots of critiques of the libs. But with noteworthy consistency, “MAGA intellectuals” are either not MAGA or not intellectual. Wouldn't be the worst thing to have a conservative movement that isn’t so bootlicker-y.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
I certainly have lots of critiques of the libs. But with noteworthy consistency, “MAGA intellectuals” are either not MAGA or not intellectual. Wouldn't be the worst thing to have a conservative movement that isn’t so bootlicker-y.
Knicks are a good, not great, team, sometimes a slump is just short-term variance in luck or "form", could be talked into certain moves but there are dangers in overreacting, especially when you're already fairly pot-committed and don't have many chips left behind anyway.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
Knicks are a good, not great, team, sometimes a slump is just short-term variance in luck or "form", could be talked into certain moves but there are dangers in overreacting, especially when you're already fairly pot-committed and don't have many chips left behind anyway.
It's the difference between "WE ARE IN AN ACUTE CRISIS RIGHT NOW! AND ON THE BRINK OF AN AUTHORITARIAN TAKEOVER!!!" and "yeah, this shit's bad, but Trump's unpopular, he chickens out a lot, and at least the economy is OK, hopefully Democrats win in 2026/28".
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
It's the difference between "WE ARE IN AN ACUTE CRISIS RIGHT NOW! AND ON THE BRINK OF AN AUTHORITARIAN TAKEOVER!!!" and "yeah, this shit's bad, but Trump's unpopular, he chickens out a lot, and at least the economy is OK, hopefully Democrats win in 2026/28".
Although the NYT takes a broader overall outlook, from 2016 through 2024, the Post ran about evenly with the NYT in mindshare for American politics coverage, as measured by incoming links to @memeorandum. Now it suddenly has only about 1/3 as much influence.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
Although the NYT takes a broader overall outlook, from 2016 through 2024, the Post ran about evenly with the NYT in mindshare for American politics coverage, as measured by incoming links to @memeorandum. Now it suddenly has only about 1/3 as much influence.
Repost by @natesilver538 from @emckowndawson:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:33 AM
Repost by @natesilver538 from @emckowndawson:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls
Approval on immigration had been a comparative bright spot for Trump. But there has been a persistent decline over the past few months and today almost certainly makes that worse. He's losing the normies not just the libs.
February 3, 2026 at 4:32 AM
Approval on immigration had been a comparative bright spot for Trump. But there has been a persistent decline over the past few months and today almost certainly makes that worse. He's losing the normies not just the libs.
The rest of the picks plus lots of commentary here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
2028 Democratic primary draft #2
Plus, more commentary on Minneapolis from my live show with Galen Druke and Clare Malone.
www.natesilver.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:32 AM
The rest of the picks plus lots of commentary here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2
Our generic ballot tracker just launched! Currently D +5.3. That margin has been slowly but steadily growing over time. Would very likely be enough for them to take the House. Adding another 2-3 points would considerably improve their chances in the Senate.
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
Our generic ballot tracker just launched! Currently D +5.3. That margin has been slowly but steadily growing over time. Would very likely be enough for them to take the House. Adding another 2-3 points would considerably improve their chances in the Senate.
Just a quick newsletter today on the sad state of the Washington Post. This chart tells the story.
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
Just a quick newsletter today on the sad state of the Washington Post. This chart tells the story.
Just a huge gap in attitudes right now among various factions of Democrats between being on "wartime footing" versus "peacetime footing".
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
Just a huge gap in attitudes right now among various factions of Democrats between being on "wartime footing" versus "peacetime footing".
Since gamblers often complain about bad beats just want to state for the record that being heavy on Denver yesterday was whatever the opposite of a bad beat is.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
Since gamblers often complain about bad beats just want to state for the record that being heavy on Denver yesterday was whatever the opposite of a bad beat is.
I was very curious what QBERT would do with Maye's start, and it thought he was actually pretty good. 96.9 rating for the game, average is 80. Huge credit for his rushing performance and heavy adjustments for facing a really good defense on the road in terrible weather.
February 3, 2026 at 4:31 AM
I was very curious what QBERT would do with Maye's start, and it thought he was actually pretty good. 96.9 rating for the game, average is 80. Huge credit for his rushing performance and heavy adjustments for facing a really good defense on the road in terrible weather.
Repost by @natesilver538 from @emckowndawson: The Silver Bulletin generic ballot average is out! As of today, we have Democrats leading by 5.3 points.
February 3, 2026 at 4:30 AM
Repost by @natesilver538 from @emckowndawson: The Silver Bulletin generic ballot average is out! As of today, we have Democrats leading by 5.3 points.
Increasingly American politics is just everyone fulfilling the most cynical predictions about their behavior.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:30 AM
Increasingly American politics is just everyone fulfilling the most cynical predictions about their behavior.
This might be a romantic view actually voters are a lot smarter than JD Vance and Stephen Miller think they are. They didn't get away with this gaslighting in the Renee Good case and now they're trying it again.
February 3, 2026 at 4:30 AM
This might be a romantic view actually voters are a lot smarter than JD Vance and Stephen Miller think they are. They didn't get away with this gaslighting in the Renee Good case and now they're trying it again.
Basically the Tyrese 3 against the Knicks but football.
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:30 AM
Basically the Tyrese 3 against the Knicks but football.
Would you do this if you're the Knicks? Checks out in trade machine.
February 3, 2026 at 4:29 AM
Would you do this if you're the Knicks? Checks out in trade machine.
Also, some restaurant selection tips. This one is kind of important if using Yelp/Google/etc.
February 3, 2026 at 4:29 AM
Also, some restaurant selection tips. This one is kind of important if using Yelp/Google/etc.
Literally 2 hours apart
February 3, 2026 at 4:29 AM
Literally 2 hours apart
Heavy overlap with the ones who were on the tariff train.
https://nitter.net/jordanschneider/status/2015580135211127191
https://nitter.net/jordanschneider/status/2015580135211127191
nitter.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:29 AM
Heavy overlap with the ones who were on the tariff train.
https://nitter.net/jordanschneider/status/2015580135211127191
https://nitter.net/jordanschneider/status/2015580135211127191