it's just about being realistic about what the scope of impact is. if ICE arrests 30,000 each month, and habeas can free 282 in a few months, then we're talking about addressing less than 1% of the problem. i'm doing it myself and obviously think it's worthwhile; it's just about analytic clarity

So, I'm doing habeas cases, they matter tremendously to the person you get out and their loved ones, but even without the 9 robed fascists on the supreme court, there's simply no way to meaningfully fight what's happening big picture through the courts. It's not the main front in this war.

(And this is a daily occurrence).

Even when ICE doesn't do that kind of hostage negotiation abuse shit, they have a vast network of detention centers they can transfer people to—a process that is itself cruel and results in people being isolated from community, legal support, family.

ICE officers get bonuses each time they bully someone into giving up rights & "self-deporting." I literally just got a call from someone kidnapped yesterday, who was told her family would also be arrested UNLESS they brought in her passport & she self-deported. Mind-bendingly cruel+abusive behavior.

And in theory someone can still fight deportation from detention, but in reality because ICE can illegally kidnap people, they can control how their case goes generally using their vast caging capacity and utter contempt for "due process" (not that DP is so great, but its absence is...notable).

So basically, the situation is that if someone wins the lottery and gets a habeas lawyer, they can probably win their freedom from illegal caging. But for the other 30,000 kidnapped each month (remember, there are only 282 who have won these cases so far that we know of), they're screwed.

(It's slightly more complicated than that, but generally they can't)

Why not a class action, you say? Isn't that what SCOTUS said to do in CASA when they killed universal injunctions?

Well no. As I said on @makcapitalism.bsky.social, the Supreme Court recently made clear people illegally kidnapped by ICE can't do class actions (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garland...).

But habeas cases take a ton of work, and most immigration lawyers don't do habeas. (I just got trained in habeas for free through NIHI, shoutout, look for future trainings from them: cardozo.yu.edu/form/nihi-ny...).

So the vast, vast majority of people being illegally kidnapped don't get out.

But if you zoom out the problem is obvious.

Since ICE made up this rule, it has been arresting approximately 30,000 people/month (austinkocher.substack.com/p/number-of-...).

Many (most?) of these folks are being illegally subjected to mandatory detention. That means thousands could win habeas.

Those numbers are from a federal court decision yesterday.

Here's the decision: drive.google.com/file/d/1v8Bn...

And the appendix listing all 288 cases: drive.google.com/file/d/1g10f...

Sounds good right? ICE is doing lawless stuff, & judges (98% of them!) are striking it down & releasing people.