Tymofiy Mylovanov
@mylovanov.bsky.social
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
If that miracle doesn't come, a reckoning awaits. Russia drained its economy, pushed neutral states into NATO, subordinated itself to China, shredded its own future generation on the battlefield.
Sooner or later Russians will ask: “For what?” And that moment is dangerous. 8X
Sooner or later Russians will ask: “For what?” And that moment is dangerous. 8X
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
If that miracle doesn't come, a reckoning awaits. Russia drained its economy, pushed neutral states into NATO, subordinated itself to China, shredded its own future generation on the battlefield.
Sooner or later Russians will ask: “For what?” And that moment is dangerous. 8X
Sooner or later Russians will ask: “For what?” And that moment is dangerous. 8X
So Putin keeps fighting, hoping something breaks: a Ukrainian collapse, a manpower crisis, a political shock in Europe or Washington.
History shows leaders trapped in unwinnable wars cling on, waiting for a miracle that never comes. 7/
History shows leaders trapped in unwinnable wars cling on, waiting for a miracle that never comes. 7/
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
So Putin keeps fighting, hoping something breaks: a Ukrainian collapse, a manpower crisis, a political shock in Europe or Washington.
History shows leaders trapped in unwinnable wars cling on, waiting for a miracle that never comes. 7/
History shows leaders trapped in unwinnable wars cling on, waiting for a miracle that never comes. 7/
Putin hoped Trump would tilt the balance. Early 2025 showed that risk when Trump briefly pushed a “bad peace” by threatening to cut intelligence and air defence.
But Europe now pays Ukraine’s bills, and Trump fears looking like the man who “gave Ukraine to Putin.” 6/
But Europe now pays Ukraine’s bills, and Trump fears looking like the man who “gave Ukraine to Putin.” 6/
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Putin hoped Trump would tilt the balance. Early 2025 showed that risk when Trump briefly pushed a “bad peace” by threatening to cut intelligence and air defence.
But Europe now pays Ukraine’s bills, and Trump fears looking like the man who “gave Ukraine to Putin.” 6/
But Europe now pays Ukraine’s bills, and Trump fears looking like the man who “gave Ukraine to Putin.” 6/
Ukraine’s deep strikes inside Russia are more consequential.
As Ukraine hits refineries and airports while Russia’s economy slows and budgets tighten, everyday Russians face the war’s cost directly – not as propaganda, but in fuel, flights, and stability. 5/
As Ukraine hits refineries and airports while Russia’s economy slows and budgets tighten, everyday Russians face the war’s cost directly – not as propaganda, but in fuel, flights, and stability. 5/
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Ukraine’s deep strikes inside Russia are more consequential.
As Ukraine hits refineries and airports while Russia’s economy slows and budgets tighten, everyday Russians face the war’s cost directly – not as propaganda, but in fuel, flights, and stability. 5/
As Ukraine hits refineries and airports while Russia’s economy slows and budgets tighten, everyday Russians face the war’s cost directly – not as propaganda, but in fuel, flights, and stability. 5/
Unable to beat Ukraine’s army, Putin hits cities and power plants. He wants to freeze Ukrainians and break morale.
History shows bombing civilians rarely breaks nations, every strike only reinforces why Ukrainians cannot afford a Russian victory. 4/
History shows bombing civilians rarely breaks nations, every strike only reinforces why Ukrainians cannot afford a Russian victory. 4/
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Unable to beat Ukraine’s army, Putin hits cities and power plants. He wants to freeze Ukrainians and break morale.
History shows bombing civilians rarely breaks nations, every strike only reinforces why Ukrainians cannot afford a Russian victory. 4/
History shows bombing civilians rarely breaks nations, every strike only reinforces why Ukrainians cannot afford a Russian victory. 4/
At this pace it would take 5 more years for Russia to occupy the 4 regions it claims as its own. If the 2025 casualty rate continues, total Russian losses could reach nearly 4M.
Every pointless assault today deepens tomorrow’s political crisis inside Russia. 3/
Every pointless assault today deepens tomorrow’s political crisis inside Russia. 3/
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
At this pace it would take 5 more years for Russia to occupy the 4 regions it claims as its own. If the 2025 casualty rate continues, total Russian losses could reach nearly 4M.
Every pointless assault today deepens tomorrow’s political crisis inside Russia. 3/
Every pointless assault today deepens tomorrow’s political crisis inside Russia. 3/
His 2025 summer offensive (the third and largest) — failed.
Russia sends small assault groups into kill zones, if a few break through, they cannot mass without being annihilated.
After tens of thousands of losses, Russia did not seize a single major city this year. 2/
Russia sends small assault groups into kill zones, if a few break through, they cannot mass without being annihilated.
After tens of thousands of losses, Russia did not seize a single major city this year. 2/
November 20, 2025 at 10:41 PM
His 2025 summer offensive (the third and largest) — failed.
Russia sends small assault groups into kill zones, if a few break through, they cannot mass without being annihilated.
After tens of thousands of losses, Russia did not seize a single major city this year. 2/
Russia sends small assault groups into kill zones, if a few break through, they cannot mass without being annihilated.
After tens of thousands of losses, Russia did not seize a single major city this year. 2/
If discounts on Russian crude widen, revenues could fall to $149B in 2025 and $67B in 2026.
With weak sanctions enforcement, revenues could instead rise to $162B in 2025 and $146B in 2026. 12X
With weak sanctions enforcement, revenues could instead rise to $162B in 2025 and $146B in 2026. 12X
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
If discounts on Russian crude widen, revenues could fall to $149B in 2025 and $67B in 2026.
With weak sanctions enforcement, revenues could instead rise to $162B in 2025 and $146B in 2026. 12X
With weak sanctions enforcement, revenues could instead rise to $162B in 2025 and $146B in 2026. 12X
KSE forecasts Russia’s oil revenues at $158B in 2025 and $131B in 2026. This is a notable decline from $189B in 2024. 11/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
KSE forecasts Russia’s oil revenues at $158B in 2025 and $131B in 2026. This is a notable decline from $189B in 2024. 11/
All major Russian crude grades traded above the EU price cap in September. Urals averaged $55 per barrel, about $8 above the cap, and ESPO averaged $62.8 per barrel. 10/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
All major Russian crude grades traded above the EU price cap in September. Urals averaged $55 per barrel, about $8 above the cap, and ESPO averaged $62.8 per barrel. 10/
Western countries have sanctioned 610 tankers involved in Russian oil transport.
Despite the restrictions, 109 sanctioned vessels continued loading in Russian ports in September, showing weak enforcement. 9/
Despite the restrictions, 109 sanctioned vessels continued loading in Russian ports in September, showing weak enforcement. 9/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Western countries have sanctioned 610 tankers involved in Russian oil transport.
Despite the restrictions, 109 sanctioned vessels continued loading in Russian ports in September, showing weak enforcement. 9/
Despite the restrictions, 109 sanctioned vessels continued loading in Russian ports in September, showing weak enforcement. 9/
India remained the largest buyer of Russian crude with imports of 1.6M barrels per day. Turkey was the leading importer of Russian oil products with 424K barrels per day. 8/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
India remained the largest buyer of Russian crude with imports of 1.6M barrels per day. Turkey was the leading importer of Russian oil products with 424K barrels per day. 8/
Russia used 153 shadow-fleet tankers in September for crude and oil product shipments. Nearly 89% of these vessels were over 15 years old, and ship-to-ship transfers continued widely. 7/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Russia used 153 shadow-fleet tankers in September for crude and oil product shipments. Nearly 89% of these vessels were over 15 years old, and ship-to-ship transfers continued widely. 7/
Refinery outages had limited impact on European market prices. Diesel prices in Northwest Europe fell by $4.2 per barrel and fuel oil prices fell by $6.2 per barrel compared to July. 6/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Refinery outages had limited impact on European market prices. Diesel prices in Northwest Europe fell by $4.2 per barrel and fuel oil prices fell by $6.2 per barrel compared to July. 6/
Oil product exports fell by 170K barrels per day, reaching the lowest level in a decade. At the same time, crude oil exports increased by 370K barrels per day, the highest level since May 2023. 5/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Oil product exports fell by 170K barrels per day, reaching the lowest level in a decade. At the same time, crude oil exports increased by 370K barrels per day, the highest level since May 2023. 5/
Major Russian refineries sharply cut throughput, with one facility shutting down completely.
Novo-Ufimsky stopped, Ryazan cut production by 80%, Volgograd by 58%, Saratov by 34%, and Kirishi reduced diesel output by 16%. 4/
Novo-Ufimsky stopped, Ryazan cut production by 80%, Volgograd by 58%, Saratov by 34%, and Kirishi reduced diesel output by 16%. 4/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Major Russian refineries sharply cut throughput, with one facility shutting down completely.
Novo-Ufimsky stopped, Ryazan cut production by 80%, Volgograd by 58%, Saratov by 34%, and Kirishi reduced diesel output by 16%. 4/
Novo-Ufimsky stopped, Ryazan cut production by 80%, Volgograd by 58%, Saratov by 34%, and Kirishi reduced diesel output by 16%. 4/
Russian refinery runs dropped by about 800K barrels per day in October, reaching 4.6M barrels per day.
The decline was caused by continued drone attacks that forced Rosneft to reduce processing volumes by 22% compared to July. 3/
The decline was caused by continued drone attacks that forced Rosneft to reduce processing volumes by 22% compared to July. 3/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Russian refinery runs dropped by about 800K barrels per day in October, reaching 4.6M barrels per day.
The decline was caused by continued drone attacks that forced Rosneft to reduce processing volumes by 22% compared to July. 3/
The decline was caused by continued drone attacks that forced Rosneft to reduce processing volumes by 22% compared to July. 3/
Seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% compared to the previous month. Ships covered by international insurance carried only 26% of crude exports and 81% of oil product exports. 2/
November 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% compared to the previous month. Ships covered by international insurance carried only 26% of crude exports and 81% of oil product exports. 2/
In Kyiv, Maryna Mytsiuk, 27, trains at a shooting range, waiting for deployment.
A folklore scholar who speaks Japanese, she studied at a military university to earn a combat role.
“I see women my age getting married and having kids. But there’s no turning back now.” 8X
A folklore scholar who speaks Japanese, she studied at a military university to earn a combat role.
“I see women my age getting married and having kids. But there’s no turning back now.” 8X
November 15, 2025 at 1:36 AM
In Kyiv, Maryna Mytsiuk, 27, trains at a shooting range, waiting for deployment.
A folklore scholar who speaks Japanese, she studied at a military university to earn a combat role.
“I see women my age getting married and having kids. But there’s no turning back now.” 8X
A folklore scholar who speaks Japanese, she studied at a military university to earn a combat role.
“I see women my age getting married and having kids. But there’s no turning back now.” 8X
On the intelligence front, “Xena”, a veteran analyst, leads a unit that operates Ukraine’s naval drones — the same type that downed a Russian fighter jet in the Black Sea this year.
“We lure Russians out of their bases and hunt them. “Motivation keeps us alive.” 7/
“We lure Russians out of their bases and hunt them. “Motivation keeps us alive.” 7/
November 15, 2025 at 1:36 AM
On the intelligence front, “Xena”, a veteran analyst, leads a unit that operates Ukraine’s naval drones — the same type that downed a Russian fighter jet in the Black Sea this year.
“We lure Russians out of their bases and hunt them. “Motivation keeps us alive.” 7/
“We lure Russians out of their bases and hunt them. “Motivation keeps us alive.” 7/