Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
True, Biden was President then and ultimately over the US Marshals.
But despite Trump pushing the line in many cases, outright ongoing contempt is still not a line crossed (for either monetary judgments or releasing prisoners under habeas).
But despite Trump pushing the line in many cases, outright ongoing contempt is still not a line crossed (for either monetary judgments or releasing prisoners under habeas).
November 26, 2025 at 4:46 PM
True, Biden was President then and ultimately over the US Marshals.
But despite Trump pushing the line in many cases, outright ongoing contempt is still not a line crossed (for either monetary judgments or releasing prisoners under habeas).
But despite Trump pushing the line in many cases, outright ongoing contempt is still not a line crossed (for either monetary judgments or releasing prisoners under habeas).
When I looked deeply into this case, the $1 million contempt sanction was already deposited years ago in SDFL federal court. It had to be to not allow levies, garnishments, etc.
November 26, 2025 at 4:44 PM
When I looked deeply into this case, the $1 million contempt sanction was already deposited years ago in SDFL federal court. It had to be to not allow levies, garnishments, etc.
I’m gonna push against everybody going main character on this.
WSOP events in Vegas had many foreign players, so who knows. But in my personal experience, poker players in America are more right-wing in a Rogan-type way. Like crypto, it’s a zero-sum game among mainly men for money.
WSOP events in Vegas had many foreign players, so who knows. But in my personal experience, poker players in America are more right-wing in a Rogan-type way. Like crypto, it’s a zero-sum game among mainly men for money.
November 26, 2025 at 1:57 AM
I’m gonna push against everybody going main character on this.
WSOP events in Vegas had many foreign players, so who knows. But in my personal experience, poker players in America are more right-wing in a Rogan-type way. Like crypto, it’s a zero-sum game among mainly men for money.
WSOP events in Vegas had many foreign players, so who knows. But in my personal experience, poker players in America are more right-wing in a Rogan-type way. Like crypto, it’s a zero-sum game among mainly men for money.
Well, crypto is also just math. The poker world, as such (in terms of influencers and who I see playing at games) is very right-wing Musk/Rogan-esque similar to crypto.
November 26, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Well, crypto is also just math. The poker world, as such (in terms of influencers and who I see playing at games) is very right-wing Musk/Rogan-esque similar to crypto.
ACA does allow underwriting for smoking status. But it’s limited in its premium differential and it is behavior based.
November 25, 2025 at 9:35 PM
ACA does allow underwriting for smoking status. But it’s limited in its premium differential and it is behavior based.
A layperson, under the pressure of the moment, could definitely say “yes” to this question if the grand jurors only saw the three count indictment but trued billed two of the counts.
November 20, 2025 at 11:30 PM
A layperson, under the pressure of the moment, could definitely say “yes” to this question if the grand jurors only saw the three count indictment but trued billed two of the counts.
(From Biden admin but still left up). home.treasury.gov/news/feature...
November 20, 2025 at 11:21 PM
(From Biden admin but still left up). home.treasury.gov/news/feature...
Percentage of income to housing is like looking at houses per household. Given income underwriting for debt or rent, it will definitionally stay about the same level.
Regardless or worse living conditions, number of homeless, number not having kids, etc.
Regardless or worse living conditions, number of homeless, number not having kids, etc.
November 20, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Percentage of income to housing is like looking at houses per household. Given income underwriting for debt or rent, it will definitionally stay about the same level.
Regardless or worse living conditions, number of homeless, number not having kids, etc.
Regardless or worse living conditions, number of homeless, number not having kids, etc.
I think she wrote “count 1 only“ in a different pen from the foreperson after the foreperson. She then realized or was told that was wrong. So she drafted the clean indictment.
What I don’t get (as a non-lawyer) was how the “count 1 only” indictment then got to the judge/PACER.
What I don’t get (as a non-lawyer) was how the “count 1 only” indictment then got to the judge/PACER.
November 19, 2025 at 5:52 PM
I think she wrote “count 1 only“ in a different pen from the foreperson after the foreperson. She then realized or was told that was wrong. So she drafted the clean indictment.
What I don’t get (as a non-lawyer) was how the “count 1 only” indictment then got to the judge/PACER.
What I don’t get (as a non-lawyer) was how the “count 1 only” indictment then got to the judge/PACER.
They need to figure out the rule against perpetuities though.
November 19, 2025 at 3:58 AM
They need to figure out the rule against perpetuities though.
There’s bending over one can do about compositional effects. Or argue how the continued decline in male prime-age emp/pop was all by choice. I don’t really buy it. The overall average things looking good in a skewed distribution doesn’t argue against the skewness being bad.
November 17, 2025 at 8:32 PM
There’s bending over one can do about compositional effects. Or argue how the continued decline in male prime-age emp/pop was all by choice. I don’t really buy it. The overall average things looking good in a skewed distribution doesn’t argue against the skewness being bad.
It seems like a median versus mean issue here.
One looks at the median series and it looks awful even if one doesn’t give credence to the famous EPI graph (I don’t). Basically median wages say *all* increased comp 1980 to 2015 went to health care.
One looks at the median series and it looks awful even if one doesn’t give credence to the famous EPI graph (I don’t). Basically median wages say *all* increased comp 1980 to 2015 went to health care.
November 17, 2025 at 8:28 PM
It seems like a median versus mean issue here.
One looks at the median series and it looks awful even if one doesn’t give credence to the famous EPI graph (I don’t). Basically median wages say *all* increased comp 1980 to 2015 went to health care.
One looks at the median series and it looks awful even if one doesn’t give credence to the famous EPI graph (I don’t). Basically median wages say *all* increased comp 1980 to 2015 went to health care.
After 35 years of stagnation, we “fixed” it as labor markets became tighter. But the annualized growth in median wage from 1980 to 2025 is still just 0.25%.
Male prime age emp/pop also declined in a series of slack labor matkets.
Male prime age emp/pop also declined in a series of slack labor matkets.
November 17, 2025 at 8:23 PM
After 35 years of stagnation, we “fixed” it as labor markets became tighter. But the annualized growth in median wage from 1980 to 2025 is still just 0.25%.
Male prime age emp/pop also declined in a series of slack labor matkets.
Male prime age emp/pop also declined in a series of slack labor matkets.
Adults per Home did have a long-term decline up to 2008. Then it went back up to 1990 levels.
Much of the higher consumption is working more (having both partners work). The median real wage per week worked was lower or flat from 1980 to 2015.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES12...
Much of the higher consumption is working more (having both partners work). The median real wage per week worked was lower or flat from 1980 to 2015.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES12...
Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over
Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over
fred.stlouisfed.org
November 17, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Adults per Home did have a long-term decline up to 2008. Then it went back up to 1990 levels.
Much of the higher consumption is working more (having both partners work). The median real wage per week worked was lower or flat from 1980 to 2015.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES12...
Much of the higher consumption is working more (having both partners work). The median real wage per week worked was lower or flat from 1980 to 2015.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES12...
The decision does quote Rehnquist saying the government can do exactly this (using poisoned 4th amd and attorney info to grand jury).
That seems like bad law.
That seems like bad law.
November 17, 2025 at 7:22 PM
The decision does quote Rehnquist saying the government can do exactly this (using poisoned 4th amd and attorney info to grand jury).
That seems like bad law.
That seems like bad law.
The percentage of income going to housing neglects consuming less housing (both having fewer kids to begin with and more adults per house).
CPI takes this into account and one has to kind of stretch to find significantly better median real wages, unlike pre-70s.
CPI takes this into account and one has to kind of stretch to find significantly better median real wages, unlike pre-70s.
November 17, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The percentage of income going to housing neglects consuming less housing (both having fewer kids to begin with and more adults per house).
CPI takes this into account and one has to kind of stretch to find significantly better median real wages, unlike pre-70s.
CPI takes this into account and one has to kind of stretch to find significantly better median real wages, unlike pre-70s.
With all these cases though (1914, 2000 and 2016), I wonder if a similar thing would have eventually happened. No Comey Letter and then Trump can still run for four years and win in 2020. Maybe he would be chastised, but I remember him hinting he wouldn’t have conceded in 2016.
November 17, 2025 at 7:21 AM
With all these cases though (1914, 2000 and 2016), I wonder if a similar thing would have eventually happened. No Comey Letter and then Trump can still run for four years and win in 2020. Maybe he would be chastised, but I remember him hinting he wouldn’t have conceded in 2016.
I feel like I’m a very anti-conspiracy person generally, but man I wonder if there’s something deeper over both Garland and Trump (ie over US gov generally) based on Acosta’s comments.
November 17, 2025 at 1:45 AM
I feel like I’m a very anti-conspiracy person generally, but man I wonder if there’s something deeper over both Garland and Trump (ie over US gov generally) based on Acosta’s comments.
I forget if Boies was the “hero“ or not of the movie. That, uh, didn’t age well.
November 17, 2025 at 1:37 AM
I forget if Boies was the “hero“ or not of the movie. That, uh, didn’t age well.
At least up to 2016, lower per-student state support in real terms explained 75% of tuition increases.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/fan...
fivethirtyeight.com/features/fan...
Fancy Dorms Aren’t The Main Reason Tuition Is Skyrocketing
In 2000, Temple University was primarily a commuter school. On-campus dorms could house fewer than 4,000 students out of a total student body of more than 30,00…
fivethirtyeight.com
November 11, 2025 at 4:51 AM
At least up to 2016, lower per-student state support in real terms explained 75% of tuition increases.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/fan...
fivethirtyeight.com/features/fan...
The thing is that CPI and PCE try to account for better health care, especially for new drugs and devices.
If median wages are deflated with the inflation metrics, they haven’t looked great. Some methods can get more wage growth, but they’re non-obvious. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
If median wages are deflated with the inflation metrics, they haven’t looked great. Some methods can get more wage growth, but they’re non-obvious. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
November 11, 2025 at 3:36 AM
The thing is that CPI and PCE try to account for better health care, especially for new drugs and devices.
If median wages are deflated with the inflation metrics, they haven’t looked great. Some methods can get more wage growth, but they’re non-obvious. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
If median wages are deflated with the inflation metrics, they haven’t looked great. Some methods can get more wage growth, but they’re non-obvious. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
Eisenhower used employer health insurance to diffuse moves for single-payer. The super-tax-friendly nature of employer paid insurance set us on the course today. www.npr.org/2025/02/27/1...
Health Insurance in America : Throughline
Millions of Americans depend on their jobs for health insurance. But that's not the case in many other wealthy countries. How did the U.S. end up with a system that's so expensive, yet leaves so many ...
www.npr.org
November 10, 2025 at 5:35 AM
Eisenhower used employer health insurance to diffuse moves for single-payer. The super-tax-friendly nature of employer paid insurance set us on the course today. www.npr.org/2025/02/27/1...
It’s in the Schrödinger area of true and not true: The trifecta in 2009-10 could have nuked, passed M4A, did incredible levels of taxation on billionaires, etc.
But Dems openly stating that wouldn’t have gotten to power in the years before.
But Dems openly stating that wouldn’t have gotten to power in the years before.
November 10, 2025 at 3:52 AM
It’s in the Schrödinger area of true and not true: The trifecta in 2009-10 could have nuked, passed M4A, did incredible levels of taxation on billionaires, etc.
But Dems openly stating that wouldn’t have gotten to power in the years before.
But Dems openly stating that wouldn’t have gotten to power in the years before.
The EBITDA targets are Adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based comp as well. So both the market-cap goals and the EBITDA goals can be gamed by issuing a lot of stock.
This reduces the percentage of the company in the awarded shares, but not necessarily the value if stock created=consideration.
This reduces the percentage of the company in the awarded shares, but not necessarily the value if stock created=consideration.
November 7, 2025 at 7:53 PM
The EBITDA targets are Adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based comp as well. So both the market-cap goals and the EBITDA goals can be gamed by issuing a lot of stock.
This reduces the percentage of the company in the awarded shares, but not necessarily the value if stock created=consideration.
This reduces the percentage of the company in the awarded shares, but not necessarily the value if stock created=consideration.
The 12 market cap milestones are always binding. The lowest market cap milestone is taken off the shelf first.
Operational milestones are vehicle deliveries, deliveries of FSD, deliveries of robotaxis, deliveries of bots and 8 EBITDA targets.
Operational milestones are vehicle deliveries, deliveries of FSD, deliveries of robotaxis, deliveries of bots and 8 EBITDA targets.
November 7, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The 12 market cap milestones are always binding. The lowest market cap milestone is taken off the shelf first.
Operational milestones are vehicle deliveries, deliveries of FSD, deliveries of robotaxis, deliveries of bots and 8 EBITDA targets.
Operational milestones are vehicle deliveries, deliveries of FSD, deliveries of robotaxis, deliveries of bots and 8 EBITDA targets.