@mwilbert.bsky.social
Yes, I think they want Starship to make Starlink more economic/more capable. But they aren't just spending money on the lift capability, but on the ancillary stuff required for Mars missions. That's a bunch of additional costs for a company whose revenue isn't currently that large.
November 25, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Yes, I think they want Starship to make Starlink more economic/more capable. But they aren't just spending money on the lift capability, but on the ancillary stuff required for Mars missions. That's a bunch of additional costs for a company whose revenue isn't currently that large.
Could be, but at this point it has such a dominant position in the satellite launch business that I don't imagine it's going away. Being private, we don't really know what the economics are, but they could improve them by ignoring Mars completely.
November 25, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Could be, but at this point it has such a dominant position in the satellite launch business that I don't imagine it's going away. Being private, we don't really know what the economics are, but they could improve them by ignoring Mars completely.
Of course I can't prove this, but my working theory is that he used to function better but decades of self-destructive behavior have eroded both his judgement and capability. I assume he'll still be very rich after Tesla implodes, and SpaceX isn't an AI play, but it won't be a happy time for him.
November 25, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Of course I can't prove this, but my working theory is that he used to function better but decades of self-destructive behavior have eroded both his judgement and capability. I assume he'll still be very rich after Tesla implodes, and SpaceX isn't an AI play, but it won't be a happy time for him.
Aside from the pre-existing issues with CoreWeave's business model, stronger competition for NVDA from Google TPU's is yet another risk. A risk people should have been thinking about before, but of course seeing it in action concentrates the mind.
November 25, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Aside from the pre-existing issues with CoreWeave's business model, stronger competition for NVDA from Google TPU's is yet another risk. A risk people should have been thinking about before, but of course seeing it in action concentrates the mind.
AI can be very popular and widely used and the space can still be significantly overpriced. To me, the question is what the margins end up being for the various players, and there are a lot of variables.
November 25, 2025 at 1:38 AM
AI can be very popular and widely used and the space can still be significantly overpriced. To me, the question is what the margins end up being for the various players, and there are a lot of variables.
It's a floor wax AND a dessert topping!
But yes, hard to manage a politics that at the same time condemns the existence of billionaires and is oriented to giving them control of everything.
But yes, hard to manage a politics that at the same time condemns the existence of billionaires and is oriented to giving them control of everything.
November 24, 2025 at 7:12 PM
It's a floor wax AND a dessert topping!
But yes, hard to manage a politics that at the same time condemns the existence of billionaires and is oriented to giving them control of everything.
But yes, hard to manage a politics that at the same time condemns the existence of billionaires and is oriented to giving them control of everything.
Maybe this will work, but I am skeptical they can scale this adequately before they run out of money. I'd call myself an early LLM/AI adopter, and I use AI constantly, but I'm not going to let agents do anything involving money for me for a long time, if ever. And Google's not going to do this?
November 24, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Maybe this will work, but I am skeptical they can scale this adequately before they run out of money. I'd call myself an early LLM/AI adopter, and I use AI constantly, but I'm not going to let agents do anything involving money for me for a long time, if ever. And Google's not going to do this?
It's a pain to get to on foot, but it's neat to see.
November 24, 2025 at 6:23 PM
It's a pain to get to on foot, but it's neat to see.
Or in this case, disservices.
This is simply a continuation of a trend that's been happening ever since the internet became widespread, but as they say, quantity has a quality all its own, and certainly there will be ever-increasing quantities.
This is simply a continuation of a trend that's been happening ever since the internet became widespread, but as they say, quantity has a quality all its own, and certainly there will be ever-increasing quantities.
November 24, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Or in this case, disservices.
This is simply a continuation of a trend that's been happening ever since the internet became widespread, but as they say, quantity has a quality all its own, and certainly there will be ever-increasing quantities.
This is simply a continuation of a trend that's been happening ever since the internet became widespread, but as they say, quantity has a quality all its own, and certainly there will be ever-increasing quantities.
I don't know whether I agree with this particular case, but whether I do or not, New York state never did anything to make this illegal after the Kelo decision ruled such takings constitutional.
I think there should be a high bar for a taking like this, but I don't think it should be impossible.
I think there should be a high bar for a taking like this, but I don't think it should be impossible.
November 24, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I don't know whether I agree with this particular case, but whether I do or not, New York state never did anything to make this illegal after the Kelo decision ruled such takings constitutional.
I think there should be a high bar for a taking like this, but I don't think it should be impossible.
I think there should be a high bar for a taking like this, but I don't think it should be impossible.
I don't think that's true, but in any case that is not a problem for me; I can evaluate it case-by-case regardless of intent. The problem is that I don't want to ingest low signal-to-noise data sources. I spend too much time processing information already, and people who emit nonsense waste my time.
November 24, 2025 at 4:39 PM
I don't think that's true, but in any case that is not a problem for me; I can evaluate it case-by-case regardless of intent. The problem is that I don't want to ingest low signal-to-noise data sources. I spend too much time processing information already, and people who emit nonsense waste my time.
I don't dislike Noah Smith as much as many on this platform seem to, but this was such a ridiculous take that I'm rethinking my position. In my opinion, he has a number of good ideas, but there's a limit to how much complete nonsense I'm willing to accept as an admixture.
November 24, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I don't dislike Noah Smith as much as many on this platform seem to, but this was such a ridiculous take that I'm rethinking my position. In my opinion, he has a number of good ideas, but there's a limit to how much complete nonsense I'm willing to accept as an admixture.
1) agree
2) it would be useful (and unlikely) to reach some kind of an agreement on what would constitute a minimally acceptable living standard. There's way too much "they have cell phones so they can't be poor" type discourse.
3) universal child care and health care would simplify this.
2) it would be useful (and unlikely) to reach some kind of an agreement on what would constitute a minimally acceptable living standard. There's way too much "they have cell phones so they can't be poor" type discourse.
3) universal child care and health care would simplify this.
November 24, 2025 at 4:23 PM
1) agree
2) it would be useful (and unlikely) to reach some kind of an agreement on what would constitute a minimally acceptable living standard. There's way too much "they have cell phones so they can't be poor" type discourse.
3) universal child care and health care would simplify this.
2) it would be useful (and unlikely) to reach some kind of an agreement on what would constitute a minimally acceptable living standard. There's way too much "they have cell phones so they can't be poor" type discourse.
3) universal child care and health care would simplify this.
In an educational context where the primary goal is learning stuff, of course it makes sense to do what maximizes learning. But that's not true in a work context--you have to balance employee development with labor cost and getting work done. Just what's needed to finish the task is often correct.
November 22, 2025 at 3:04 AM
In an educational context where the primary goal is learning stuff, of course it makes sense to do what maximizes learning. But that's not true in a work context--you have to balance employee development with labor cost and getting work done. Just what's needed to finish the task is often correct.
Right, but shipping water from the Mississippi might be easier than moving Tehran. Both seem hard.
November 21, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Right, but shipping water from the Mississippi might be easier than moving Tehran. Both seem hard.
Surprising it would be cheaper to relocate a giant city than to deal with the water problem.
November 21, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Surprising it would be cheaper to relocate a giant city than to deal with the water problem.
I suspect what's happening is that people's baseline expectations have changed over time, so I look at say 1980 or 2010 and they are low, just not quite as low as now, but people's calibration has changed. So It may still be meaningful locally, but cross-decades it's questionable.
November 21, 2025 at 3:24 PM
I suspect what's happening is that people's baseline expectations have changed over time, so I look at say 1980 or 2010 and they are low, just not quite as low as now, but people's calibration has changed. So It may still be meaningful locally, but cross-decades it's questionable.
How old is this series? I mean, I understand people are unhappy, but objectively economic conditions are nothing like as bad as say 2010. I feel like this is measuring something that isn't quite what it says it is measuring, or else people are horribly miscalibrated, which is probably true anyway.
November 21, 2025 at 3:08 PM
How old is this series? I mean, I understand people are unhappy, but objectively economic conditions are nothing like as bad as say 2010. I feel like this is measuring something that isn't quite what it says it is measuring, or else people are horribly miscalibrated, which is probably true anyway.
No one, that's why the only people on the other side of the bet are market makers who diversify over a huge number of such bets.
November 21, 2025 at 3:06 PM
No one, that's why the only people on the other side of the bet are market makers who diversify over a huge number of such bets.
People are imaginative, but I can't really see it and it would certainly be a very thin market. It's like a bespoke insurance policy, so I suppose there could be multiple market makers for bids, but there are no natural sellers of a parlay, they'd have to be in the business of selling them.
November 21, 2025 at 12:12 PM
People are imaginative, but I can't really see it and it would certainly be a very thin market. It's like a bespoke insurance policy, so I suppose there could be multiple market makers for bids, but there are no natural sellers of a parlay, they'd have to be in the business of selling them.
Or to rephrase, "the ... situation has developed not necessarily to our advantage"
November 21, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Or to rephrase, "the ... situation has developed not necessarily to our advantage"
Seems fairly impractical to move next-pitch type bets or weird parlays to exchanges, but I don't see what keeps standard bets that stay live for a bit from being mostly made in markets.
November 20, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Seems fairly impractical to move next-pitch type bets or weird parlays to exchanges, but I don't see what keeps standard bets that stay live for a bit from being mostly made in markets.
Saudi Arabia has a long history of terrible capital allocation. I remember 40 years ago or so, when they were busy trying to convince people (and spending money on the project) that they would become self-sufficient in wheat. They have wasted a large proportion of their oil revenue on nonsense.
November 20, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Saudi Arabia has a long history of terrible capital allocation. I remember 40 years ago or so, when they were busy trying to convince people (and spending money on the project) that they would become self-sufficient in wheat. They have wasted a large proportion of their oil revenue on nonsense.
I find it impossible to listen to them without my head exploding. I just look to see if there's any market reaction. I figure if they do say anything meaningful there'll be some commentary somewhere by someone with a higher degree of tolerance for lying and nonsense.
November 20, 2025 at 6:42 PM
I find it impossible to listen to them without my head exploding. I just look to see if there's any market reaction. I figure if they do say anything meaningful there'll be some commentary somewhere by someone with a higher degree of tolerance for lying and nonsense.
I expected there to be some giveback after the overnight bounce, but I didn't expect it to be reversed in under 3 hours. Also Bitcoin. Market does not want to go up, after months where that's all it wanted to do.
November 20, 2025 at 5:08 PM
I expected there to be some giveback after the overnight bounce, but I didn't expect it to be reversed in under 3 hours. Also Bitcoin. Market does not want to go up, after months where that's all it wanted to do.