@muchmore2learn.bsky.social
Here for thoughtful & respectful dialog, grounded in evidence and reason. Interests range from politics to history to science & technology.
Whether it's 2016, 2020 or 2024, IMO we confuse the electorate's raw desire for disruptive change, born of frustration with the status quo, with some coherent vision or agenda.
December 19, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Whether it's 2016, 2020 or 2024, IMO we confuse the electorate's raw desire for disruptive change, born of frustration with the status quo, with some coherent vision or agenda.
I find both those views repugnant, but I nonetheless believe that we need a secure border and an orderly immigration system. Though again, what I want matters a lot less than what the median voter can be convinced is in their interest.
December 18, 2025 at 9:41 PM
I find both those views repugnant, but I nonetheless believe that we need a secure border and an orderly immigration system. Though again, what I want matters a lot less than what the median voter can be convinced is in their interest.
FWIW I do not think I am immoral or a racist. In any case my own views on what would be optimal are (I think) more open than what the median voter wants. We have to regain median voter trust on this issue and "win the argument" before we can implement new policies IMO.
December 18, 2025 at 9:23 PM
FWIW I do not think I am immoral or a racist. In any case my own views on what would be optimal are (I think) more open than what the median voter wants. We have to regain median voter trust on this issue and "win the argument" before we can implement new policies IMO.
I don't think that spreadsheet - at least, the columns shared - provides the full picture. Refugee admissions are not the same thing as asylum seekers. You can find many sources online showing that we admitted about 3.5 million asylum seekers from 2021 to 2023.
December 18, 2025 at 9:19 PM
I don't think that spreadsheet - at least, the columns shared - provides the full picture. Refugee admissions are not the same thing as asylum seekers. You can find many sources online showing that we admitted about 3.5 million asylum seekers from 2021 to 2023.
Not at present, obviously. But over 2021-2023, we admitted about 3.5 million purported asylum seekers, and this was a big factor IMO in MAGA returning to power.
December 18, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Not at present, obviously. But over 2021-2023, we admitted about 3.5 million purported asylum seekers, and this was a big factor IMO in MAGA returning to power.
At least, different from yours. I think asylum is important, but should be for people who are under threat from their own governments; I don't think this is should apply to people fleeing poor economic conditions, unstable regimes or environmental disasters.
December 18, 2025 at 9:10 PM
At least, different from yours. I think asylum is important, but should be for people who are under threat from their own governments; I don't think this is should apply to people fleeing poor economic conditions, unstable regimes or environmental disasters.
I think the public soured on this rapidly in 2021-22, Biden lost trust and the window to argue for a different approach did close. IMO Team Biden did not try to put forward a more coherent border policy at any point, and could not once they'd lost public trust broadly.
December 18, 2025 at 9:03 PM
I think the public soured on this rapidly in 2021-22, Biden lost trust and the window to argue for a different approach did close. IMO Team Biden did not try to put forward a more coherent border policy at any point, and could not once they'd lost public trust broadly.
I think it's fair to say that top Dems (Biden, Harris, etc.) did not put forward a "case" for a pro-immigration policy; IMO the window for doing so closed when the public began to perceive the border as being out of control.
December 18, 2025 at 8:44 PM
I think it's fair to say that top Dems (Biden, Harris, etc.) did not put forward a "case" for a pro-immigration policy; IMO the window for doing so closed when the public began to perceive the border as being out of control.
I'm personally a fan of immigration and would like to see more immigrants in an orderly system. But IMO the median voter is less comfortable than either you or I with an influx of immigrants, and has to be convinced that this will benefit them.
December 18, 2025 at 8:31 PM
I'm personally a fan of immigration and would like to see more immigrants in an orderly system. But IMO the median voter is less comfortable than either you or I with an influx of immigrants, and has to be convinced that this will benefit them.
Agree that the asylum system is slow and underfunded (though IMO its use should be narrow) and that we should admit more immigrants (though IMO not like we did in 2021-23). But I think the "argument" has to be won with median voters, and so far we have not won that argument or earned their trust.
December 18, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Agree that the asylum system is slow and underfunded (though IMO its use should be narrow) and that we should admit more immigrants (though IMO not like we did in 2021-23). But I think the "argument" has to be won with median voters, and so far we have not won that argument or earned their trust.
Not my intent. My impression is that what I described is what a substantial majority of voters want, and I don't think it is at odds with Democratic values. What is your alternative?
December 18, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Not my intent. My impression is that what I described is what a substantial majority of voters want, and I don't think it is at odds with Democratic values. What is your alternative?
I think that's accurate but technical - in any case over 2021-23, the US had an influx of ~3.5M people who were IMO abusing the asylum process (and thereby doing real harm to genuine asylum seekers). Voters saw this as a loss of control over the border and it became a salient issue in 2024.
December 18, 2025 at 8:09 PM
I think that's accurate but technical - in any case over 2021-23, the US had an influx of ~3.5M people who were IMO abusing the asylum process (and thereby doing real harm to genuine asylum seekers). Voters saw this as a loss of control over the border and it became a salient issue in 2024.
IMO it's not an extreme right position to want a secure border, an asylum process that's not abused by economic refugees and an orderly immigration process. I think Dems could be for all of these things without compromising our values.
December 18, 2025 at 8:05 PM
IMO it's not an extreme right position to want a secure border, an asylum process that's not abused by economic refugees and an orderly immigration process. I think Dems could be for all of these things without compromising our values.
I think the Biden deportation number is accurate but misleading - most of these were "same day" deportations of people caught crossing illegally. The much bigger problem under Biden was the abuse of the asylum process, which did result in about 3.5 million new asylum seekers entering the US.
December 18, 2025 at 8:03 PM
I think the Biden deportation number is accurate but misleading - most of these were "same day" deportations of people caught crossing illegally. The much bigger problem under Biden was the abuse of the asylum process, which did result in about 3.5 million new asylum seekers entering the US.
Nothing specific-web searching with a critical eye for reliable fact-based journalism
December 18, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Nothing specific-web searching with a critical eye for reliable fact-based journalism
Hoping to win on thermostatics alone & avoid any intra-coalition fights. But it feels like a mistake.
December 18, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Hoping to win on thermostatics alone & avoid any intra-coalition fights. But it feels like a mistake.
What I've read is that over 2021-2023, Biden's team established asylum policies that were (IMO) abused by economic refugees and resulted in about 3.5 million new undocumented immigrants. This was widely (and IMO rightly) perceived as a failure to manage the border.
December 18, 2025 at 5:32 PM
What I've read is that over 2021-2023, Biden's team established asylum policies that were (IMO) abused by economic refugees and resulted in about 3.5 million new undocumented immigrants. This was widely (and IMO rightly) perceived as a failure to manage the border.
FWIW - I think the public is responding to the evident cruelty & vindictiveness here, and perhaps there's a winnable issue in there. But to talk about this, Dems IMO need to face up to screwing up the border under Biden.
December 18, 2025 at 4:21 PM
FWIW - I think the public is responding to the evident cruelty & vindictiveness here, and perhaps there's a winnable issue in there. But to talk about this, Dems IMO need to face up to screwing up the border under Biden.
So many opportunities. It feels like Dem leadership wants to stay away from any positions on issues, perhaps to avoid intraparty fights, and rely on a thermostatic win. If true I think this is a mistake.
December 18, 2025 at 12:36 PM
So many opportunities. It feels like Dem leadership wants to stay away from any positions on issues, perhaps to avoid intraparty fights, and rely on a thermostatic win. If true I think this is a mistake.
Good for her - it doesn’t erase her past vileness and she likely has selfish motives but it’s still a decent thing, and no elected Republican has any excuse to not speak out themselves
December 15, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Good for her - it doesn’t erase her past vileness and she likely has selfish motives but it’s still a decent thing, and no elected Republican has any excuse to not speak out themselves
Not an X user, but my impression is that you aren't really "combatting the dangerousness of the right" if you're just jousting verbally with trolls. Is there meaningful, thoughtful dialog between opposing points of view on X?
December 15, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Not an X user, but my impression is that you aren't really "combatting the dangerousness of the right" if you're just jousting verbally with trolls. Is there meaningful, thoughtful dialog between opposing points of view on X?
Horseshoe theory?
December 13, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Horseshoe theory?
Fair enough - there isn't anyone else who can lay claim to being the 2028 front runner at present.
December 12, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Fair enough - there isn't anyone else who can lay claim to being the 2028 front runner at present.
IMO it's way too early for anyone to be a front runner for 2028. Newsom is clearly planning a run and trying out some moves; I would neither discount him nor view him as ahead of anyone else.
December 12, 2025 at 6:53 PM
IMO it's way too early for anyone to be a front runner for 2028. Newsom is clearly planning a run and trying out some moves; I would neither discount him nor view him as ahead of anyone else.