Michael Taylor
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mtaylornz.bsky.social
Michael Taylor
@mtaylornz.bsky.social
Energy transition thought leader, numbers guy, lapsed energy modeller, 3 decades worth of learning in energy so far...
Independent consultant (EME Consulting). Ex-lead of IRENA's work on RE costs. All opinions are my own.
agreed
February 15, 2025 at 1:47 PM
done!
February 12, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Fantastic graphics in this effort. Honestly, hats off to them...

Any one here I can follow?
February 12, 2025 at 2:47 PM
I hear you, & that's what most experts seem to say.

Doesn't that imply that for AI chat bots to be actually useful you need to be an expert?

Aren't we then just acting as Prof., grading the AIs effort?

Put another way: the actual value added seems marginal, but the potential damage extensive
February 11, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Ha ha, I can do the summary of that now:

These two things are true...

1) Future prices are the best estimate of actual prices in the future

2) Futures prices are a terrible predictor of future actual prices

But yeah, its a good topic. I will have to think about how I can do it in 2-3 mins!
February 10, 2025 at 1:59 PM
You too!
February 10, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Pulp & paper production can use fossil fuels for their heat & electricity needs or they can use their byproducts, black liquor & the wood residues.

It makes no sense to use fossil fuels & the black liquor if discharged into water courses will destroy aquatic life and turn the river a caramel colour
February 10, 2025 at 11:04 AM
I was working mostly on cost data, so here you see the major projects for which we found cost data by feedstock.

Note this isn't necessarily representative of the global shares, just the data we found for costs...

this doesn't include dedicated energy crops...
February 10, 2025 at 10:47 AM
And i was clear Drax isn't part of the solution.
February 10, 2025 at 10:43 AM
www.irena.org
February 10, 2025 at 10:42 AM
There is also potential for the complementary growing of energy feedstocks with plants that help fix nitrogen, in conjunction with agriculture in developing countries

Drax isn't a good, but that's not to say there aren't good bioenergy options globally

that was the point of me saying 'bioenergy'
February 10, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Its wood in Drax's case, but if you look at the feedstocks globally you will see that outside the narrow (blinkered, even??) confines of the OECD there are a lot of agricultural and forestry residues that are being combusted.

1/
February 10, 2025 at 10:38 AM
and a huge 'thank you' to Ignacio Cruz at CIEMAT for inviting me to present to the Clean Energy Transition Partnership meeting.

Not sure he is on here, but you can find him at Linkedin...

5/5

www.linkedin.com/in/ignacio-c...
www.linkedin.com
February 10, 2025 at 9:47 AM
This is a longer form presentation, but I hope to do shorter ones (2-3 mins) on a regular basis. Any ideas on what I should do next? Drop them in the comments!

4/
February 10, 2025 at 9:45 AM
A big part of that is the impact of today's higher interest rates and the impact that will potentially have on the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Spoiler alert, its really significant and therefore the cost of electricity from offshore wind projects is going to be higher.

3/
February 10, 2025 at 9:44 AM