@mrschmidt20.bsky.social
None of my replies, comments,(re-) tweets, or posts are to be understood as advice for any matter of life - especially not with respect to financial matters.
Author of https://compcap.substack.com
Author of https://compcap.substack.com
Pinned
New free Investment Musings post:
Warren Buffett's 'Owner Earnings' is a classic tool for value investors. But in 2025, it's missing a big source of value creation: intangible investments.
Accounting punishes companies for investing in their future. Here's a concept to tackle it
Warren Buffett's 'Owner Earnings' is a classic tool for value investors. But in 2025, it's missing a big source of value creation: intangible investments.
Accounting punishes companies for investing in their future. Here's a concept to tackle it
German sub-€150m micro-cap is executing a "simplified capital reduction" to wipe out historical deficits.
Why? Clearing the path for dividends and buybacks.
Net Cash & tax shield that exceeds its Enterprise Value.
But there is a lease accounting catch...
substacktools.com/sharex/s7tQO...
Why? Clearing the path for dividends and buybacks.
Net Cash & tax shield that exceeds its Enterprise Value.
But there is a lease accounting catch...
substacktools.com/sharex/s7tQO...
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
German sub-€150m micro-cap is executing a "simplified capital reduction" to wipe out historical deficits.
Why? Clearing the path for dividends and buybacks.
Net Cash & tax shield that exceeds its Enterprise Value.
But there is a lease accounting catch...
substacktools.com/sharex/s7tQO...
Why? Clearing the path for dividends and buybacks.
Net Cash & tax shield that exceeds its Enterprise Value.
But there is a lease accounting catch...
substacktools.com/sharex/s7tQO...
40% drops are never fun... even in microcaps. Looking @sensennet SenSen’s (#$SNS.ax) broken streak of six positive cash flow quarters and only 1.1 quarters of liquidity, seems scary... but there are also green shoots.
My take: substacktools.com/sharex/rYseG...
My take: substacktools.com/sharex/rYseG...
January 28, 2026 at 11:46 AM
40% drops are never fun... even in microcaps. Looking @sensennet SenSen’s (#$SNS.ax) broken streak of six positive cash flow quarters and only 1.1 quarters of liquidity, seems scary... but there are also green shoots.
My take: substacktools.com/sharex/rYseG...
My take: substacktools.com/sharex/rYseG...
Up +150% since my initial deep dive a year ago, driven by geopolitical uncertainty.
It isn't just the headlines or the legal progress; it's also the strategic assets the company acquired for pennies.
Banked some profits. The rest is a free ride.
substacktools.com/sharex/Ofl6_...
It isn't just the headlines or the legal progress; it's also the strategic assets the company acquired for pennies.
Banked some profits. The rest is a free ride.
substacktools.com/sharex/Ofl6_...
International Arbitration as a Hedge in a Trump World
Revisiting and re-underwriting this international arbitration play one year after initiation. Gains of +150%, with most driven in the last month.
substacktools.com
January 27, 2026 at 11:10 AM
Up +150% since my initial deep dive a year ago, driven by geopolitical uncertainty.
It isn't just the headlines or the legal progress; it's also the strategic assets the company acquired for pennies.
Banked some profits. The rest is a free ride.
substacktools.com/sharex/Ofl6_...
It isn't just the headlines or the legal progress; it's also the strategic assets the company acquired for pennies.
Banked some profits. The rest is a free ride.
substacktools.com/sharex/Ofl6_...
Quality of Life update: The Idea Inventory.
A central hub to track every active opportunity and daisy-chain backwards through the research history.
From microcap net-nets to distressed arb—it’s all indexed here:
substacktools.com/sharex/ojEap...
A central hub to track every active opportunity and daisy-chain backwards through the research history.
From microcap net-nets to distressed arb—it’s all indexed here:
substacktools.com/sharex/ojEap...
January 27, 2026 at 9:38 AM
Quality of Life update: The Idea Inventory.
A central hub to track every active opportunity and daisy-chain backwards through the research history.
From microcap net-nets to distressed arb—it’s all indexed here:
substacktools.com/sharex/ojEap...
A central hub to track every active opportunity and daisy-chain backwards through the research history.
From microcap net-nets to distressed arb—it’s all indexed here:
substacktools.com/sharex/ojEap...
I❤️Australia: "Information Arbitrage" due to Appendix 4C filings.
Revenue accelerating (+40% YoY)
New product pipeline
Regulatory progress
consecutive quarters of pos NPAT and FCF
Boardroom drama sees legal progress
~$14m unrecognized tax shield
substacktools.com/sharex/jUGYF...
Revenue accelerating (+40% YoY)
New product pipeline
Regulatory progress
consecutive quarters of pos NPAT and FCF
Boardroom drama sees legal progress
~$14m unrecognized tax shield
substacktools.com/sharex/jUGYF...
January 25, 2026 at 2:59 PM
I❤️Australia: "Information Arbitrage" due to Appendix 4C filings.
Revenue accelerating (+40% YoY)
New product pipeline
Regulatory progress
consecutive quarters of pos NPAT and FCF
Boardroom drama sees legal progress
~$14m unrecognized tax shield
substacktools.com/sharex/jUGYF...
Revenue accelerating (+40% YoY)
New product pipeline
Regulatory progress
consecutive quarters of pos NPAT and FCF
Boardroom drama sees legal progress
~$14m unrecognized tax shield
substacktools.com/sharex/jUGYF...
The #$DJCO IR team kindly responded to my inquiries. Here is a quick update article on the three aspects I raised in my last week's article:
substacktools.com/sharex/AIq7V...
substacktools.com/sharex/AIq7V...
January 23, 2026 at 11:04 AM
The #$DJCO IR team kindly responded to my inquiries. Here is a quick update article on the three aspects I raised in my last week's article:
substacktools.com/sharex/AIq7V...
substacktools.com/sharex/AIq7V...
Despite what I consider good earnings, the shares of the company I posted about yesterday dropped 20% or so today.
So, the short-term trade failed
Consequently, I stepped up the DD. Find it here:
substacktools.com/sharex/abfOP...
So, the short-term trade failed
Consequently, I stepped up the DD. Find it here:
substacktools.com/sharex/abfOP...
January 22, 2026 at 5:46 PM
Despite what I consider good earnings, the shares of the company I posted about yesterday dropped 20% or so today.
So, the short-term trade failed
Consequently, I stepped up the DD. Find it here:
substacktools.com/sharex/abfOP...
So, the short-term trade failed
Consequently, I stepped up the DD. Find it here:
substacktools.com/sharex/abfOP...
Too early for victory laps, but HY results confirmed guidance.
Important: the company met or exceeded it's TU or HY guidance in each of the last three years
The shares ran a bit, but the company trades now at 1.6x adjusted ex lease EV / adjusted EBITDA...
Important: the company met or exceeded it's TU or HY guidance in each of the last three years
The shares ran a bit, but the company trades now at 1.6x adjusted ex lease EV / adjusted EBITDA...
I normally do not play earnings, but this seems to be a reasonable wager.
-IFRS distorts this UK company
-Strip out the accounting fog & it’s trading at ~2x guided Adjusted EBITDA
-I guess we'll know tomorrow...
substacktools.com/sharex/o28jE...
-IFRS distorts this UK company
-Strip out the accounting fog & it’s trading at ~2x guided Adjusted EBITDA
-I guess we'll know tomorrow...
substacktools.com/sharex/o28jE...
January 22, 2026 at 8:03 AM
Too early for victory laps, but HY results confirmed guidance.
Important: the company met or exceeded it's TU or HY guidance in each of the last three years
The shares ran a bit, but the company trades now at 1.6x adjusted ex lease EV / adjusted EBITDA...
Important: the company met or exceeded it's TU or HY guidance in each of the last three years
The shares ran a bit, but the company trades now at 1.6x adjusted ex lease EV / adjusted EBITDA...
I normally do not play earnings, but this seems to be a reasonable wager.
-IFRS distorts this UK company
-Strip out the accounting fog & it’s trading at ~2x guided Adjusted EBITDA
-I guess we'll know tomorrow...
substacktools.com/sharex/o28jE...
-IFRS distorts this UK company
-Strip out the accounting fog & it’s trading at ~2x guided Adjusted EBITDA
-I guess we'll know tomorrow...
substacktools.com/sharex/o28jE...
January 21, 2026 at 12:50 PM
I normally do not play earnings, but this seems to be a reasonable wager.
-IFRS distorts this UK company
-Strip out the accounting fog & it’s trading at ~2x guided Adjusted EBITDA
-I guess we'll know tomorrow...
substacktools.com/sharex/o28jE...
-IFRS distorts this UK company
-Strip out the accounting fog & it’s trading at ~2x guided Adjusted EBITDA
-I guess we'll know tomorrow...
substacktools.com/sharex/o28jE...
After 3x return:
Still trading at a fraction of its risk-adjusted NAV. Management executing & tangible progress.
The kicker? Replacement value of infrastructure should underpin or even exceed its market price.
Everything else is upside, but risks remain.
substacktools.com/sharex/oB4ky...
Still trading at a fraction of its risk-adjusted NAV. Management executing & tangible progress.
The kicker? Replacement value of infrastructure should underpin or even exceed its market price.
Everything else is upside, but risks remain.
substacktools.com/sharex/oB4ky...
January 20, 2026 at 11:55 AM
After 3x return:
Still trading at a fraction of its risk-adjusted NAV. Management executing & tangible progress.
The kicker? Replacement value of infrastructure should underpin or even exceed its market price.
Everything else is upside, but risks remain.
substacktools.com/sharex/oB4ky...
Still trading at a fraction of its risk-adjusted NAV. Management executing & tangible progress.
The kicker? Replacement value of infrastructure should underpin or even exceed its market price.
Everything else is upside, but risks remain.
substacktools.com/sharex/oB4ky...
Daily Journal Corp (#$DJCO) FY2025. Its JTI grew revenue 31% and quadrupled its Operating Income with 60% incremental margins.
Yet I’m staying on the sidelines:
-The "Stub" is expensive
-Limited visibility
-"single-share" activist Drama
substacktools.com/sharex/RDON5...
Yet I’m staying on the sidelines:
-The "Stub" is expensive
-Limited visibility
-"single-share" activist Drama
substacktools.com/sharex/RDON5...
January 18, 2026 at 2:43 PM
Daily Journal Corp (#$DJCO) FY2025. Its JTI grew revenue 31% and quadrupled its Operating Income with 60% incremental margins.
Yet I’m staying on the sidelines:
-The "Stub" is expensive
-Limited visibility
-"single-share" activist Drama
substacktools.com/sharex/RDON5...
Yet I’m staying on the sidelines:
-The "Stub" is expensive
-Limited visibility
-"single-share" activist Drama
substacktools.com/sharex/RDON5...
Harbor Diversified #$HRBR update: The airline sale is complete.
The company is now a cash shell trading probably at EV<0 (but the BS is from 2024). Strategic review announced, all options on the table.
A free brief write-up on the numbers and the risks:
substacktools.com/sharex/0q_Rf...
The company is now a cash shell trading probably at EV<0 (but the BS is from 2024). Strategic review announced, all options on the table.
A free brief write-up on the numbers and the risks:
substacktools.com/sharex/0q_Rf...
January 16, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Harbor Diversified #$HRBR update: The airline sale is complete.
The company is now a cash shell trading probably at EV<0 (but the BS is from 2024). Strategic review announced, all options on the table.
A free brief write-up on the numbers and the risks:
substacktools.com/sharex/0q_Rf...
The company is now a cash shell trading probably at EV<0 (but the BS is from 2024). Strategic review announced, all options on the table.
A free brief write-up on the numbers and the risks:
substacktools.com/sharex/0q_Rf...
A bit unsual: this is an extremely tiny, short-term, illiquid, high relative return special situation.
substacktools.com/sharex/hYC1Q...
substacktools.com/sharex/hYC1Q...
January 16, 2026 at 12:08 PM
A bit unsual: this is an extremely tiny, short-term, illiquid, high relative return special situation.
substacktools.com/sharex/hYC1Q...
substacktools.com/sharex/hYC1Q...
A Tale of Two UK Builders:
$TW.L warned of margin compression in 2026 due to weak private demand. On Tuesday, $VTY.L reported H2 margin expansion (to 9.6%) as Partner volumes surged 30%.
Vistry decoupled itself from the toxic mortgage cycle, it seems
substacktools.com/sharex/rmzuq...
$TW.L warned of margin compression in 2026 due to weak private demand. On Tuesday, $VTY.L reported H2 margin expansion (to 9.6%) as Partner volumes surged 30%.
Vistry decoupled itself from the toxic mortgage cycle, it seems
substacktools.com/sharex/rmzuq...
January 15, 2026 at 6:28 PM
A Tale of Two UK Builders:
$TW.L warned of margin compression in 2026 due to weak private demand. On Tuesday, $VTY.L reported H2 margin expansion (to 9.6%) as Partner volumes surged 30%.
Vistry decoupled itself from the toxic mortgage cycle, it seems
substacktools.com/sharex/rmzuq...
$TW.L warned of margin compression in 2026 due to weak private demand. On Tuesday, $VTY.L reported H2 margin expansion (to 9.6%) as Partner volumes surged 30%.
Vistry decoupled itself from the toxic mortgage cycle, it seems
substacktools.com/sharex/rmzuq...
Kudos: Following my last article, Acorn Energy ($ACFN) reached out to clarify the strategy. I appreciate CEO Jan Loeb's candor on the topics discussed.
While I remain on the sidelines, I believe it is a great resource for investors following the company
substacktools.com/sharex/NS33J...
While I remain on the sidelines, I believe it is a great resource for investors following the company
substacktools.com/sharex/NS33J...
January 15, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Kudos: Following my last article, Acorn Energy ($ACFN) reached out to clarify the strategy. I appreciate CEO Jan Loeb's candor on the topics discussed.
While I remain on the sidelines, I believe it is a great resource for investors following the company
substacktools.com/sharex/NS33J...
While I remain on the sidelines, I believe it is a great resource for investors following the company
substacktools.com/sharex/NS33J...
The "Second Engine" thesis for this pitch plays out nicely. The new income stream is beating my models, and the backlog grows.
Why did I liquidate the entire position for a +30% gain?
Here is the full write-up:
Why did I liquidate the entire position for a +30% gain?
Here is the full write-up:
January 14, 2026 at 6:23 PM
The "Second Engine" thesis for this pitch plays out nicely. The new income stream is beating my models, and the backlog grows.
Why did I liquidate the entire position for a +30% gain?
Here is the full write-up:
Why did I liquidate the entire position for a +30% gain?
Here is the full write-up:
Unusual for my Substack, but here it goes:
-20-25% distressed UK merger spread
-Most hurdles cleared, assets sold, hundreds of millions of liquidity already injected from the suitor (!)
-guidance: closing in the next six months
substacktools.com/sharex/JeIwS...
-20-25% distressed UK merger spread
-Most hurdles cleared, assets sold, hundreds of millions of liquidity already injected from the suitor (!)
-guidance: closing in the next six months
substacktools.com/sharex/JeIwS...
January 13, 2026 at 6:19 PM
Unusual for my Substack, but here it goes:
-20-25% distressed UK merger spread
-Most hurdles cleared, assets sold, hundreds of millions of liquidity already injected from the suitor (!)
-guidance: closing in the next six months
substacktools.com/sharex/JeIwS...
-20-25% distressed UK merger spread
-Most hurdles cleared, assets sold, hundreds of millions of liquidity already injected from the suitor (!)
-guidance: closing in the next six months
substacktools.com/sharex/JeIwS...
I closed my position in Acorn Energy ($ACFN).
What started as a hardware-led flywheel thesis now has growth stalling and a complex partnership story that is difficult to model. The recent price recovery removed my safety net -> Into the "Too Hard" pile.
substacktools.com/sharex/dqyEy...
What started as a hardware-led flywheel thesis now has growth stalling and a complex partnership story that is difficult to model. The recent price recovery removed my safety net -> Into the "Too Hard" pile.
substacktools.com/sharex/dqyEy...
January 12, 2026 at 3:02 PM
I closed my position in Acorn Energy ($ACFN).
What started as a hardware-led flywheel thesis now has growth stalling and a complex partnership story that is difficult to model. The recent price recovery removed my safety net -> Into the "Too Hard" pile.
substacktools.com/sharex/dqyEy...
What started as a hardware-led flywheel thesis now has growth stalling and a complex partnership story that is difficult to model. The recent price recovery removed my safety net -> Into the "Too Hard" pile.
substacktools.com/sharex/dqyEy...
I engaged with Investor Relations and dug into the accounting to model the unit economics of a single $IWG Managed & Franchised center.
The result: The CAC/LTV ratio appears to be off the charts.
substacktools.com/sharex/98L2T...
The result: The CAC/LTV ratio appears to be off the charts.
substacktools.com/sharex/98L2T...
January 8, 2026 at 12:14 PM
I engaged with Investor Relations and dug into the accounting to model the unit economics of a single $IWG Managed & Franchised center.
The result: The CAC/LTV ratio appears to be off the charts.
substacktools.com/sharex/98L2T...
The result: The CAC/LTV ratio appears to be off the charts.
substacktools.com/sharex/98L2T...
In my Year-End reflection, I discussed the discipline of taking profits to avoid "falling in love" with a winner.
After a 4-bagger run, I applied that to $PHX.AX. I derisked the position, but I kept a core position. Why? Because I still see an asymmetry.
substacktools.com/sharex/gaQCr...
After a 4-bagger run, I applied that to $PHX.AX. I derisked the position, but I kept a core position. Why? Because I still see an asymmetry.
substacktools.com/sharex/gaQCr...
January 6, 2026 at 2:56 PM
In my Year-End reflection, I discussed the discipline of taking profits to avoid "falling in love" with a winner.
After a 4-bagger run, I applied that to $PHX.AX. I derisked the position, but I kept a core position. Why? Because I still see an asymmetry.
substacktools.com/sharex/gaQCr...
After a 4-bagger run, I applied that to $PHX.AX. I derisked the position, but I kept a core position. Why? Because I still see an asymmetry.
substacktools.com/sharex/gaQCr...
The last daily haiku for the year, appropriatly linking to yesterday's year end article 'It is a Time of Reflection'
Research finds the gems,
Multibaggers prove the work.
Next step: learn to sell.
substacktools.com/sharex/RtT9v...
Happy New Year, everyone!
Research finds the gems,
Multibaggers prove the work.
Next step: learn to sell.
substacktools.com/sharex/RtT9v...
Happy New Year, everyone!
December 31, 2025 at 11:30 AM
The last daily haiku for the year, appropriatly linking to yesterday's year end article 'It is a Time of Reflection'
Research finds the gems,
Multibaggers prove the work.
Next step: learn to sell.
substacktools.com/sharex/RtT9v...
Happy New Year, everyone!
Research finds the gems,
Multibaggers prove the work.
Next step: learn to sell.
substacktools.com/sharex/RtT9v...
Happy New Year, everyone!
Haiku of the Day for 'The Marxist Guide to Intangible Investing'
Marx meets balance sheets,
Frozen work yields living gains.
See what GAAP ignores.
substacktools.com/sharex/YYPuc...
Marx meets balance sheets,
Frozen work yields living gains.
See what GAAP ignores.
substacktools.com/sharex/YYPuc...
December 30, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Haiku of the Day for 'The Marxist Guide to Intangible Investing'
Marx meets balance sheets,
Frozen work yields living gains.
See what GAAP ignores.
substacktools.com/sharex/YYPuc...
Marx meets balance sheets,
Frozen work yields living gains.
See what GAAP ignores.
substacktools.com/sharex/YYPuc...
Fundamental analysis works in microcaps: I tracked every idea I published over the last 2 years (34 stocks).
-Good: The Median High per pick is +41.3%. 1 in 5 became a multibagger.
-Bad: The "Hold Forever" return is much lower.
Here is my Scorecard:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRdiV...
-Good: The Median High per pick is +41.3%. 1 in 5 became a multibagger.
-Bad: The "Hold Forever" return is much lower.
Here is my Scorecard:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRdiV...
December 30, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Fundamental analysis works in microcaps: I tracked every idea I published over the last 2 years (34 stocks).
-Good: The Median High per pick is +41.3%. 1 in 5 became a multibagger.
-Bad: The "Hold Forever" return is much lower.
Here is my Scorecard:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRdiV...
-Good: The Median High per pick is +41.3%. 1 in 5 became a multibagger.
-Bad: The "Hold Forever" return is much lower.
Here is my Scorecard:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRdiV...
This subscriber comment is why I write. He didn't just leave feedback but effectively wrote the "Chapter 2" of my thesis, operationalizing the theory into a 4-step investment framework.
Grateful for a platform that fosters this level of discourse.
substacktools.com/sharex/DmlTq...
Grateful for a platform that fosters this level of discourse.
substacktools.com/sharex/DmlTq...
The Marxist Guide to Intangible Investing
Serendipity on a slow Boxing Day morning, or: Why Marx' Labor Theory of Value is the missing link in modern valuation, and what an AI taught me about
substacktools.com
December 29, 2025 at 12:08 PM
This subscriber comment is why I write. He didn't just leave feedback but effectively wrote the "Chapter 2" of my thesis, operationalizing the theory into a 4-step investment framework.
Grateful for a platform that fosters this level of discourse.
substacktools.com/sharex/DmlTq...
Grateful for a platform that fosters this level of discourse.
substacktools.com/sharex/DmlTq...
Haiku of the Day for 'Mind the Gap (Part II): Correcting the Calculus of Intangibles'
Don't just add it back,
Intangibles decay, too.
Maintenance is real.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
Don't just add it back,
Intangibles decay, too.
Maintenance is real.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
December 29, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Haiku of the Day for 'Mind the Gap (Part II): Correcting the Calculus of Intangibles'
Don't just add it back,
Intangibles decay, too.
Maintenance is real.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
Don't just add it back,
Intangibles decay, too.
Maintenance is real.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...