PML
@mortimerleepaul.bsky.social
Economist, Ex BoE, IMF, BNPP, NIESR. Runs a specialist school. Brit, living in NY. 2 kids, 2 cats, 1 snake, 4 dogs, 1 wife. Opinions my own, even the wrong ones
Finance minister quote of the year 2025:
Rachel Reeves, May 2025,
“we are beginning to turn the corner”
How very true.
Rachel Reeves, May 2025,
“we are beginning to turn the corner”
How very true.
January 1, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Finance minister quote of the year 2025:
Rachel Reeves, May 2025,
“we are beginning to turn the corner”
How very true.
Rachel Reeves, May 2025,
“we are beginning to turn the corner”
How very true.
UK: The Insatiable Public Sector
Read my Substack here: bit.ly/4ryD4cg
Read my Substack here: bit.ly/4ryD4cg
UK: The Insatiable Public Sector
The public sector has swallowed virtually all the increase in UK GDP over recent years Projections of little future change in the public sector's share of the economy are totally unrealistic.
open.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 1:27 PM
UK: The Insatiable Public Sector
Read my Substack here: bit.ly/4ryD4cg
Read my Substack here: bit.ly/4ryD4cg
UK Budget: Spend Today, Tax Tomorrow
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
UK Budget: Spend Today, Tax Tomorrow
Markets are oblivious to the obvious
open.substack.com
November 27, 2025 at 4:35 PM
UK Budget: Spend Today, Tax Tomorrow
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
How do banks create money? By employing reserves? Lending out deposits? Or through lending? The last - money is endogenous. MMTers think the Bank of England "admitted" to that in 2014, whereas the approach started in the late 1960s. Read my Substack here
bit.ly/488PZZu
@bankofengland.bsky.social
bit.ly/488PZZu
@bankofengland.bsky.social
The Bank of England, MMT, and Money Creation
Endogenous Money Is Not New — The Bank of England Understood It Half a Century Ago
bit.ly
November 23, 2025 at 8:13 PM
How do banks create money? By employing reserves? Lending out deposits? Or through lending? The last - money is endogenous. MMTers think the Bank of England "admitted" to that in 2014, whereas the approach started in the late 1960s. Read my Substack here
bit.ly/488PZZu
@bankofengland.bsky.social
bit.ly/488PZZu
@bankofengland.bsky.social
Britain’ Budgetary Choices
November 23, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Britain’ Budgetary Choices
US: Low Corporate Sector Inflation
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
US: Low Corporate Sector Inflation
The contributions of labor costs and profits as the long-term drivers of inflation are subdued. Service price inflation is a problem for the FOMC, and and therefore for jobs
open.substack.com
September 14, 2025 at 6:00 PM
US: Low Corporate Sector Inflation
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Amid talk of an IMF program for the UK, what advice would Chancellor Denis Healey give? He was at HMT for the 1976 IMF program and raised the top marginal rate to 83% in 1974 and added a 15% surcharge on unearned investment income, ie a 98% top rate, in 1975.
In the style of James Gilray
In the style of James Gilray
September 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Amid talk of an IMF program for the UK, what advice would Chancellor Denis Healey give? He was at HMT for the 1976 IMF program and raised the top marginal rate to 83% in 1974 and added a 15% surcharge on unearned investment income, ie a 98% top rate, in 1975.
In the style of James Gilray
In the style of James Gilray
Tariffs Take a Tumble
The ruling has BIG economic and constitutional implications open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
The ruling has BIG economic and constitutional implications open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Tariffs Take a Tumble
The Appeal Court ruing striking down many new tariffs will have profound effects
open.substack.com
August 30, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Tariffs Take a Tumble
The ruling has BIG economic and constitutional implications open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
The ruling has BIG economic and constitutional implications open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Jackson Hole: Inflation First Among Equals
Powell will greatly annoy Trump today.
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Powell will greatly annoy Trump today.
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Jackson Hole: Inflation First Among Equals
I expect the speech to be more hawkish than the market prices. It will greatly displease President Trump.
open.substack.com
August 22, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Jackson Hole: Inflation First Among Equals
Powell will greatly annoy Trump today.
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Powell will greatly annoy Trump today.
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Las Vegas: Canary in the Coal Mine
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Las Vegas: Canary in the Coal Mine
Fewer visits to Vegas mean underlying consumption has stalled
open.substack.com
August 17, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Las Vegas: Canary in the Coal Mine
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Look who dropped in for dinner.
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
August 14, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Look who dropped in for dinner.
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
Made a meal of my peaches in the yard.
Fortunately the dogs were in...
US: July CPI Preview
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
US: July CPI Preview
I expect a stronger inflation print than the consensus
open.substack.com
August 11, 2025 at 9:01 PM
US: July CPI Preview
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Inflation makes itself at home in the UK
substack.com/@mortimerlee...
substack.com/@mortimerlee...
PML's Macro Focus (@mortimerleepaul)
Check out my new post!
substack.com
August 10, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Inflation makes itself at home in the UK
substack.com/@mortimerlee...
substack.com/@mortimerlee...
US Payrolls: That Wile E. Coyote Feeling
bit.ly/452TmB0
bit.ly/452TmB0
US Payrolls: That Wile E. Coyote Feeling
Recession is Baked in Given the Adverse Trend, with Shocks Still to Feed Through
open.substack.com
August 4, 2025 at 2:27 PM
US Payrolls: That Wile E. Coyote Feeling
bit.ly/452TmB0
bit.ly/452TmB0
The absolute best! I was lucky enough to be the IMF desk officer for Mauritius. Lovely place, but the people are even better - warm and friendly. Just wonderful.
Back from hols and this is now a Mauritius stan account.
Week in the north (beaches!, botanical gardens!), week in the south (hiking, monkeys, waterfalls, dolphins, tea, rum!)
Amazing place, go if you can.
Week in the north (beaches!, botanical gardens!), week in the south (hiking, monkeys, waterfalls, dolphins, tea, rum!)
Amazing place, go if you can.
August 4, 2025 at 2:25 PM
The absolute best! I was lucky enough to be the IMF desk officer for Mauritius. Lovely place, but the people are even better - warm and friendly. Just wonderful.
US Payrolls: That Wile E. Coyote Feeling
bit.ly/452TmB0
bit.ly/452TmB0
US Payrolls: That Wile E. Coyote Feeling
Recession is Baked in Given the Adverse Trend, with Shocks Still to Feed Through
open.substack.com
August 4, 2025 at 2:17 PM
US Payrolls: That Wile E. Coyote Feeling
bit.ly/452TmB0
bit.ly/452TmB0
In was happy that my GDP model did well at predicting today’s GDP release. The Q2 print was 3.0%, my estimate was 2.9% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW was 2.4%. The Blue Chip consensus was around 2%. My model did better because of its dynamic elements.
July 31, 2025 at 1:14 AM
In was happy that my GDP model did well at predicting today’s GDP release. The Q2 print was 3.0%, my estimate was 2.9% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW was 2.4%. The Blue Chip consensus was around 2%. My model did better because of its dynamic elements.
The BLS says it's due to resource constraints (ie, cuts). A good deal of the price data comes from visits to establishments. Presumably that has been cut, with more reliance on internet downloads from big stores. Big stores tend to have lower prices than independents, so this will bias the cpi down
July 30, 2025 at 11:16 PM
The BLS says it's due to resource constraints (ie, cuts). A good deal of the price data comes from visits to establishments. Presumably that has been cut, with more reliance on internet downloads from big stores. Big stores tend to have lower prices than independents, so this will bias the cpi down
The BLS says it's due to resource constraints (ie, cuts). A good deal of the price data comes from visits to establishments. Presumably that has been cut, with more reliance on internet downloads from big stores. Big stores tend to have lower prices than independents, so this will bias the cpi down
One of the most surprising details in the latest CPI: an increasing share of price data was estimated, not observed.
In June, over 1/3 of #CPI imputations came from other items or locations likely due to budget cuts and staffing shortages at BLS.
We can’t fight #inflation without reliable data.
In June, over 1/3 of #CPI imputations came from other items or locations likely due to budget cuts and staffing shortages at BLS.
We can’t fight #inflation without reliable data.
July 30, 2025 at 11:16 PM
The BLS says it's due to resource constraints (ie, cuts). A good deal of the price data comes from visits to establishments. Presumably that has been cut, with more reliance on internet downloads from big stores. Big stores tend to have lower prices than independents, so this will bias the cpi down
FedWatch: July Preview
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
FedWatch: July Preview
Data Give no Support for Cuts in July or September
open.substack.com
July 26, 2025 at 3:23 PM
FedWatch: July Preview
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Jerome Powell: Fed Chair Report Card
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Jerome Powell: Fed Chair Report Card
The Overall GPA May Surprise You
open.substack.com
July 23, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Jerome Powell: Fed Chair Report Card
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
French Budget Blues
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
French Budget Blues
There are Fantasies and Fairy-tales. And Then There are French Budget Projections
open.substack.com
July 22, 2025 at 3:48 PM
French Budget Blues
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
The Fed Stakes: Runners and Riders
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
The Fed Stakes: Runners and Riders
Don't think the new Chair has only one vote - they have eight!
open.substack.com
July 20, 2025 at 9:29 PM
The Fed Stakes: Runners and Riders
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
open.substack.com/pub/mortimer...
Letter: The problem is too much spending, not too little tax
July 18, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Letter: The problem is too much spending, not too little tax