AFU have not enough firepower otherwise Russians won't be able to accumulate that easily
November 24, 2025 at 1:39 PM
AFU have not enough firepower otherwise Russians won't be able to accumulate that easily
How many bombs can you drop with 4 airstrikes a day ?
November 24, 2025 at 12:06 PM
How many bombs can you drop with 4 airstrikes a day ?
Appreciate any support Ukraine need every bit of it.
November 23, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Appreciate any support Ukraine need every bit of it.
There are too few things to describe.
Most of my analysis last for months, and there are 5-7 areas to describe.
I can throw some stats, but they are mostly meaningless as AFU will fight barehand, russians can tolerate any losses and make fun of it isn't funny anymore.
Most of my analysis last for months, and there are 5-7 areas to describe.
I can throw some stats, but they are mostly meaningless as AFU will fight barehand, russians can tolerate any losses and make fun of it isn't funny anymore.
November 23, 2025 at 9:21 PM
There are too few things to describe.
Most of my analysis last for months, and there are 5-7 areas to describe.
I can throw some stats, but they are mostly meaningless as AFU will fight barehand, russians can tolerate any losses and make fun of it isn't funny anymore.
Most of my analysis last for months, and there are 5-7 areas to describe.
I can throw some stats, but they are mostly meaningless as AFU will fight barehand, russians can tolerate any losses and make fun of it isn't funny anymore.
All the vulnerabilities and tactics are well known, hence it's only a matter of command and resources. AFU will suffer with mostly inefficient counter actions, RuAF will grind trying to wrap the defense nodes.
November 23, 2025 at 8:57 PM
All the vulnerabilities and tactics are well known, hence it's only a matter of command and resources. AFU will suffer with mostly inefficient counter actions, RuAF will grind trying to wrap the defense nodes.
[6] Capturing the dominant heights would gradually bend the front toward Zaporizhzhia itself.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[6] Capturing the dominant heights would gradually bend the front toward Zaporizhzhia itself.
[5] Once this section collapses and both Huliaipole and Ternuvate are captured, Russia could attempt to encircle or semi-encircle Orikhiv, aiming to bring down the western defensive arc that shields the broader Zaporizhzhia salient.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[5] Once this section collapses and both Huliaipole and Ternuvate are captured, Russia could attempt to encircle or semi-encircle Orikhiv, aiming to bring down the western defensive arc that shields the broader Zaporizhzhia salient.
[2] The most likely Russian plan is a breakthrough somewhere between Huliaipole and Ternuvate, with Ternuvate as the primary target due to its smaller size and weaker defensive potential. Huliapole would be pressured into a light siege, its logistics compressed, while offensive continue north of it.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[2] The most likely Russian plan is a breakthrough somewhere between Huliaipole and Ternuvate, with Ternuvate as the primary target due to its smaller size and weaker defensive potential. Huliapole would be pressured into a light siege, its logistics compressed, while offensive continue north of it.
[4] Movement between Orikhiv and Huliaipole is heavily restricted because T0408 run north-south supplying the area. This alone increases resistance against Russia's advance.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[4] Movement between Orikhiv and Huliaipole is heavily restricted because T0408 run north-south supplying the area. This alone increases resistance against Russia's advance.
[2] Beyond Huliaipole, the next defensive nodes are Ternuvate and then Pokrovske, with some hills and fortifications on top in-between
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[2] Beyond Huliaipole, the next defensive nodes are Ternuvate and then Pokrovske, with some hills and fortifications on top in-between
[3] Stepnohirsk - lone watchtower, in front of Komyshuvakha, Orikhiv, and the numerous settlements that fill the space between them.
From Orikhiv to Huliaipole is only about 30 kilometers too wide to hold, but the corridor is complicated by two ravines running through the area.
From Orikhiv to Huliaipole is only about 30 kilometers too wide to hold, but the corridor is complicated by two ravines running through the area.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[3] Stepnohirsk - lone watchtower, in front of Komyshuvakha, Orikhiv, and the numerous settlements that fill the space between them.
From Orikhiv to Huliaipole is only about 30 kilometers too wide to hold, but the corridor is complicated by two ravines running through the area.
From Orikhiv to Huliaipole is only about 30 kilometers too wide to hold, but the corridor is complicated by two ravines running through the area.
The core defensive chain looks roughly like this: Komyshuvakha - Orikhiv - Huliaipole - Ternuvate - Pokrovske.
This is the line Russia must break to move deeper into the Zaporizhzhia sector.
This is the line Russia must break to move deeper into the Zaporizhzhia sector.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
The core defensive chain looks roughly like this: Komyshuvakha - Orikhiv - Huliaipole - Ternuvate - Pokrovske.
This is the line Russia must break to move deeper into the Zaporizhzhia sector.
This is the line Russia must break to move deeper into the Zaporizhzhia sector.
[1] One critical feature to remember is the disappearance of the Kakhovka Reservoir, along with the reed beds that provide excellent concealment for both armies. Any remaining dry vegetation should be burned quickly rather than becoming an asset for the enemy.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[1] One critical feature to remember is the disappearance of the Kakhovka Reservoir, along with the reed beds that provide excellent concealment for both armies. Any remaining dry vegetation should be burned quickly rather than becoming an asset for the enemy.
[1] Zaporizhzhia has a structural vulnerability: the uninterrupted chain of settlements stretching from Prymorske along the former reservoir shoreline all the way to the city. This corridor is highly exposed to DRGs, while the main forces of Russia's Army Group East continue operating farther east.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[1] Zaporizhzhia has a structural vulnerability: the uninterrupted chain of settlements stretching from Prymorske along the former reservoir shoreline all the way to the city. This corridor is highly exposed to DRGs, while the main forces of Russia's Army Group East continue operating farther east.
[2] In contrast, the settlements along the Haichur are small and scattered, which makes the Haichur sector the only area truly suitable for a breakthrough. Still, both river lines are surrounded by relatively large settlements, and this is what creates the current Ukrainian defensive grid.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[2] In contrast, the settlements along the Haichur are small and scattered, which makes the Haichur sector the only area truly suitable for a breakthrough. Still, both river lines are surrounded by relatively large settlements, and this is what creates the current Ukrainian defensive grid.
[3] The Zaporizhzhia front is built around two rivers: the Konka and the Haichur.
Along the Konka lies a chain of settlements forming a dense rural agglomeration. The valley is similar to the Kryvyi Torets corridor, it forms a natural defensive arc with exceptionally strong cover.
Along the Konka lies a chain of settlements forming a dense rural agglomeration. The valley is similar to the Kryvyi Torets corridor, it forms a natural defensive arc with exceptionally strong cover.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 PM
[3] The Zaporizhzhia front is built around two rivers: the Konka and the Haichur.
Along the Konka lies a chain of settlements forming a dense rural agglomeration. The valley is similar to the Kryvyi Torets corridor, it forms a natural defensive arc with exceptionally strong cover.
Along the Konka lies a chain of settlements forming a dense rural agglomeration. The valley is similar to the Kryvyi Torets corridor, it forms a natural defensive arc with exceptionally strong cover.
They might like it
November 22, 2025 at 7:46 AM
They might like it
31 Killed, 94 Injured.
November 21, 2025 at 11:31 PM
31 Killed, 94 Injured.
Size of AFU is capped at 880K (Maybe 1M with all the complementary forces).
Eventually russian advance is limited by the meat ratio, if they will be able to scale they will be able to speed up, to some breaking point.
Apparently somewhere near x3 of 0 defenders.
Eventually russian advance is limited by the meat ratio, if they will be able to scale they will be able to speed up, to some breaking point.
Apparently somewhere near x3 of 0 defenders.
November 21, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Size of AFU is capped at 880K (Maybe 1M with all the complementary forces).
Eventually russian advance is limited by the meat ratio, if they will be able to scale they will be able to speed up, to some breaking point.
Apparently somewhere near x3 of 0 defenders.
Eventually russian advance is limited by the meat ratio, if they will be able to scale they will be able to speed up, to some breaking point.
Apparently somewhere near x3 of 0 defenders.
According to russian sources
they recruited 407K in 2024 and 336K by October 2025.
they recruited 407K in 2024 and 336K by October 2025.
November 21, 2025 at 11:14 PM
According to russian sources
they recruited 407K in 2024 and 336K by October 2025.
they recruited 407K in 2024 and 336K by October 2025.
In 2024
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
November 21, 2025 at 11:02 PM
In 2024
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.