Michael Liebreich
@mliebreich.bsky.social
Host @CleaningUpPod. CEO Liebreich Associates. Managing Partner Ecopragma Capital. Founder, Contributor @BloombergNEF. Ex Board TfL, Board of Trade. Olympian. Don't message me - I'm not prepared to give away personal data to prove my age. Srsly BlueSky!
Yes. Sales of hydrogen-fueled trucks have collapsed by 2/3, even in China.
November 20, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Yes. Sales of hydrogen-fueled trucks have collapsed by 2/3, even in China.
Nicht nur Individualverkehr!
November 18, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Nicht nur Individualverkehr!
Today's #HydrogenSoufflé comes from the heavy-duty truck market, which soared from absolutely nothing in 2020 to not-quite-nothing in Q4 2023, before collapsing to 1/3 of not-quite-nothing in 2025. If you think it's different in China, no: that's *including* China!
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
November 15, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Today's #HydrogenSoufflé comes from the heavy-duty truck market, which soared from absolutely nothing in 2020 to not-quite-nothing in Q4 2023, before collapsing to 1/3 of not-quite-nothing in 2025. If you think it's different in China, no: that's *including* China!
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Carlos, I know the technology - I bought my first SOFC in 2014 (ripped it out last year). SOFC requires firmed clean power, not cheap. You can't assume high-temp heat and steam is free, so your efficiency is 70% not 95%. And every green kWh you use could have had 2-9x the impact if used directly.
November 7, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Carlos, I know the technology - I bought my first SOFC in 2014 (ripped it out last year). SOFC requires firmed clean power, not cheap. You can't assume high-temp heat and steam is free, so your efficiency is 70% not 95%. And every green kWh you use could have had 2-9x the impact if used directly.
Thanks Eadbhard. Yes, I've noticed the resilience argument more and more lately. It's total bollox, of course. You don't buy €10/kg hydrogen for 25 years just because you're worried the gas price might go to the equivalent of €10/kg for a couple of weeks again.
November 5, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Thanks Eadbhard. Yes, I've noticed the resilience argument more and more lately. It's total bollox, of course. You don't buy €10/kg hydrogen for 25 years just because you're worried the gas price might go to the equivalent of €10/kg for a couple of weeks again.
Green hydrogen as a hedge against gas price shocks? Puh-lease. European gas prices exceeded a €5/kg hydrogen-price-equivalent for only 141 days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a €10/kg price for just 13 days. You don't pay €5-10/kg for 25 years for fear of a spike lasting a few weeks.
November 5, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Green hydrogen as a hedge against gas price shocks? Puh-lease. European gas prices exceeded a €5/kg hydrogen-price-equivalent for only 141 days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a €10/kg price for just 13 days. You don't pay €5-10/kg for 25 years for fear of a spike lasting a few weeks.
About to go live, keynoting the Innoenergy Business Booster 2025. We're going to be talking about what's next: pragmatism and electrification!
October 22, 2025 at 8:11 AM
About to go live, keynoting the Innoenergy Business Booster 2025. We're going to be talking about what's next: pragmatism and electrification!
Great. So do industry, transport, neighbouring provinces and further afield. I've yet to see an example of excess renewables that couldn't be used to greater impact, faster and cheaper than by being turned into hydrogen. You have to be at the point of 50% curtailment before making H2 makes any sense
October 13, 2025 at 5:14 AM
Great. So do industry, transport, neighbouring provinces and further afield. I've yet to see an example of excess renewables that couldn't be used to greater impact, faster and cheaper than by being turned into hydrogen. You have to be at the point of 50% curtailment before making H2 makes any sense
I'm good with that. It's called locational pricing - dump cheap power on whoever can use it. Guess what, anyone who owns a heat pump or EV will hoover it up, no more capex needed, and people who don't will buy them. Hydrogen boosters hate the idea - they can't win without their carrot mountain.
October 12, 2025 at 10:15 PM
I'm good with that. It's called locational pricing - dump cheap power on whoever can use it. Guess what, anyone who owns a heat pump or EV will hoover it up, no more capex needed, and people who don't will buy them. Hydrogen boosters hate the idea - they can't win without their carrot mountain.
Dear Chris - until the world is awash with green electricity, doing the things you list anywhere in the world is bad for the climate. If a wind or solar project can reduce emissions by 2-9 TCO2 selling power, why would you want it to make H2 and reduce them by just 1TCO2, at a multiple of the cost?
October 12, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Dear Chris - until the world is awash with green electricity, doing the things you list anywhere in the world is bad for the climate. If a wind or solar project can reduce emissions by 2-9 TCO2 selling power, why would you want it to make H2 and reduce them by just 1TCO2, at a multiple of the cost?
"When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea." But you should watch more YouTube... :-)
youtu.be/Nr3mIj5ZSfI?...
youtu.be/Nr3mIj5ZSfI?...
October 8, 2025 at 9:22 PM
"When the seagulls follow the trawler, it is because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea." But you should watch more YouTube... :-)
youtu.be/Nr3mIj5ZSfI?...
youtu.be/Nr3mIj5ZSfI?...
Is Cantona the guy with the YouTube channel?
October 8, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Is Cantona the guy with the YouTube channel?
There are cheaper ways of making clean nitrogen fertilisers, including cheaper ways of making clean hydrogen that do not include using green electricity that could have a 2-9x heater impact on emissions reduction if used directly.
October 8, 2025 at 8:07 PM
There are cheaper ways of making clean nitrogen fertilisers, including cheaper ways of making clean hydrogen that do not include using green electricity that could have a 2-9x heater impact on emissions reduction if used directly.
It's the *clean* hydrogen ladder, not the *green* hydrogen ladder. Green hydrogen proved much more expensive than we all thought, and there's no pathway to making it competitive in the next decade. And every kWh you use making it could have had 2-9x the impact if used directly.
October 4, 2025 at 5:42 PM
It's the *clean* hydrogen ladder, not the *green* hydrogen ladder. Green hydrogen proved much more expensive than we all thought, and there's no pathway to making it competitive in the next decade. And every kWh you use making it could have had 2-9x the impact if used directly.
WTF Bluesky? I have to verify my age to message my buddy @janrosenow.bsky.social
September 24, 2025 at 12:22 PM
WTF Bluesky? I have to verify my age to message my buddy @janrosenow.bsky.social
And you would need 4,400 RR SMRs to match the likely output of wind and solar power by 2050. 12b/n
September 14, 2025 at 4:27 PM
And you would need 4,400 RR SMRs to match the likely output of wind and solar power by 2050. 12b/n
As for SMRs, useful though they might be useful as elements in the energy system (perhaps to power AI data centres), as a climate solution they are largely irrelevant even if affordable. You would need 1,250 big RR SMRs to match the output of wind and solar today. 12a/n
September 14, 2025 at 4:26 PM
As for SMRs, useful though they might be useful as elements in the energy system (perhaps to power AI data centres), as a climate solution they are largely irrelevant even if affordable. You would need 1,250 big RR SMRs to match the output of wind and solar today. 12a/n
Two weeks after Blair's piece appeared, with a picture of @Climeworks's Mammoth plant in Iceland on its cover, the press in Iceland revealed that 16 years after its founding, Climeworks has still not captured enough carbon to offset its own emissions. 11/n
September 14, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Two weeks after Blair's piece appeared, with a picture of @Climeworks's Mammoth plant in Iceland on its cover, the press in Iceland revealed that 16 years after its founding, Climeworks has still not captured enough carbon to offset its own emissions. 11/n
To demonstrate how absurd the additivity thesis is (as well as being ahistorical and logical nonsense), I use a four-line model to show what happens if clean energy keeps growing faster than energy demand for a few more decades. TLDR: it pushes fossil fuels off the system. 9/n
September 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
To demonstrate how absurd the additivity thesis is (as well as being ahistorical and logical nonsense), I use a four-line model to show what happens if clean energy keeps growing faster than energy demand for a few more decades. TLDR: it pushes fossil fuels off the system. 9/n
And don't use green hydrogen until you run out of things to do with clean electricity.
September 12, 2025 at 8:34 PM
And don't use green hydrogen until you run out of things to do with clean electricity.
Here's the point. It takes a special sort of motivated reasoning to look at this chart and decide that redistributing the wealth of a few people in the developed world (G7+EU, the orange line) is the way to save the planet. By all means talk about tax and social policy. But don't make silly claims.
September 7, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Here's the point. It takes a special sort of motivated reasoning to look at this chart and decide that redistributing the wealth of a few people in the developed world (G7+EU, the orange line) is the way to save the planet. By all means talk about tax and social policy. But don't make silly claims.
Please identify which of my charts is biased. For instance this one shows that every kWh of green electricity could achieve 2-9x more emissions reduction if used directly, rather than for making green hydrogen. That's not bias, that's analysis. It suggests your tedious work is bad for the climate.
September 7, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Please identify which of my charts is biased. For instance this one shows that every kWh of green electricity could achieve 2-9x more emissions reduction if used directly, rather than for making green hydrogen. That's not bias, that's analysis. It suggests your tedious work is bad for the climate.
March 2007 - testifying before the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
September 4, 2025 at 5:47 PM
March 2007 - testifying before the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
Cammie (13) continues her artistic career with this delightful vignette of me at my desk, entitled "Daddy says 'cor, this is hard work'". Here's a link to her earlier work. bsky.app/search?q=fro...
September 2, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Cammie (13) continues her artistic career with this delightful vignette of me at my desk, entitled "Daddy says 'cor, this is hard work'". Here's a link to her earlier work. bsky.app/search?q=fro...