Mitch Henderson
@mitchhenderson.bsky.social
PhD | Sport, science, data
"This table turns 10,000 simulated rugby league seasons into one beautiful, instantly readable answer... It’s a great example of turning complex probability into actionable insight."
November 10, 2025 at 11:39 PM
"This table turns 10,000 simulated rugby league seasons into one beautiful, instantly readable answer... It’s a great example of turning complex probability into actionable insight."
How many wins do NRL teams need to make the finals?
I've FINALLY got around to posting some analytical writing where I use a Monte Carlo approach to simulate 10,000 seasons in #rstats to get practically useful finals probabilities.
mitchhenderson.dev/posts/2025-0...
tl;dr: Probably 13 wins.
I've FINALLY got around to posting some analytical writing where I use a Monte Carlo approach to simulate 10,000 seasons in #rstats to get practically useful finals probabilities.
mitchhenderson.dev/posts/2025-0...
tl;dr: Probably 13 wins.
January 27, 2025 at 5:03 AM
How many wins do NRL teams need to make the finals?
I've FINALLY got around to posting some analytical writing where I use a Monte Carlo approach to simulate 10,000 seasons in #rstats to get practically useful finals probabilities.
mitchhenderson.dev/posts/2025-0...
tl;dr: Probably 13 wins.
I've FINALLY got around to posting some analytical writing where I use a Monte Carlo approach to simulate 10,000 seasons in #rstats to get practically useful finals probabilities.
mitchhenderson.dev/posts/2025-0...
tl;dr: Probably 13 wins.