Mill Street Research
@millstreetresearch.com
Mill Street Research strategist Sam Burns, CFA, provides proprietary institutional research & tools on asset allocation, stock selection and the economy.
The market continues to show evidence of rotation as skepticism about high-priced AI-related companies has grown while money has moved into non-Tech areas lately, including Financials, Industrials, Health Care, and parts of Materials, and Consumer Discretionary.
December 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
The market continues to show evidence of rotation as skepticism about high-priced AI-related companies has grown while money has moved into non-Tech areas lately, including Financials, Industrials, Health Care, and parts of Materials, and Consumer Discretionary.
Broadcom's sharp decline today despite an apparent "beat" is less surprising after a 75% gain this year to push it to 43x its 2026 estimated EPS.
But the company stands out for its extraordinary run of 5+ years of consistent analyst estimate upgrades, so little wonder the multiple expanded.
But the company stands out for its extraordinary run of 5+ years of consistent analyst estimate upgrades, so little wonder the multiple expanded.
December 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Broadcom's sharp decline today despite an apparent "beat" is less surprising after a 75% gain this year to push it to 43x its 2026 estimated EPS.
But the company stands out for its extraordinary run of 5+ years of consistent analyst estimate upgrades, so little wonder the multiple expanded.
But the company stands out for its extraordinary run of 5+ years of consistent analyst estimate upgrades, so little wonder the multiple expanded.
Mill Street started publishing the Weekly Roundup report in January 2023. It includes a list of 20 high-ranked stocks from the Russell 1000 as buy ideas and 20 low-ranked stocks as avoid ideas.
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
December 11, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Mill Street started publishing the Weekly Roundup report in January 2023. It includes a list of 20 high-ranked stocks from the Russell 1000 as buy ideas and 20 low-ranked stocks as avoid ideas.
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
Diesel (heating oil) in particular has held up better than gasoline, which is better than crude YTD. All that = better profits for refiners.
Using YTD changes in NYMEX 12-month futures strips:
Diesel (NRGSHO12) -4.3%
Gasoline (NRGSRB12) -9.7%
Crude (NRGSCL12) -17%
Using YTD changes in NYMEX 12-month futures strips:
Diesel (NRGSHO12) -4.3%
Gasoline (NRGSRB12) -9.7%
Crude (NRGSCL12) -17%
December 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Diesel (heating oil) in particular has held up better than gasoline, which is better than crude YTD. All that = better profits for refiners.
Using YTD changes in NYMEX 12-month futures strips:
Diesel (NRGSHO12) -4.3%
Gasoline (NRGSRB12) -9.7%
Crude (NRGSCL12) -17%
Using YTD changes in NYMEX 12-month futures strips:
Diesel (NRGSHO12) -4.3%
Gasoline (NRGSRB12) -9.7%
Crude (NRGSCL12) -17%
Within the energy space, refiners have been the clear leaders relative to the rest of the sector, as refining margins have widened even while crude oil has fallen.
The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) is up 43% YTD while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF is up just 1.4%.
The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) is up 43% YTD while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF is up just 1.4%.
December 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Within the energy space, refiners have been the clear leaders relative to the rest of the sector, as refining margins have widened even while crude oil has fallen.
The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) is up 43% YTD while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF is up just 1.4%.
The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) is up 43% YTD while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF is up just 1.4%.
Another notable move today is ExxonMobil (XOM) which is rising on news it raised its longer-term earnings projections for 2026-30.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
December 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Another notable move today is ExxonMobil (XOM) which is rising on news it raised its longer-term earnings projections for 2026-30.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
The bottom line is that Tech looks much more attractive in our work than Communication Services (in the S&P 500), a shift after both were moving together for much of this year.
December 8, 2025 at 9:17 PM
The bottom line is that Tech looks much more attractive in our work than Communication Services (in the S&P 500), a shift after both were moving together for much of this year.
Notable that Ulta and Victoria's Secret both had strong earnings estimate revisions trends ahead of today's big jumps.
Both were ranked well in our MAER work ahead of today, especially VSCO.
Both were ranked well in our MAER work ahead of today, especially VSCO.
December 5, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Notable that Ulta and Victoria's Secret both had strong earnings estimate revisions trends ahead of today's big jumps.
Both were ranked well in our MAER work ahead of today, especially VSCO.
Both were ranked well in our MAER work ahead of today, especially VSCO.
META in the news, up 4% on news it is making big cuts to its flailing Metaverse group.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
December 4, 2025 at 4:01 PM
META in the news, up 4% on news it is making big cuts to its flailing Metaverse group.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
ADP employment data out today as we continue to wait for the "real" data from the BLS.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
December 3, 2025 at 4:37 PM
ADP employment data out today as we continue to wait for the "real" data from the BLS.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
UBS indices tracking various thematic stock baskets show crypto-related stocks have also fallen -32% from the peak, when they were +80%YTD, now 23%.
Giving up their earlier outperformance vs "AI Winners", which have held up much better lately, currently off -7% from their peak and up 44% YTD.
Giving up their earlier outperformance vs "AI Winners", which have held up much better lately, currently off -7% from their peak and up 44% YTD.
December 2, 2025 at 5:50 PM
UBS indices tracking various thematic stock baskets show crypto-related stocks have also fallen -32% from the peak, when they were +80%YTD, now 23%.
Giving up their earlier outperformance vs "AI Winners", which have held up much better lately, currently off -7% from their peak and up 44% YTD.
Giving up their earlier outperformance vs "AI Winners", which have held up much better lately, currently off -7% from their peak and up 44% YTD.
Small-caps had a big day, and big Tech recovered from its morning dip as other stocks outweighed the decline in NVDA today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
November 25, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Small-caps had a big day, and big Tech recovered from its morning dip as other stocks outweighed the decline in NVDA today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
Value outperformed Growth, continuing a choppy trend in place since Oct. 29th.
Move was broad, as 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up more than 1% today.
This is the chart that is getting a lot of attention lately: GOOGL vs NVDA, a large divergence now favoring GOOGL after moving together previously.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
November 25, 2025 at 4:55 PM
This is the chart that is getting a lot of attention lately: GOOGL vs NVDA, a large divergence now favoring GOOGL after moving together previously.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
News of Meta and Anthropic using Google chips (TPUs) has driven GOOGL up and weighed on NVDA. Alphabet also benefiting from its latest Gemini AI model.
Unlike Bitcoin, earnings estimates for the next 12 months for the NASDAQ-100 index continue to rise steadily.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
November 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Unlike Bitcoin, earnings estimates for the next 12 months for the NASDAQ-100 index continue to rise steadily.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
The 2026 estimate is currently about $892 per share, reflecting growth of about 17%, with the P/E on that estimate at 28x. High but not extreme if you believe the estimates and their trend.
According to Bloomberg's reporting, prices for future tariff refunds for importers are still trading in the 10-25 cents/dollar range, suggesting uncertainty is still high about whether refunds ever actually appear and when.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
November 14, 2025 at 5:20 PM
According to Bloomberg's reporting, prices for future tariff refunds for importers are still trading in the 10-25 cents/dollar range, suggesting uncertainty is still high about whether refunds ever actually appear and when.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
Only IEEPA tariffs are being decided, as shown in Bloomberg's graphic.
The UBS Speculative Growth index down -8.4% today, and down -34% from its Oct. 15th peak.
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
November 13, 2025 at 8:59 PM
The UBS Speculative Growth index down -8.4% today, and down -34% from its Oct. 15th peak.
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
"The basket tracks 80 stocks tried to early stage technological ventures like Quantum Computing, Space Exploration, Autonomous Driving, Rare Earths, Drones, Crypto, Nuclear, and Robots."
Earlier today OPEC said they now see a surplus for crude oil rather than a deficit in Q3 on higher than expected US and other non-OPEC production.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
November 12, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Earlier today OPEC said they now see a surplus for crude oil rather than a deficit in Q3 on higher than expected US and other non-OPEC production.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
Refiners are also using less crude lately due to maintenance and crude inventories have risen.
However, refining margins are up sharply recently.
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
November 12, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Pretty significant drop in crude oil prices today, reversing yesterday's gains, as signs of a growing surplus of oil are appearing.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
Futures prices touched contango today (current prices below future prices), often a warning sign of a near-term glut.
Prices now at 3-week lows.
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
November 11, 2025 at 7:31 PM
NVIDIA's stock has been more volatile lately, and it matters because of its nearly $5 trillion market cap.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Our work shows that analysts are still raising EPS estimates ahead of next week's earnings report, which is usually a good sign and suggests dip buyers will continue.
Private sources have been trying to construct data to fill in the gaps, but it is noisier and limited.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
November 7, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Private sources have been trying to construct data to fill in the gaps, but it is noisier and limited.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
Bloomberg has made an alt-data labor market index from 19 inputs that has sort of tracked the Fed's Labor Conditions index. It ticked up slightly at the latest update but remains in slowing mode.
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
November 6, 2025 at 8:51 PM
The UBS Profitless Tech index continues to weaken, now down about -14% from its mid-September peak and starting to threaten its trend.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
This is one proxy for the most speculative Tech stocks in the roughly $1 - 20B market cap range.
The NASDAQ-100 is only down -3.8% from its peak a week ago.
Fiserv (FI) in the news today with a historic plunge of about -40% after it slashed earnings guidance and announced major changes to leadership.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
October 29, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Fiserv (FI) in the news today with a historic plunge of about -40% after it slashed earnings guidance and announced major changes to leadership.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
As it turns out, our MAER stock selection tool showed negative trends in analyst estimate revisions and relative returns for months before today's news.
Notably, the S&P 500 High Beta index (volatile, but large-cap and almost all profitable) is holding up much better.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
October 22, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Notably, the S&P 500 High Beta index (volatile, but large-cap and almost all profitable) is holding up much better.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
Technology is 42% of the High Beta Index and Comm. Services is 5.3%, though today's big loser of Netflix is not in it, nor is Apple, but many Semis including Texas Instruments are.
Lots of junky momentum-driven stocks are getting hit today in the momentum unwind, like those in the UBS Profitless Tech index. It is down -3.4% today, and is currently only up about 4.7% year-to-date (vs 13.5% for the S&P 500).
October 22, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Lots of junky momentum-driven stocks are getting hit today in the momentum unwind, like those in the UBS Profitless Tech index. It is down -3.4% today, and is currently only up about 4.7% year-to-date (vs 13.5% for the S&P 500).
Stocks having a good day today after a choppy week last week.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.
October 20, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Stocks having a good day today after a choppy week last week.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.
While they are bouncing today, some of the super-high-risk stocks with little or no fundamentals have been lagging, while big-cap Tech/AI is doing well (chart, data through Friday).
Small-caps also bouncing pretty good today.